[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Icy Gull]

These are high stakes.

The west has committed to a full spectrum response, without committing to a full military one, yet.

Today was a biggie - the US, UK, and EU committing to reduce their reliance on Russian oil and gas, albeit on differing timescales. That's the best part of $1billion USD daily income, that Russia can kiss goodbye to, forever. It can't move the pipelines to point to China.

Putin will be under huge pressure now. Expect things to change somewhat.

Putin has made a massive error of judgement with this invasion. He is used to the West backing off and countries buckling. He has got this one wrong on so many levels. I really hope those that suggest he is not unhinged (I think he is) are right

 

[A1X]

Today was a biggie - the US, UK, and EU committing to reduce their reliance on Russian oil and gas, albeit on differing timescales. That's the best part of $1billion USD daily income, that Russia can kiss goodbye to, forever. It can't move the pipelines to point to China.

Putin will be under huge pressure now. Expect things to change somewhat.

I also think things like McDonalds closing is big too. It’s easy to trivialise such things, but there is one major thing at play. Governments can hide all sorts of things from the public, and all the oil / gas stuff can be hidden from the Russian man in the street. But they’re going to notice that McDonalds is shut. And staying shut. You can’t hide that.

 

[Hugo Rune]

100%, expect an escalation of threats. I think his bluff is being called now…to use an iconic NSC phrase..#holdthenerve

Putin will play his ace. Expecting this tonight or tomorrow:

“Any external arming of the Nazi Ukrainian regime will now be seen as an act of war, Russia will reserve the right to strike against any Country supporting this murderous, fascist and genocidal despot. Russia is fighting against true evil, you are either with us or against us.”

 

[The Clamp]

These are high stakes.

The west has committed to a full spectrum response, without committing to a full military one, yet.

Today was a biggie - the US, UK, and EU committing to reduce their reliance on Russian oil and gas, albeit on differing timescales. That's the best part of $1billion USD daily income, that Russia can kiss goodbye to, forever. It can't move the pipelines to point to China.

Putin will be under huge pressure now. Expect things to change somewhat.

I think this is going to escalate hugely overnight.
Now, I am behind Ukraine defending themselves . Of course I am.
But this will likely be viewed by Putin as Nato getting involved. Which means effectively Putin has decided when Nato are involved .
It would be possibly better for Nato to have planned our entry into this war.

An impossible situation.

 

[Icy Gull]

Putin will play his ace. Expecting this tonight or tomorrow:

“Any external arming of the Nazi Ukrainian regime will now be seen as an act of war, Russia will reserve the right to strike against any Country supporting this murderous, fascist and genocidal despot. Russia is fighting against true evil, you are either with us or against us.”

I hope NATO has a Joker in hand…

 

[The Clamp]

Push was always going to come to shove. I think this may be a turning point. Hopefully in our favour.

 

[WATFORD zero]

It's funny, I actually re-signed up in 2021. I previously left NSC and abandoned my previous account because of how toxic this place was.

It's actually worse now, so great news, I won't be posting anything further on this thread or any other. There comes a point at which expressing dissenting opinions becomes impossible, not because they are banned exactly, but you will be bullied and attacked and called a "scumbag". Silence isn't forced, it's self imposed. Ironically, kind of like how it works in Russia.

Pretty soon you are going to find that things have "improved", as everyone seems to agree with everyone else on here. But it won't because everyone does. It will be because nobody dares to say anything else.

2/10

Disappointingly, although you obviously have far more experience as a result of your previous flounces, you seem to be getting worse at it. Have you thought that maybe you have peaked and it's time to try something else.

Back on topic, I think that this ramping up of military support, economic and social sanctions is exactly the right thing to do. It will hit his military in Ukraine, his ability to supply them with what they need, the Russian economy and Russians on the street who are now used to having McDonalds, Credit cards, Online purchasing, worldwide sports, Facebook etc etc and don't expect shortages in the shops and runs on banks any more.

 

[Eeyore]

In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership

https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership?ref=tw

I think it's getting there if that has been removed. Russia would never agree to it, and it was a long way off anyway. Russia needs to stop the demand to dimilitarise (I got the impression they hadn't mentioned that recently). I think a binding referendum in the east and the Crimea question is now next.

I think there can be peace. Some might ask why Russia should be allowed to get away with it, but the truth is they will be licking their wounds for a long, long time if this does end in an agreement. There will be a huge political fall out internally- however they try to wrap it up. If Putin so much as steps on the cracks in the pavement there would be ramifications.

I've been lambasted for suggesting he needs to be offered a way out. I know it's not just, but the greatest injustice is further destruction and loss of life.

 

[A1X]

Some might ask why Russia should be allowed to get away with it, but the truth is they will be licking their wounds for a long, long time if this does end in an agreement. There will be a huge political fall out internally- however they try to wrap it up. If Putin so much as steps on the cracks in the pavement there would be ramifications.

I think it needs to be said that even if every sanction was lifted this evening the Russian economy is screwed for a generation. Plus it’s given Europe the kick it needed to wean itself off Russian energy, which isn’t going to be reversed (despite Farage’s latest whinge).

 

[The Clamp]

Oil sales currently generate £258m a day for Russia. Unless we seriously hit that, he is not going to be noticing many of our sanctions.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

It's funny, I actually re-signed up in 2021. I previously left NSC and abandoned my previous account because of how toxic this place was.

It's actually worse now, so great news, I won't be posting anything further on this thread or any other. There comes a point at which expressing dissenting opinions becomes impossible, not because they are banned exactly, but you will be bullied and attacked and called a "scumbag". Silence isn't forced, it's self imposed. Ironically, kind of like how it works in Russia.

Pretty soon you are going to find that things have "improved", as everyone seems to agree with everyone else on here. But it won't because everyone does. It will be because nobody dares to say anything else.

I completely respect your right to a dissenting opinion, personally I think you should feel free to continue to put it. Though I don't blame posters for reacting against it

Some of your posts, as far as I can tell have sailed pretty close to the edge of disseminating fake news. My personal advice, and i'm not a mod or anything, would be to check the veracity of what you post and take into account more the strong emotions which clearly run through this thread.

You could also post a couple of Brighton and Hove Albion bits of knowledge that a Brighton fan would know but you couldn't easily find on the internet. "What's you're favourite tackle by a Brighton player?" for example, as I know lots of people here don't believe you're an Albion fan, or even that you're English

 

[amexer]

I think it's getting there if that has been removed. Russia would never agree to it, and it was a long way off anyway. Russia needs to stop the demand to dimilitarise (I got the impression they hadn't mentioned that recently). I think a binding referendum in the east and the Crimea question is now next.

I think there can be peace. Some might ask why Russia should be allowed to get away with it, but the truth is they will be licking their wounds for a long, long time if this does end in an agreement. There will be a huge political fall out internally- however they try to wrap it up. If Putin so much as steps on the cracks in the pavement there would be ramifications.

I've been lambasted for suggesting he needs to be offered a way out. I know it's not just, but the greatest injustice is further destruction and loss of life.

Must not corner Putin. Must give him a way out.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I think it's getting there if that has been removed. Russia would never agree to it, and it was a long way off anyway. Russia needs to stop the demand to dimilitarise (I got the impression they hadn't mentioned that recently). I think a binding referendum in the east and the Crimea question is now next.

I think there can be peace. Some might ask why Russia should be allowed to get away with it, but the truth is they will be licking their wounds for a long, long time if this does end in an agreement. There will be a huge political fall out internally- however they try to wrap it up. If Putin so much as steps on the cracks in the pavement there would be ramifications.

I've been lambasted for suggesting he needs to be offered a way out. I know it's not just, but the greatest injustice is further destruction and loss of life.

Appeasement is frequently mentioned on this thread but what isn't mentioned is the Treaty of Versailles which had it been less severe and less 'not letting Germany get away with it' you may have been re-writing history not to have included the rise of Hitler.

 

[peterward]

It will likely be seen as NATO interference...no?

A fascist has invaded a sovereign nation on a pretext of lies, he's made veiled "stay away" nuclear threats, he's murdering innocents in their homes. Why would we not give Ukraine the military equipment they ask for?

Let's say we kowtow to this tyrants threats, and Ukraine loses thousands more lives, runs out if aircraft and Putin gets away with this genocidal invasion.

Is that world safer than giving what Ukraine legitimately asks for today?

Putin's menace would be even bigger, the costs to stop him much higher. There is no status quo option left.

No NATO boots, no nofly zone. Every military assistance Ukraine asks for short of direct involvement. Javelins or MIGS are both military assistance, we're not operating them, just providing them.

Russia's nuclear arsenal is designed for attacks on Russia, there are none. An out of control tyrant getting away with such heinous crimes by making nuclear threats is not going to change, the mask is off. We must grasp the nettle and bring him to his knees. There will be no peace, whilst he sits in the Kremlin.

 

[birthofanorange]

A fascist has invaded a sovereign nation on a pretext of lies, he's made veiled "stay away" nuclear threats, he's murdering innocents in their homes. Why would we not give Ukraine the military equipment they ask for?

Let's say we kowtow to this tyrants threats, and Ukraine loses thousands more lives, runs out if aircraft and Putin gets away with this genocidal invasion.

Is that world safer than giving what Ukraine legitimately asks for today?

Putin's menace would be even bigger, the costs to stop him much higher. There is no status quo option left.

No NATO boots, no nofly zone. Every military assistance Ukraine asks for short of direct involvement.

Russia's nuclear arsenal is designed for attacks on Russia, there are none. An out of control tyrant getting away with such heinous crimes by making nuclear threats is not going to change, the mask is off. We must grasp the nettle and bring him to his knees. There will be no peace, whilst he sits in the Kremlin.

As I say, I hope you're right and I'll have no qualms about coming on here, egg on face, and doffing my cap in apology.
If, however, you're wrong, I doubt that'll I'll be around to say "Told you so", and you won't be around to see it.

 

[essbee1]

Unilever pulling out.

There will be nothing of, or left in, Russia at this rate. People unable to buy anything, even if they had money. Total
and utter paralysis of the economy. Well done you **** Putin.

 

[Bold Seagull]

"What's you're favourite tackle by a Brighton player?" for example, as I know lots of people here don't believe you're an Albion fan, or even that you're English

 

[peterward]

Must not corner Putin. Must give him a way out.

Airspace exception to the Hague. Kleptocracy 8s a rewards and gifts based hierarchy. No money it will implode. Keep turning the financial screws.

 

[peterward]

Unilever pulling out.

There will be nothing of, or left in, Russia at this rate. People unable to buy anything, even if they had money. Total
and utter paralysis of the economy. Well done you **** Putin.

McDonalds too

 

[Lever]