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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)











Deportivo Seagull

I should coco
Jul 22, 2003
5,305
Mid Sussex
I don't think Putin is that short sighted. Just by creating a humanitarian disaster he has achieved one aim, and that's to destabalise Europe through a mass of refugees. My fear is that even if they wanted him gone, the security council is toothless. It's a one man crusade.

Sooner or later we will engage with him. It's about whether that's today, in a few months time or a few years. His ideology is fixed and driven by paranoia and pricked nationalist pride.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see any velvet revolution. There's no sign that the security forces inside Russia are holding off from dragging protestors off the streets. If there's a softening there then just maybe there will be mood change. Right now, he's got an iron grip.

My view is that he expected the West to crumble after the amount of interference he’s caused in the last 5 or 6 years. However if anything Europe is closer and more steely eyed than ever. He couldn’t (I don’t think many of us could) predict just how biblical the rest of the world has been regards sanctions. He thought that our greed and softness would prevent such sanctions being implemented. I mean, Switzerland shrugging of the shroud of neutrality to implant some **** off sanctions is an eye opener.
To say he has badly misread the room would be an understatement of biblical proportions.


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Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
My view is that he expected the West to crumble after the amount of interference he’s caused in the last 5 or 6 years. However if anything Europe is closer and more steely eyed than ever. He couldn’t (I don’t think many of us could) predict just how biblical the rest of the world has been regards sanctions. He thought that our greed and softness would prevent such sanctions being implemented. I mean, Switzerland shrugging of the shroud of neutrality to implant some **** off sanctions is an eye opener.
To say he has badly misread the room would be an understatement of biblical proportions.


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Add in the fact he is surrounded by "yes people".

Apparently they "wargamed" sanctions and he was given an "it'll all be fine" report.

I bet he's seething.
 




heathgate

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Apr 13, 2015
3,756
Has anyone got any idea what Putin's end-game is here? Assuming they "win" - they'll have lost thousands of troops and millions of roubles worth of equipment to achieve that, then half their military will need to be in and around Ukraine to prop up some puppet government, yet their economy (which is only the size of Spain's but with 3.5 times the population) is already going to be crippled as these sanctions bite deeper. Even if we take at face value their argument that they are worried about having a NATO state on their border, it doesn't really wash, because they already have NATO states on their border as Kaliningrad borders Poland and Latvia, and Latvia also borders the rest of Russia.

I am just baffled as to what they possibly expect to achieve. The humanitarian cost will go far beyond the poor people of Ukraine - every day Russians are already being deeply affected too.
They already have NATO states on their borders, that's the thing,... without any overt threat to the Russian way of life. Turkey, Baltic states... why the big issue with Ukraine?

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Deportivo Seagull

I should coco
Jul 22, 2003
5,305
Mid Sussex
Add in the fact he is surrounded by "yes people".

Apparently they "wargamed" sanctions and he was given an "it'll all be fine" report.

I bet he's seething.

The problem he has is that it doesn’t matter who gave him the duff information. He always takes the credit so now it sits firmly on his lap. He has no friends and at a time like this he needs friends.


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Feb 23, 2009
23,995
Brighton factually.....
I heard an analyst / psychiatrist talk about Putin, and the fact since covid started he has become insular and does not travel far if at all, keeps himself to himself, will only meet trusted and tested members of staff and is petrified of catching it. She even suggested that large long tables keeping him and dignitaries apart is not a snub, but his fear, and because of this fear he has become more and more insular and has time on his hands to think and think, which is dangerous when your sane never mind bat shite crazy.
 




Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
The problem he has is that it doesn’t matter who gave him the duff information. He always takes the credit so now it sits firmly on his lap. He has no friends and at a time like this he needs friends.


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[tweet]1498659966001025027[/tweet]
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
27,353
My view is that he expected the West to crumble after the amount of interference he’s caused in the last 5 or 6 years. However if anything Europe is closer and more steely eyed than ever. He couldn’t (I don’t think many of us could) predict just how biblical the rest of the world has been regards sanctions. He thought that our greed and softness would prevent such sanctions being implemented. I mean, Switzerland shrugging of the shroud of neutrality to implant some **** off sanctions is an eye opener.
To say he has badly misread the room would be an understatement of biblical proportions.


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As you pointed out, he wasn't the only one, and I can't be more pleased to be proven wrong. More of the same is definitely the sensible way to stop the conflict :thumbsup:
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
11,975
My view is that he expected the West to crumble after the amount of interference he’s caused in the last 5 or 6 years. However if anything Europe is closer and more steely eyed than ever. He couldn’t (I don’t think many of us could) predict just how biblical the rest of the world has been regards sanctions. He thought that our greed and softness would prevent such sanctions being implemented. I mean, Switzerland shrugging of the shroud of neutrality to implant some **** off sanctions is an eye opener.
To say he has badly misread the room would be an understatement of biblical proportions.


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Not only Switzerland, but Monaco too, with Malta in the EU, just needs us to sort out the British carribean tax havens.
 


Deportivo Seagull

I should coco
Jul 22, 2003
5,305
Mid Sussex
As you pointed out, he wasn't the only one, and I can't be more pleased to be proven wrong. More of the same is definitely the sensible way to stop the conflict :thumbsup:

I like to think that this is down to human decency but I reckon there are few highly placed individuals who took the Putin rouble and who are desperately trying to right the wrong.


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Commander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Apr 28, 2004
13,377
London
I just read that Ukraine claim 5,700 Russian troops have been killed so far. Surely that is bullshit? It’s more US soldiers than were killed in the whole of the Iraq war. If that figure is anywhere near true, then I can't imagine public opinion back in Russia is going to be supportive for very long.
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
11,975
I heard an analyst / psychiatrist talk about Putin, and the fact since covid started he has become insular and does not travel far if at all, keeps himself to himself, will only meet trusted and tested members of staff and is petrified of catching it. She even suggested that large long tables keeping him and dignitaries apart is not a snub, but his fear, and because of this fear he has become more and more insular and has time on his hands to think and think, which is dangerous when your sane never mind bat shite crazy.

Theres more, I read from an ex advisor that he doesnt have a mobile as paranoid it could be used to kill him, doesnt ever look at the internet, so his information bubble is a small group of advisors, his own deep seated hatred and grievances and Russian state propaganda.
 


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