[Albion] Record amount of points to go down

[Gazwag]

I’d love it if we sent them down.

Bong hits a shot in the last minute from 25 yards which is flying wide until it hits unproven in the face and flies into the back of the net, the stuff that dreams are made of

 

[blue-shifted]

Bong hits a shot in the last minute from 25 yards which is flying wide until it hits unproven in the face and flies into the back of the net, the stuff that dreams are made of

It would make it quite tempting to bring him on to take a last minute penalty that's for sure.

Though Burnley are on the same points as us. They'll be thinking they can put us down

 

[blue-shifted]

I prefer to think a point a game from now on should see us safe.

It would be remarkable if it didn't

 

[Surrey Phil]

Of the "big six" sides, after 21 games we have played 8 matches against them and have played them all away. That means for our last 17 games we only have to play 4 of them and all at home. This is massively in our favour this season!

 

[FatSuperman]

There are currently only 15 teams with more than 1 point per game so far. If that continues we will have 15 teams above 38 points with the other 5 teams on 38 or less. This doesn't account for 2nd half improvements or teams falling apart

Agree! As of today, there are 17 teams on 1 or more point per game, which if everyone carries on with their average return, would give you 38 points for 17th place. The other three would finish on 25, 34 and 36 and a bit points.

Ignoring goal difference, the highest-ever total needed for PL safety was 43 points (West Ham went down on 42 in 02/03). On that basis, a team would need to average 1.13 points per game. Everyone from Burnley (15th) is achieving that. Ironically, the team closest to missing that 43 point cut off is West Ham, who are 'on track' for 42 points this season.

Just looking at the current bottom five, who are the only ones not on track for 43 points, they would have to massively step their game up;

• West Ham would need 1.24 ppg (in between the current rate that Arsenal & Everton are achieving)
• Villa would need 1.29 ppg and thus be bettering Arsenal's return, and effectively put in a 10th place performance from here on
• Bournemouth would need 1.35 ppg, which is just below Wolves (if you account that Sheffield Utd should actually be a couple of places higher based on their ppg return - having played 1 fewer games) and would mean they'd have to at least equal the performance of their best-ever top-flight campaign, for the second half of the season.
• Watford would need 1.4 ppg to hit 43 points, which is better than Spurs have been doing to date, and just below the Blades. This one might be possible, given their past 5 games have netted 2 ppg, and they included matches vs Man U and Liverpool. It implies a level of consistency that I can't see them maintaining, imo.
• Norwich would need 1.7 ppg, which would mean they would be putting in performances that would typically be good enough for a Champions League spot. Despite what Jake Humphrey's might hope, that is not happening before hell freezes over.

So, in short, it is exceedingly unlikely that this is going to be a record amount of points to go down season.

 

[blue-shifted]

Of the "big six" sides, after 21 games we have played 8 matches against them and have played them all away. That means for our last 17 games we only have to play 4 of them and all at home. This is massively in our favour this season!

There's a counter argument here along the lines of "you'll lose to the big 6 anyway, so you may as well have them away and be facing the winnable mid table teams at home"

That was probably true for the last couple of years, but much less so this time round, it only really applies to Liverpool.

Also we look just as likely to pick up results away as at home.

What is undeniable is that we've played two well above average teams twice and this will certainly count in our favour.

 

[blue-shifted]

Agree! As of today, there are 17 teams on 1 or more point per game, which if everyone carries on with their average return, would give you 38 points for 17th place. The other three would finish on 25, 34 and 36 and a bit points.

Ignoring goal difference, the highest-ever total needed for PL safety was 43 points (West Ham went down on 42 in 02/03). On that basis, a team would need to average 1.13 points per game. Everyone from Burnley (15th) is achieving that. Ironically, the team closest to missing that 43 point cut off is West Ham, who are 'on track' for 42 points this season.

Just looking at the current bottom five, who are the only ones not on track for 43 points, they would have to massively step their game up;

• West Ham would need 1.24 ppg (in between the current rate that Arsenal & Everton are achieving)
• Villa would need 1.29 ppg and thus be bettering Arsenal's return, and effectively put in a 10th place performance from here on
• Bournemouth would need 1.35 ppg, which is just below Wolves (if you account that Sheffield Utd should actually be a couple of places higher based on their ppg return - having played 1 fewer games) and would mean they'd have to at least equal the performance of their best-ever top-flight campaign, for the second half of the season.
• Watford would need 1.4 ppg to hit 43 points, which is better than Spurs have been doing to date, and just below the Blades. This one might be possible, given their past 5 games have netted 2 ppg, and they included matches vs Man U and Liverpool. It implies a level of consistency that I can't see them maintaining, imo.
• Norwich would need 1.7 ppg, which would mean they would be putting in performances that would typically be good enough for a Champions League spot. Despite what Jake Humphrey's might hope, that is not happening before hell freezes over.

So, in short, it is exceedingly unlikely that this is going to be a record amount of points to go down season.

I think at least 2 of those bottom 5 will make it to 42 points. And some of those results will be against current mid table sides sending them down towards the mire.

 

[CheeseRolls]

When there are no crap teams getting tailed off and consistently beaten by other non Big 6 teams, it’s 36 to stay up. When there are crap teams, it’s 40. This season looks like a “36” season.

Agreed - the media interest will be around the lower European places, where there is not much between a whole host of teams and the relegation scrap, which looks tight. Norwich could just collapse, I think they will go down, but not without a fight. everyone else seems up for the fight and for a record number of points to stay up, you may need two to completely fall away.

Currently we haven't got a massive cushion to the relegation zone, but logically if the hurdle is high and two teams collapse, there is only one space we could then fill. Given or goal difference, objectively we shouldn't be overly worried at this point. We would need a collapse in form and results to get dragged in.

I just hope we don't reach the end of January with Potter saying he was happy with his squad anyway, which was the slippery slope that Houghton stood at the top of.

 

[blue-shifted]

Objective positives for us

We’ve got a decent GD
We’re less reliant on 1 or 2 key players than the teams around us (not to say losing Maty, Lewis, Aaron, Leandro or Neal to injury wouldn’t smart a bit)
There are a lot of teams near us. So lots of potential for 1 or 2 to go on a poor run
We’ve played two of the tougher teams twice
We’re unlikelier than some of our rivals to sell key players in January
Our younger players, eg, Connolly, Alzate will have had half a season to get up to speed. (not too many of our rivals are bringing youth through in this way)
GP’s style is becoming more embedded every game (the risk this season was a poor start whilst we adapted our style)

Objective negatives for us

Other clubs, possibly more reactionary ones, will have new manager bounces
Other clubs, possibly more reactionary ones, may look to spend bigger in January than we will

 

[blue-shifted]

Agreed - the media interest will be around the lower European places, where there is not much between a whole host of teams and the relegation scrap, which looks tight. Norwich could just collapse, I think they will go down, but not without a fight. everyone else seems up for the fight and for a record number of points to stay up, you may need two to completely fall away.

Currently we haven't got a massive cushion to the relegation zone, but logically if the hurdle is high and two teams collapse, there is only one space we could then fill. Given or goal difference, objectively we shouldn't be overly worried at this point. We would need a collapse in form and results to get dragged in.

I just hope we don't reach the end of January with Potter saying he was happy with his squad anyway, which was the slippery slope that Houghton stood at the top of.

Agree.

It's always better to buy players from a position of strength. It's much harder to buy decent ones if you're in the relegation zone or before the season starts when to an outsider, you're no more likely to stay up that anyone other than the promoted teams.

 

[symyjym]

I think the points to go down could be a lot higher than last year because the bottom teams have more points and we have seen a bit of a revival of struggling teams like Watford, Everton and Shampton.

Last year we were 10 points ahead of the relegation place and this year we are only 4 points above: https://www.premierleague.com/tables?co=1&se=210&ha=-1

This year could be a 40 pointer for safety

 

[Bozza]

After 21 games last season, Arsenal sat in 5th place on 41 points. This year, at the same stage, 31 points is enough for 5th.

Combined, the top six had accrued 272 points. This year, they only have 241 points.

 

[Icy Gull]

After 21 games last season, Arsenal sat in 5th place on 41 points. This year, at the same stage, 31 points is enough for 5th.

Combined, the top six had accrued 272 points. This year, they only have 241 points.

View attachment 118779

Wow the bottom of the table is so much tighter, I had forgotten that we were a full 10 points clear of the relegation zone at this stage last season.

 

[giveusfalmerplease]

https://www.premierleague.com/tables?co=1&se=210&ha=-1[/url]

This year could be a 40 pointer for safety

Weirdly if you change that filter to show home games only we are in SEVENTH place.
https://www.premierleague.com/tables?co=1&se=274&ha=H

 

[Bozza]

Wow the bottom of the table is so much tighter, I had forgotten that we were a full 10 points clear of the relegation zone at this stage last season.

This was immediately after we'd thrown away the 2-goal lead at West Ham too - we could (should) have been 10th and 12 points clear.

 

[Weststander]

After 21 games last season, Arsenal sat in 5th place on 41 points. This year, at the same stage, 31 points is enough for 5th.

Combined, the top six had accrued 272 points. This year, they only have 241 points.

View attachment 118779

Everyone’s feeling about this current PL was correct. By contrast:

Bmuff 20 points
Watford 19 points (& in some form)
Norwich 14 points

 

[blue-shifted]

The table also shows how much closer the bottom teams are. 19th place this season is 19 points after 21 games. 14 points last year.

No bad teams this year. Norwich are way better than Huddersfield were and a bit better than the Fulham team from last year.

 

[Wardy's twin]

One thing potentially in our favour is that we have played well and have not got the points we might have so hopefully luck will kick in.

 

[West Upper Seagull]

One thing in our favour is that the teams we've played twice are Spurs and Chelsea. We have to make hay while the sun shines (relatively speaking) over the next couple of months.

In addition to this our games left against the other big 6 are all at home which can surely make us more competitive in these games to get some sort of result. Based on our performances so far I’d like to think that our games at home to Arsenal and Man Utd are very winnable and maybe we could sneak draws against Liverpool and Man City if they’re not on top of their game !

 

[Driver8]

In addition to this our games left against the other big 6 are all at home which can surely make us more competitive in these games to get some sort of result. Based on our performances so far I’d like to think that our games at home to Arsenal and Man Utd are very winnable and maybe we could sneak draws against Liverpool and Man City if they’re not on top of their game !

Liverpool could be champions by the time we play them and resting players for other competitions.