NMH
Banned
This can't take into account the teams do still play each other, so although they can't be named (because we can't know the results), fewer clubs can actually overhaul us than 9
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*** Official can´t catch us thread ***
- Thread starter murciagull
- Start date
Just emailed this to every supporter of a league 1 team that I know.
thanking you
You're welcome.
Joe Gatting's Dad
New member
Five wins and a draw for promotion - six wins and a draw for the championship - then no one can catch us.
This reduces every time one of 2-10 play one another or do not win. The lower teams will automatically drop out every time they do not match our result.
This reduces every time one of 2-10 play one another or do not win. The lower teams will automatically drop out every time they do not match our result.
I've just looked through the fixtures of all the teams that could catch us, and...
We currently have 77 points. So...
Charlton and Carlisle would have to win every game. If they lose even one, they have to go below us. They have already both played each other, so in theory, they can both go above us. The others can afford to lose more than one game.
After Charlton and Carlisle (current max 79 points) is rochdale (84 max points). Charlton have to play Rochdale twice, but even if charlton beat rochdale in those games, if rochdale win all their other games, they will end on 78 points.
Next come orient (87pts) who can drop 9. That could be 3 v Charlton, 6 v Carlisle win their other games and end on 78.
Next come Bournemouth and MK Dons on 88 pts max. Meaning they can drop 10. MK can drop 3 to Carlisle, and have room to drop 3 to southampton and huddersfield. Bournemouth can drop three to charlton, peterborough and rochdale.
Next come Huddersfield, a max of 91 meaning they can drop 13 points. Can afford to drop points to Charlton, Peterborough, MK Dons, and still finish on more than 77.
Next up are peterborough on 92 who can drop 14. Can afford to drop points to Bournemouth, Orient, Huddersfield, and Rochdale and still finishon more than 77.
That leaves southampton who can max our on 95 points. They can drop 17 points. Their next four games are v Dons, Charlton, Orient, and Rochdale. They could lose all four of them and still finish on more than 77.
Which means, no, there aren't any other teams that currently are guaranteed to finish below us. It is currently possible for all teams not highlighted in red on that table to finish on more than 77 points despite games against each other. Sadly.
(I think I've worked it out right)
Blackadder
Brighton Bhuna Boy
Some might say you have too much time on your hands Acker
but I love this sort of stuff. Well thought out!
We can put these two out of their misery by winning tomorrow - so they cannot reach our 80 point total. Game over.
Carlisle could join the list sooner than that, if they lose at Brentford tonight.
Some might say you have too much time on your hands Acker
Not quite enough time. I just double checked, this time I created a table with calculations and everything, and one of Rochdale, Charlton or Carlisle would drop below us. Rochdale have to play Charlton twice, and I missed that, so either they beat charlton once, resulting in charlton going down, or they beat carlisle, meaning carlisle go down. I'm sure that will all change in 15 minutes. I'll wait for this evenings games before posting my little table.
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Cantona's Flying Dropkick
vidi vici veni
Carlisle can't catch now after loss at Brentford tonight.
No if about it.
Here's my table showing upcoming games between the teams that can possibly catch us, showing where/how they can drop points to each other and still beat the current target of 77 to overtake us. The total points is what they would end on if the results listed occur, i.e. Southampton can lose to Charlton, Orient, Rochdale and MK Dons would be able to finish on a maximum of 83)
- means both home and away fixture played.
(sorry if the writing is too small, I was concerned about fitting it to the page)
- means both home and away fixture played.
(sorry if the writing is too small, I was concerned about fitting it to the page)
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Here's my table, updated eliminating Carlisle (I mean, since they can't catch us now, they can lose without it changing who can catch us)
- means both home and away fixture played.
(sorry if the writing is too small, I was concerned about fitting it to the page)
that confuses me as Scumhampton can finish on 95 not 83
that confuses me as Scumhampton can finish on 95 not 83
Sorry, this table is about the teams that can get more than our current total (77pts), and whether all the teams can get over 77 at the same time. It follows on from post number 44 on this thread (and the correction to it in post 49).
NMH suggested that although the table posted by Whitelion showed 14 teams couldn't catch us, there had to be more that wouldn't be able to catch us because they would take points off of another team that needs them to beat us. That is to say, Charlton have to win all their games to finish on more than 77, this includes getting 3 points off Orient. Can orient afford to drop those 3 points and still make 77? (Yes they can as the table shows).
That table shows how Southampton can lose to Charlton, Orient, Rochdale and Mk Dons, allowing them to get the points needed to overtake us, by managing to make 83 points from wins in their other matches (against teams who can't catch us).
(Sorry if I'm repeating myself with that explanation, just trying to make it clear).
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aaahhh thanks yeah I get it now!
Lord Bracknell
On fire
The current list:-
Carlisle United
Brentford
Colchester United
Hartlepool United
Exeter City
Oldham Athletic
Sheffield Wednesday
Notts County
Tranmere Rovers
Yeovil Town
Dagenham & Redbridge
Walsall
Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town
Plymouth Argyle
Charlton Athletic could join the list this afternoon.
Carlisle United
Brentford
Colchester United
Hartlepool United
Exeter City
Oldham Athletic
Sheffield Wednesday
Notts County
Tranmere Rovers
Yeovil Town
Dagenham & Redbridge
Walsall
Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town
Plymouth Argyle
Charlton Athletic could join the list this afternoon.
Just an update before today's games:
Npower League One table
Saturday, 26 March 2011 00:00 UK
Position Team P GD PTS
Full Npower League One table
1 Brighton 36 40 77
2 Huddersfield 38 19 67
3 Peterborough 38 24 66
4 Southampton 36 34 65
5 MK Dons 39 7 65
6 Bournemouth 37 21 61
7 Leyton Orient 36 14 57
8 Rochdale 36 7 54
9 Carlisle 38 2 52
10 Brentford 38 -5 52
11 Colchester 38 -6 51
12 Hartlepool 39 -16 50
13 Charlton 36 -1 49
14 Exeter 37 -8 49
15 Oldham 38 -8 46
16 Sheff Wed 36 -4 43
17 Notts County 35 -4 42
18 Tranmere 36 -8 42
19 Yeovil 36 -17 41
20 Dag & Red 35 -9 40
21 Walsall 39 -16 40
22 Bristol R 38 -31 37
23 Swindon 37 -17 34
24 Plymouth 38 -18 33
Npower League One table
Saturday, 26 March 2011 00:00 UK
Position Team P GD PTS
Full Npower League One table
1 Brighton 36 40 77
2 Huddersfield 38 19 67
3 Peterborough 38 24 66
4 Southampton 36 34 65
5 MK Dons 39 7 65
6 Bournemouth 37 21 61
7 Leyton Orient 36 14 57
8 Rochdale 36 7 54
9 Carlisle 38 2 52
10 Brentford 38 -5 52
11 Colchester 38 -6 51
12 Hartlepool 39 -16 50
13 Charlton 36 -1 49
14 Exeter 37 -8 49
15 Oldham 38 -8 46
16 Sheff Wed 36 -4 43
17 Notts County 35 -4 42
18 Tranmere 36 -8 42
19 Yeovil 36 -17 41
20 Dag & Red 35 -9 40
21 Walsall 39 -16 40
22 Bristol R 38 -31 37
23 Swindon 37 -17 34
24 Plymouth 38 -18 33
marcos3263
Well-known member
This needs a update. I'm too excited, too busy at work and too thick to do it myself!
Are we safe yet??
Are we safe yet??