[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[jakarta]

That would lead to an instant world war?

I doubt it, as soon as the Russians knew there were F-35's up there they would ground themselves - as stated previously effectively a no-fly zone which would help the Ukraine massively.

It wont happen under Biden's watch of course...

 

[The Clamp]

One has to remember that Putin has been planning this, probably for years. He knows what his intentions are. We don’t.

 

[jakarta]

Because the no fly zone had to be imposed before invasion with F35s patrolling Ukraine skies.

Then Putin would have to make the call.


Now the dynamic has switched around.


But any Russian aircraft over NATO airspace will I'm sure get just 1 warning from now.

Any Russian aircraft over NATO airspace from now on gets no warning except a missile up its arse...

 

[Napper]

because that would be a direct act of aggression and a big escalation?

as opposed to the current Russian act of aggression and escalation

I can actually see Putins view on this ( away from the western propaganda ) but I'd like to see a harsher response than sanctions

 

[beorhthelm]

Yes, why didn't 'we' I wonder? Maybe Ukraine didn't want it?? Their leadership has been rather confusing and in denial these past few weeks, IMO, I'm sorry to say.

i dont think it was denial, it was their measured response. its been consistent, downplayed the movement of troops until last week, then held out hope on diplomacy until start of this week. i believe this was to maintain order and prevent panic, though did mean not mobilising army until yesturday.

 

[Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ]

as opposed to the current Russian act of aggression and escalation

I can actually see Putins view on this ( away from the western propaganda ) but I'd like to see a harsher response than sanctions

But what? It's easy to say but what follows sanctions if it isn't boots on the ground? Terrifying times

 

[heathgate]

One has to remember that Putin has been planning this, probably for years. He knows what his intentions are. We don’t.

He is a tad unhinged.. so unpredictable for sure,.. but he absolutely knows that win, lose or draw... his position and Russia's economy will be shattered. Given that, he isnt mad enough to take on Nato... not unless he gets some encouragement, I think China could be key here, they can either hold him back, or in worst case, spur him on whilst themselves expanding in south China sea.

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[The Clamp]

as opposed to the current Russian act of aggression and escalation

I can actually see Putins view on this ( away from the western propaganda ) but I'd like to see a harsher response than sanctions

I have no doubt that military forces across Europe know this will end in Military action. And they will be mobilising now for that eventuality. Sanctions are only ever going to be a precursor.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

One has to remember that Putin has been planning this, probably for years. He knows what his intentions are. We don’t.

Yep.

He mentioned following "the plan".

Presumably we don't have the info on what "the plan" is.

We are reactive.

A curve ball to set him off plan earlier would have helped.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

USA is the most powerful military state in the world, why are F-35's not shooting Russian aircraft out of the sky in defence of the Ukraine right now, it might send a message to Putin?

That would be a red rag to a psychopathic dictator and emblazon him with self righteousness, playing into his narrative.

I am under no illusions that if he sent a nuclear missile anywhere it would not be America first, it would be us, an Island with a long standing "special" relationship with America, an island that will have cut off their funds, an island where they feel free to come and murder without repercussions, an island that has stood up to tyranny before in Europe, an island that has left the EU, an island not connected to the rest of Europe, a powerful island is the sensible first strike.

That would send a message to the rest of Europe, the world, that stop, let me do what I want or the rest will follow.....

 

[nicko31]

He’d authorise snide chemical and biological weapon attacks in London, Washington DC etc.

We saw what he orchestrated in Salisbury and elsewhere.

Politicians, members of the public here just one touch or inhale from dying a slow death.

Putin would revel in the terror caused and destruction of far superior economies.

Don't underestimate cyber warfare, attacks on infrastructure like power grid, water...

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Don't underestimate cyber warfare, attacks on infrastructure like power grid, water...

And don't underestimate the "secrets" that Trump told his boss.

 

[Poojah]

Yep.

He mentioned following "the plan".

Presumably we don't have the info on what "the plan" is.

We are reactive.

A curve ball to set him off plan earlier would have helped.

This is my grave concern. If that plan happens to include Poland or the Baltics, the world is already doomed. Only Putin, and his inner circle, know what fate is in store for us all in the coming weeks and months.

 

[Napper]

That would be a red rag to a psychopathic dictator and emblazon him with self righteousness, playing into his narrative.

I am under no illusions that if he sent a nuclear missile anywhere it would not be America first, it would be us, an Island with a long standing "special" relationship with America, an island that will have cut off their funds, an island where they feel free to come and murder without repercussions, an island that has stood up to tyranny before in Europe, an island that has left the EU, an island not connected to the rest of Europe, a powerful island is the sensible first strike.

That would send a message to the rest of Europe, the world, that stop, let me do what I want or the rest will follow.....

The bomb would hit London , judging by this , we would probably survive it. Would expect a few nukes to be sent over in return

https://www.mylondon.news/news/local-news/incredible-map-shows-what-would-17138323

 

[Hamilton]

USA is the most powerful military state in the world, why are F-35's not shooting Russian aircraft out of the sky in defence of the Ukraine right now, it might send a message to Putin?

I'm rather delighted you are not in charge.

That would be an act of war by the part of NATO against Russia and escalate very quickly into mushroom clouds over Moscow, London and Washington.

Right now, I'd imagine that NATO will want to move forces up to the border and we'll see a significant increase in GDP spent on defence. Lockheed Martin will be delighted.

The cold war is back. Let's hop it thaws with Putin's waning power. Let's hope Putin doesn't feel cornered and do something stupid. He already appears to be nervy and unhinged. I'm guessing there's more to this than meets the eye domestically speaking back in Russia.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

That would be a red rag to a psychopathic dictator and emblazon him with self righteousness, playing into his narrative.

I am under no illusions that if he sent a nuclear missile anywhere it would not be America first, it would be us, an Island with a long standing "special" relationship with America, an island that will have cut off their funds, an island where they feel free to come and murder without repercussions, an island that has stood up to tyranny before in Europe, an island that has left the EU, an island not connected to the rest of Europe, a powerful island is the sensible first strike.

That would send a message to the rest of Europe, the world, that stop, let me do what I want or the rest will follow.....

Putin is paranoid about ‘interference’ from the EU. Remember Ukraine’s pro Russian President was deposed in 2014 for attempting to reverse closer alignment with the EU. There were many accusations of interference from the EU. Our membership is neither here nor there but I hardly think we would be singled out because of it. Geopolitical and historical realities and for being a driving force of the EU I would say that Germany has a lot more to worry about.

 

[peterward]

I agree. Completely. My only thought is that military action would be tempered by the threat of nuclear strike. I think at this point we have to assume Putin is capable of anything.

Most analyst still believe he is actually rational and does weigh his actions, however nefarious. The thing is if we dont and if we bow due to perceived threat he may use Nuclear, he will 100% do it again with another nation, like Moldova or the baltics.

You fight this today, or you appease and you face it again with an emboldened Putin. Right now the west has to do everything in its power to isolate, disrupt, support all opposition and utimately bring down this Tyrant.

If that involves another Cuban missile crisis, so be it. Personally and if you look at history, Russia has nearly always blinked when faced up to militarily by NATO.

You may enjoy this my friend https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/what-deters-russia

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

This is my grave concern. If that plan happens to include Poland or the Baltics, the world is already doomed. Only Putin, and his inner circle, know what fate is in store for us all in the coming weeks and months.

The likely outcome here is regime change in Ukraine which turns it into a Belarus-type lackey of Moscow. This will of course embolden Putin which could easily lead to something similar occurring in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - which as NATO members would be a whole different ball game and definitely WW3 potential. There are definite parallels with the Nazi invasion of Poland in 39

 

[herecomesaregular]

That would be a red rag to a psychopathic dictator and emblazon him with self righteousness, playing into his narrative.

I am under no illusions that if he sent a nuclear missile anywhere it would not be America first, it would be us, an Island with a long standing "special" relationship with America, an island that will have cut off their funds, an island where they feel free to come and murder without repercussions, an island that has stood up to tyranny before in Europe, an island that has left the EU, an island not connected to the rest of Europe, a powerful island is the sensible first strike.

That would send a message to the rest of Europe, the world, that stop, let me do what I want or the rest will follow.....

This is a bit too hysterical. Putin may be a madman but the semicircle briefing he gave showed all is not unified in the Kremlin. I can't see Russia on a full blown course to their own self destruction.

 

[pb21]

He is a tad unhinged.. so unpredictable for sure,.. but he absolutely knows that win, lose or draw... his position and Russia's economy will be shattered. Given that, he isnt mad enough to take on Nato... not unless he gets some encouragement, I think China could be key here, they can either hold him back, or in worst case, spur him on whilst themselves expanding in south China sea.

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China is undoubtedly the key player in how this pans out long term IMO. The fact that Putin held off until the end of the winter Olympics suggests to me that he is keeping China onside, hope that they don't get too pally.