[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

Yes, the demilitarise and don't join NATO I'm sure will go to far. I wonder if ceding Crimea and Donbas only (if 'palatable' for Ukraine) would be enough for Putin, probably not.

But if it is enough for both sides, I think Putin has to be the one offering it. And even then, it shouldn't end all sanctions. He should pay towards fixing the damage he's caused.

 

[vegster]

It's now been 'confirmed' on the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927 at 13:00

'Kremlin demands Ukraine recognise Crimea as Russian'

'Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Ukraine must recognise Crimea as Russian, and Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.
In addition to this, Peskov says Ukraine must amend its constitution and reject claims to enter any bloc (like Nato, for example).
He adds that Russia will finish the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine, and if these conditions are met Russian military action will "stop in a moment".
The Kremlin spokesman insists that Russia is not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine.'


So Russia wants it to stop if the above demands are met. But why?
Is it the toll on their military capability? Is it the Ukrainian resistance? Is it the sanctions? Is it internal anti-war protests?

Yesterday Putin was still going all out for complete control of the country, he was only going to contemplate a ceasefire if Ukraine were to unconditionally surrender. This seems very odd, the " Operation " was to de-Nazify and de-militarise Ukraine , something he objectively has failed to do. ? ( ok the Nazi bit is complete bollocks but that is his warped view ) Pulling back to Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk and getting them recognised by Ukraine as " Russian " will have cost Putin an awful lot of money, equipment and the possibility of almost endless sanctions and even a War Crimes trial. Seems a pretty poor return ?

 

[Eric the meek]

I would hope all four are behind this statement from the Kremlin. It's not for us to decide what happens next, but for the people of Ukraine. In the meanwhile we need to keep up the pressure and support, militarily, economically and socially until there is an agreement that Ukraine find acceptable

Absolutely. However, the pressure and support need to be applied - beyond - an agreement that Ukraine find acceptable.

You see, it isn't up to Ukraine to decide that we stop the sanctions.

If Putin wants to negotiate a separate agreement to lift or ease the sanctions, he will need to do that with the nations/blocs that have imposed the sanctions.

Further, if he wants to negotiate another separate agreement to restrict the 'expansion' of NATO, then that's a whole new agreement....

 

[pb21]

I don't understand this, but reading the full set of tweets I see that Russia has an 86% chance of defaulting, or something like that, massively up, unsurprisingly I guess.

[tweet]1500811965949628420[/tweet]

Is this the sanctions taking effect, and possibly behind the latest 'offer' from Russia?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

This sounds promising...

[tweet]1500800513541275649[/tweet]

Well we all know the Devil ( the Putin ) is in the Detail.

Not optimistic myself that this is all he'll settle for.


If it is an opening negotiating position and he then drops his block on Ukraine joining NATO / EU then he may get a deal, I suspect.


Ukraine probably needs to "Win" EU or NATO membership as "compensation" for losing Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and perhaps half the South Coast.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yesterday Putin was still going all out for complete control of the country, he was only going to contemplate a ceasefire if Ukraine were to unconditionally surrender. This seems very odd, the " Operation " was to de-Nazify and de-militarise Ukraine , something he objectively has failed to do. ? ( ok the Nazi bit is complete bollocks but that is his warped view ) Pulling back to Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk and getting them recognised by Ukraine as " Russian " will have cost Putin an awful lot of money, equipment and the possibility of almost endless sanctions and even a War Crimes trial. Seems a pretty poor return ?

You're right of course. He has already paid a very high price, with no guarantee of winning the war at all.

There's a big difference between the whole of Ukraine (yesterday's aim) to just the areas he effectively held before he began his war (today's alleged aim).
I'm very interested in finding out what has changed overnight, if indeed it has. What has caused him to blink?

What about the sanctions? Is he assuming they will be removed? They won't be if they aren't in the agreement.
What about further expansion of NATO? Is he expecting a veto on whether any other country joins NATO?

Lots for the west to say 'no' to.

 

[Eric the meek]

Ruble to USD 0.0072 USD.

GOING DOWN.

It's crashing.......

 

[Washie]

If I were Ukraine, I'd say no and try to take those regions back.

Sent from my SM-G781B using Tapatalk

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Ruble to USD 0.0072 USD.

GOING DOWN.

It's crashing.......

Soon actual monopoly money will be more valuable.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

You're right of course. He has already paid a very high price, with no guarantee of winning the war at all.

There's a big difference between the whole of Ukraine (yesterday's aim) to just the areas he effectively held before he began his war (today's alleged aim).
I'm very interested in finding out what has changed overnight, if indeed it has. What has caused him to blink?

What about the sanctions? Is he assuming they will be removed? They won't be if they aren't in the agreement.
What about further expansion of NATO? Is he expecting a veto on whether any other country joins NATO?

Lots for the west to say 'no' to.

What has caused him to blink ? If indeed he has.

Perhaps someone in the military has actually told him he is running out of missiles and ( my guess ) half his fighter jets won't take off ?

 

[Triggaaar]

There's a big difference between the whole of Ukraine (yesterday's aim) to just the areas he effectively held before he began his war (today's alleged aim).

You're suggesting that today's alleged aim is just Crimea and the Donbas region, but your own post 'confirming' that says they want the whole of Ukraine (ie, to demilitarise Ukraine).

I'm very interested in finding out what has changed overnight

Nothing has changed, according to your post.

 

[peterward]

This sounds promising...

[tweet]1500800513541275649[/tweet]

Promising how? It's what [MENTION=20814]amexer[/MENTION] suggests should also be considered. You're both mad.

To recognise stolen crimea and the puppet states taken by covert Russian forces, whilst also agreeing to change constitution to never join any blocs (NATO/EU) would be total capitulation and would collapse the Zelensky government.

What did those troops die for?
Is the this the gift after the murder of civilians and illegal reign of terror?

A lot of short sighted Neville Chamberlains on this thread

Putin would not stop, he'd declare victory, rearm and go again.

This has to be fought now and luckily Zelensky has more balls than our elected leaders and those here. Not 1 inch of territory should be conceeded.

fwiw, as Russia bleeds on the battlefield and financially, I believe there's a possibility (if the west continue to support Ukraine), they can get all territory back and win

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Promising how? It's what [MENTION=20814]amexer[/MENTION] suggests should also be considered. You're both mad.

To recognise stolen crimea and the puppet states taken by covert Russian forces, whilst also agreeing to change constitution to never join any blocs (NATO/EU) would be total capitulation and would collapse the Zelensky government.

What did those troops die for?
Is the this the gift after the murder of civilians and illegal reign of terror?

A lot of short sighted Neville Chamberlains on this thread

Putin would not stop, he'd declare victory, rearm and go again.

This has to be fought now and luckily Zelensky has more balls than our elected leaders and those here. Not 1 inch of territory should be conceeded.

fwiw, as Russia bleeds on the battlefield and financially, I believe there's a possibility (if the west continue to support Ukraine), they can get all territory back and win

You've demonstrated understatement in the part i've bolded!!

I think Ukraine might get their territory back as well. It's not the most likely scenario, but if conditions get really bad for Russian soldiers and they start throwing down their weapons en mass, it's not beyond the realms

 

[peterward]

You're right of course. He has already paid a very high price, with no guarantee of winning the war at all.

There's a big difference between the whole of Ukraine (yesterday's aim) to just the areas he effectively held before he began his war (today's alleged aim).
I'm very interested in finding out what has changed overnight, if indeed it has. What has caused him to blink?

What about the sanctions? Is he assuming they will be removed? They won't be if they aren't in the agreement.
What about further expansion of NATO? Is he expecting a veto on whether any other country joins NATO?

Lots for the west to say 'no'4 to.

What they offer is not just to keep territory. It's same as unworkable Minsk, that Ukraine changes it's constitution to rule out NATO or EU. That's against the wish of the people, that's to sacrifice a European future so Putin's Kleptocracy isn't threatened by Ukrainian success. It leaves Ukraine open to attack in future, when Putin, having learned from his errors will come back and try again.

Russia is about to get much weaker, and rivers of Ukrainian blood makes this impossible.

 

[Eric the meek]

You're suggesting that today's alleged aim is just Crimea and the Donbas region, but your own post 'confirming' that says they want the whole of Ukraine (ie, to demilitarise Ukraine).

Nothing has changed, according to your post.

Nothing, except the message.

The demands haven't changed, but they have been reworded. They've had a makeover!

Ruble to USD 00.0070 USD. Steady as she goes!

 

[CheeseRolls]

Promising how? It's what [MENTION=20814]amexer[/MENTION] suggests should also be considered. You're both mad.

To recognise stolen crimea and the puppet states taken by covert Russian forces, whilst also agreeing to change constitution to never join any blocs (NATO/EU) would be total capitulation and would collapse the Zelensky government.

What did those troops die for?
Is the this the gift after the murder of civilians and illegal reign of terror?

A lot of short sighted Neville Chamberlains on this thread

Putin would not stop, he'd declare victory, rearm and go again.

This has to be fought now and luckily Zelensky has more balls than our elected leaders and those here. Not 1 inch of territory should be conceeded.

fwiw, as Russia bleeds on the battlefield and financially, I believe there's a possibility (if the west continue to support Ukraine), they can get all territory back and win

I don't think anyone can "win" from here, but otherwise agree with your assessment. Putin's grounds for invasion were spurious and he can easily invent similar justification at a future point when he thinks his military logistics are strengthened. The opposition will be non-existent if Ukraine agrees to these terms.

 

[beorhthelm]

It's now been 'confirmed' on the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927 at 13:00

'Kremlin demands Ukraine recognise Crimea as Russian'

'Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Ukraine must recognise Crimea as Russian, and Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.
In addition to this, Peskov says Ukraine must amend its constitution and reject claims to enter any bloc (like Nato, for example).
He adds that Russia will finish the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine, and if these conditions are met Russian military action will "stop in a moment".
The Kremlin spokesman insists that Russia is not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine.'

that in bold is significantly different wording from the Reuters version, which attributes it as a direct quote (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www...-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07)

The Kremlin spokesman insisted Russia was not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine.

"We really are finishing the demilitarisation of Ukraine. We will finish it. But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot," he said.

in this version its infering the current operation is being succesfully run, which we all know it isnt. it is not a firm condition of ending hostilities, its spin.

 

[Springal]

[tweet]1500491702880153604[/tweet]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sun_(symbol)

Hmmm slightly worrying

 

[pb21]

Promising how? It's what [MENTION=20814]amexer[/MENTION] suggests should also be considered. You're both mad.

To recognise stolen crimea and the puppet states taken by covert Russian forces, whilst also agreeing to change constitution to never join any blocs (NATO/EU) would be total capitulation and would collapse the Zelensky government.

What did those troops die for?
Is the this the gift after the murder of civilians and illegal reign of terror?

A lot of short sighted Neville Chamberlains on this thread

Putin would not stop, he'd declare victory, rearm and go again.

This has to be fought now and luckily Zelensky has more balls than our elected leaders and those here. Not 1 inch of territory should be conceeded.

fwiw, as Russia bleeds on the battlefield and financially, I believe there's a possibility (if the west continue to support Ukraine), they can get all territory back and win

Well promising in the sense that the war would end, at least in theory. But I didn’t appreciate when I posted that tweet that it was also conditional on never joining any blocs. Also, whilst I said promising I wasn’t suggesting that this would be an ideal scenario.

But, Putin intended on taking over the whole of Ukraine, and its primarily down to all Ukrainians (Zelensky, troops and civilians) that this hasn’t happened yet. On this basis, if that was what it took to end this then both sides would have won and lost. Obviously only if Putin didn’t try this every again…

There is also the issue of what happens when Putin has gone, he thankfully won’t be around forever…

 

[Poojah]

Nothing, except the message.

The demands haven't changed, but they have been reworded. They've had a makeover!

Ruble to USD 00.0070 USD. Steady as she goes!

Not only is this a very good barometer of the effect the sanctions are having on Russia, it's also, in and of itself, a massive, massive problem for them.

The value of the Ruble has dropped by very nearly half in the space of a month (and dropping). That makes it very difficult (and expensive) to import anything, if that's if your trade partners haven't already sacked you off. If you're a company with contractual commitments, the cost of those contracts is now double what it was. DOUBLE! Almost overnight.

The only way you can begin to cope with that is to pass on the cost to the consumer, something which will only cripple the economy further, and cause even more public discontent (though some of that will undoubtedly be 'steered' towards the west).