[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[A1X]

Appeasement is frequently mentioned on this thread but what isn't mentioned is the Treaty of Versailles which had it been less severe and less 'not letting Germany get away with it' you may have been re-writing history not to have included the rise of Hitler.

The problem with Versailles was it ended up being neither one thing nor the other.

The French wanted to basically destroy Germany as a nation, turn it back into a medieval serfdom reliant on agriculture. The Americans wanted to give them a slapped wrist, accept they started it and pay some reparations to France and the Low Countries and then let them get on with it. As per usual, the British in the middle tried to fudge it and ended up with the half-cocked outcome which led to the rise of the Nazis.

 

[A1X]

Honestly this picture is so manly I think it’s made me pregnant.

 

[The Clamp]

Honestly this picture is so manly I think it’s made me pregnant.

It’s very Putin-esque.

 

[peterward]

I wonder if Putin sees it your way, too?

Appeasement NEVER works. Learn from history.

How many hundreds/thousands of innocent civilian deaths are acceptable?

Do you sit back not give a sovereign government the desired help it asks for to stop the murder themselves, or just watch and hope the crocodile eats you last?

What difference anti tank missiles, stingers or MIGS?

You cannot be guided by an evil tyrants threats, just what is asked of you to help avoid civilian murder.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I have a theory about these Migs being supplied by Poland (i'm in no way a man with military expertise).

I don't think Ukraine and going to use them against these Russian armoured columns. Firstly it's very risky. Anti aircraft weapons have had a good war and it's safe to say an attack on the columns would be met with an onslaught.

It's also risky for NATO for their planes to be aiming missiles at Russian soldiers.

I think they are likely to be used to hurt Russian logistics lines. So for example, blowing up the roads and bridges in front of the columns, would in effect stop these advancing even if they can get resupplied. Also rail lines and supplies from the east are the only things vaguely keeping this Russian show on the road.

Cripple those logistics, the fuel tankers, the east west bridges, the harbours captured by Russia, you can destroy the Russian war effort whilst reducing the risk of an all out face off with the military

 

[birthofanorange]

How many hundreds/thousands of innocent civilian deaths are acceptable?

A single death is unacceptable, as are hundreds and thousands, but the potential for the end of Civilisation is even more unacceptable, to me.

 

[peterward]

As I say, I hope you're right and I'll have no qualms about coming on here, egg on face, and doffing my cap in apology. It
If, however, you're wrong, I doubt that'll I'll be around to say "Told you so", and you won't be around to see it.

Thats more likely if you don't stand up now, than if you do.

 

[birthofanorange]

Thats more likely if you don't stand up now, than if you do.

We may well soon find out.

 

[rogersix]

People are getting a bit swept up in the social media whirlwind. Awareness is great but this is not the ice bucket challenge. Thankfully, as empowered as SM makes people feel, the decisions lie with experienced military professionals. There will not be a no-fly zone.

Controversially, I don’t agree with Zalenskiy’s address being broadcast. We don’t need “people power” right now. Save that for getting McDonalds to stop trading in Russia and getting the government to do the right thing.

We need rational requests and decisions on military action being made in war rooms by professionals. Unfortunately, rational decisions are not always made by politicians. Especially ones with almost zero experience and especially when bombs are raining down on them.

this public interaction won't be the only communication channel, and what does he need experience of exactly? if he's not brain dead and listens to experts, and cares, he'll make a good politician;

comparing him with a professional like bj?

 

[Eric the meek]

I also think things like McDonalds closing is big too. It’s easy to trivialise such things, but there is one major thing at play. Governments can hide all sorts of things from the public, and all the oil / gas stuff can be hidden from the Russian man in the street. But they’re going to notice that McDonalds is shut. And staying shut. You can’t hide that.

How very true.

Steve Rosenberg, BBC Moscow correspondent, had this to say:

'In 1990 I was in the queue when McDonald's opened its 1st restaurant in Moscow: when iron curtains were crumbling & Russia was embracing the West. Today McDonald's announced it is temporarily closing its 850 restaurants in Russia. Hugely symbolic.'

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

A fascist has invaded a sovereign nation on a pretext of lies, he's made veiled "stay away" nuclear threats, he's murdering innocents in their homes. Why would we not give Ukraine the military equipment they ask for?

Let's say we kowtow to this tyrants threats, and Ukraine loses thousands more lives, runs out if aircraft and Putin gets away with this genocidal invasion.

Is that world safer than giving what Ukraine legitimately asks for today?

Putin's menace would be even bigger, the costs to stop him much higher. There is no status quo option left.

No NATO boots, no nofly zone. Every military assistance Ukraine asks for short of direct involvement. Javelins or MIGS are both military assistance, we're not operating them, just providing them.

Russia's nuclear arsenal is designed for attacks on Russia, there are none. An out of control tyrant getting away with such heinous crimes by making nuclear threats is not going to change, the mask is off. We must grasp the nettle and bring him to his knees. There will be no peace, whilst he sits in the Kremlin.

People need to realise that the world of January 2022 is not coming back.

There is no return now to pre-invasion - that is impossible.

We are were we are.

Either Putin is contained now or we are arming ourselves until next time. Until his next nuclear threat.

It is a horrible situation to be in but war with Putin is inevitable now ( some say it already started in 2014, we just didn't realise ).

 

[birthofanorange]

It is a horrible situation to be in but war with Putin is inevitable now.

I disagree, but your opinion is as equally valid as mine.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I disagree, but your opinion is as equally valid as mine.

I actually hope you are right of course. I don't claim a 100% prediction rate either.


I mean a pause now could give time for him to have a heart attack etc. or some other deus ex machina event may occur.

The next one in charge may take a different course.

With Putin all I can see is war.

 

[birthofanorange]

I actually hope you are right of course. I don't claim a 100% prediction rate either.

I don't think anyone can, in this situation.

 

[The Clamp]

this public interaction won't be the only communication channel, and what does he need experience of exactly? if he's not brain dead and listens to experts, and cares, he'll make a good politician;

comparing him with a professional like bj?

I wasn’t comparing him with Johnson, no.

 

[Easy 10]

I also think things like McDonalds closing is big too. It’s easy to trivialise such things, but there is one major thing at play. Governments can hide all sorts of things from the public, and all the oil / gas stuff can be hidden from the Russian man in the street. But they’re going to notice that McDonalds is shut. And staying shut. You can’t hide that.

Indeed.

If Russians are anything like us Brits - who absolutely LOST THEIR SHIT when KFC ran out of chicken due to supply issues and called the police - then McDonalds closing down might just see people on the streets and the Kremlin getting sacked.

 

[Eeyore]

A fascist has invaded a sovereign nation on a pretext of lies, he's made veiled "stay away" nuclear threats, he's murdering innocents in their homes. Why would we not give Ukraine the military equipment they ask for?

Let's say we kowtow to this tyrants threats, and Ukraine loses thousands more lives, runs out if aircraft and Putin gets away with this genocidal invasion.

Is that world safer than giving what Ukraine legitimately asks for today?

Putin's menace would be even bigger, the costs to stop him much higher. There is no status quo option left.

No NATO boots, no nofly zone. Every military assistance Ukraine asks for short of direct involvement. Javelins of MIGS are both military assistance, we're not operating them, just providing them.

Russia's nuclear arsenal is designed for attacks on Russia, there are none. An out of control tyrant getting away with such heinous crimes by making nuclear threats is not going to change, the mask is off. We must grasp the nettle and bring him to his knees. There will be no peace, whilst he sits in the Kremlin.

Understood, but the crude reality is that justice is never even. And to reach the best available outcome you sometimes have to accept that you cannot have the best outcome. Sometimes in chasing the best outcome things are made worse.

Had I said to you, three months ago, that Ukraine was a politically divided nation that would achieve peaceful, and even prosperous, aims by dividing in some way. And then had I shown you the political map, you may have agreed with me. Had I explained the historical complexities about the eastward advance of NATO, and why Ukraine was a red line, some may have tried to understand more than resorting to the 'appeaser' jibe.

But then Putin did the unthinkable, something that we thought the US and allies were just bluffing and winding up over. Thus all of us joined the condemnation. But we are only doing what the world in general is doing. It's a human reaction. There is no justification for war. And shouting our hatred for Putin is not going to save a single life. The West is punishing Putin in the only way it can, weakening his position. Sanctions, heavy ones, was the best start.

But at some stage the reality of what was happening before his madness has to be addressed. Firstly to make it clear that, when taking characters out of the war, the original issues are being addressed. Secondly, in the name of humanity, to stop the bloodshed. How easy it is to bang the keyboard drums and watch others fight these battles, celebrating another tank being blown up or pouring over the stats to see who is winning. Come on, Ukraine !

But of course, ultimately our sympathy is with Ukraine, and the peaceful life that most of its citizens had before. The ordinary victims of a war which could have been long averted. And it is to them our duty, how ever much face is lost on both sides (and sometimes I wonder if Ukraine is a 'side' in this war or just the poor souls being forced to fight and flee it, to somehow hold their home and lives together).

As I said much earlier, I think Ukraine cannot join NATO, but has to have its own military. I think the Crimea and the East has to decide for itself. And I think, despite, it seemingly escaping justice, Russia will pay the price regardless for its aggression. I now believe this may actually come to pass. And God's speed to it. These folks have suffered enough while our keyboards burn with righteousness.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

People need to realise that the world of January 2022 is not coming back.

There is no return now to pre-invasion - that is impossible.

We are were we are.

Either Putin is contained now or we are arming ourselves until next time. Until his next nuclear threat.

It is a horrible situation to be in but war with Putin is inevitable now ( some say it already started in 2014, we just didn't realise ).

I don't think inevitable.

His army is shambolic, his economy in tatters, his position massively weakened.

I don't think he'll be overthrown, but I can see a plausible scenario where Putin is forced into a humiliating retreat and eaks out his days trying to preserve his position internally.

Personal view Even if he does manage to take and hold Ukraine (not looking good at the moment), he won't have anything like the strength needed to attack the massed ranks of NATO troops on Baltic borders.

We may be able to neutralise him

 

[Bold Seagull]

Appeasement NEVER works. Learn from history.

How many hundreds/thousands of innocent civilian deaths are acceptable?

Do you sit back not give a sovereign government the desired help it asks for to stop the murder themselves, or just watch and hope the crocodile eats you last?

What difference anti tank missiles, stingers or MIGS?

You cannot be guided by an evil tyrants threats, just what is asked of you to help avoid civilian murder.

Escalating a conflict doesn't help avoid civilian murder. It ups the count. If Ukraine and Russia can find an accord, then that will be the only way to avoid an escalating civilian death toll.

As much as you say appeasement NEVER works, neither does victory. Victory didn't work in WWI, it didn't work in WWII. It didn't work in Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Syria, Korea, any conflict you care to mention, there is no real victory only a huge death toll. Hitler and the Nazis may have been defeated in WWII, but Stalin was an equal to Hitler in his view to the value of human life. Learn from history and it isn't the winning conflicts that keeps death tolls down, it's diplomacy, treaties, agreements, concessions. Hitler doesn't exist if you exit WWI correctly. You then don't even have the term appeasement you keep quoting.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Understood, but the crude reality is that justice is never even. And to reach the best available outcome you sometimes have to accept that you cannot have the best outcome. Sometimes in chasing the best outcome things are made worse.

Had I said to you, three months ago, that Ukraine was a politically divided nation that would achieve peaceful, and even prosperous, aims by dividing in some way. And then had I shown you the political map, you may have agreed with me. Had I explained the historical complexities about the eastward advance of NATO, and why Ukraine was a red line, some may have tried to understand more than resorting to the 'appeaser' jibe.

But then Putin did the unthinkable, something that we thought the US and allies were just bluffing and winding up over. Thus all over of us joined the condemnation. But we are only doing what the world in general is doing. It's a human reaction. There is no justification for it. And shouting our hatred for Putin is not going to save a single life. The West is punishing Putin in the only way it can, weakening his position. Sanctions, heavy ones, was the best start.

But at some stage the reality of what was happening before his madness has to be addressed. Firstly to make it clear that, when taking characters out of the war, the original issues are being addressed. Secondly, in the name of humanity, to stop the bloodshed. How easy it is to bang the keyboard drums and watch others fight these battles, celebrating another tank being blown up or pouring over the stats to see who is winning. Come on, Ukraine !

But of course, ultimately our sympathy is with Ukraine, and the peaceful life that most of its citizens had before. The ordinary victims of a war which could have been long averted. And it is to them, how ever much face is lost on both sides (and sometimes I wonder if Ukraine is a 'side' in this war or just the poor souls being forced to fight and flee it, to somehow hold their home and lives together).

As I said much earlier, I think Ukraine cannot join NATO, but has to have its own military. I think the Crimea and the East has to decide for itself. And I think, despite, it seemingly escaping justice, Russia will pay the price regardless for its aggression. I now believe this may actually come to pass. And God's speed to it. These folks have suffered enough while our keyboards burn with righteousness.

I don't disagree necessarily, but those are decisions for the people of Ukraine and their leadership. It's not for the West or for Putin to be deciding their future as you suggest.