O/T Politically will it be 1992 all over again?

[Harty]

There was point in the 1992 election campaign that most political commentators were saying Major could do nothing to win, then Kinnock had that rally at Sheffield and the Sun election day front cover and it all turned on its head.

The Tories under Cameron seemed to be home and hosed not so long ago but now I'm not so sure, I'm 45 so can recall that it wasn't all sweetness and light under Mrs T, will the electorate go down the route of better the devil you know?

 

[itszamora]

It's not impossible. I'm 23 so have basically grown up under New Labour and whilst I don't think they've done a brilliant job by any means especially in the later years, the thought of David Cameron being Prime Minister terrifies me.

 

[strings]

I'm not yet convinced that the we are into 1992 territory yet. The Sun coming out so early in favour of Cameroon may have a positive effect for the tories.

What may yet have an effect is viral campaigns such as www.mydavidcameron.com, which we haven't really seen influence the outcome of an election before, but may well do so this time. I think the tories will get in, but only just.

 

[ROSM]

Historically Labour have always done better in Opinion Polls than real polls at general election time. In 1992 this was certainly the case and analysis after the event indicates it was the 25 to 45 female voters who felt that publically they should support Labour for the wider community benefits but when push came to shove, they voted on self interest basis at the polling station.

At the last two general elections the Tories have performed better on the day than polls indicated.

I would suggest that the Tories are probably on course for larger than the 30 seat majority currently predicted unless the following long shots occur:

- Gordon Brown has a storming performance at the Hutton show trial
- Alistair Darling is unneutered and allowed to run the economy (he actually does have a clue what is happening and what needs to happen)
- Ken Clark suddenly gets his voice back and starts disussing Europe
- George Osborne's sums are questioned in the level they should be (Independent analysis by the Institute of Fiscal studies identifies that labour's budget does actually add up albeit increasing debt whilst the Tories proposals will mean a further 12% to 17% reduction in education, defence and home security)
- People suss out David Cameron

Labour's best bet is a long campaign and some positive news on the economy around May.

In reality though and with the apathy of voters following the MP expenses items I cant see how Labour will be the biggest party come the summer

Oh and the manner of the Sun coming out for Cameron and at the same time mounting their attack on Brown over the letters to War bereaved have not had the positive Conservative bounce that either party expected.

 

[User removed 4]

It's not impossible. I'm 23 so have basically grown up under New Labour and whilst I don't think they've done a brilliant job by any means especially in the later years, the thought of David Cameron being Prime Minister terrifies me.

Why exactly ? what areas of competence do you feel he falls short in for him to 'terrify' you as opposed to gordon brown ?

 

[BLOCK F]

It's not impossible. I'm 23 so have basically grown up under New Labour and whilst I don't think they've done a brilliant job by any means especially in the later years, the thought of David Cameron being Prime Minister terrifies me.

You're easily frightened aren't you!
None of them overly impress me,but as a Conservative,I do believe that the country stands a better chance of getting out the shit than under any Labour Government because they always spend more than they can afford and it always ends in tears.Additionally,I am sick and tired of their oppressive,interfering we know best attitude.Get out of my face and let me get on with my life!!!Not alot to ask for is it?

 

[Mellotron]

it wasn't all sweetness and light under Mrs T

Has to be an early contender for Understatement of the Year award 2010.

 

[User removed 4]

Has to be an early contender for Understatement of the Year award 2010.

What do you particularly remember not being'sweetness and light' under thatcher?

 

[Mendoza]

1992 is when football was invented and records began

 

[Mellotron]

What do you particularly remember not being'sweetness and light' under thatcher?

OK. We'll just leave it there shall we?

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

I can see it being a hung Parliament, but I can't see it being a hung Parliament in which Labour are able to form a stable coalition. If the tories are short they might well be able to get over the line by doing a few deals with some of the NI parties. Then 6 months later they'll go back to the polls.

Brown has just confirmed that he will stay in power for another full parliament if reelected. The thought of five more years of Brown blundering around might prove too much for many, no just in terms of votes for opposition parties but in getting the labour vote out.

 

[User removed 4]

OK. We'll just leave it there shall we?

ohh,why's that ?

 

[Mellotron]

ohh,why's that ?

Because I haven't got five months spare.

Come on mate, don't be ridiculous, we both know a large number of people were not happy under Thatcher. Arguing otherwise is like arguing black is white, it's well documented, let's leave it there.

 

[xenophon]

It doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always gets in

Why bother?

 

[User removed 4]

Because I haven't got five months spare.

Come on mate, don't be ridiculous, we both know a large number of people were not happy under Thatcher. Arguing otherwise is like arguing black is white, it's well documented, let's leave it there.

I doubt you 'remember' much to be honest, it just amuses me the way some people have this automatic default setting when it comes to thatcher.

 

[Mellotron]

I doubt you 'remember' much to be honest, it just amuses me the way some people have this automatic default setting when it comes to thatcher.

I don't "remember" any of it, I wasn't born.

So...as I'm guessing you WERE around at the time, everyone was happy, were they?

 

[vulture]

with brown as pm labour has no chance.

 

[Tooting Gull]

I doubt you 'remember' much to be honest, it just amuses me the way some people have this automatic default setting when it comes to thatcher.

It's called 'a good memory'.

 

[User removed 4]

I don't "remember" any of it, I wasn't born.

Then perhaps you shouldn't post such authoritive statements about it being an early contender for 'understatement of the year 2010'.

 

[strings]

Based on opinion polls at end of January 2010:

Yougov - Hung Parliament
Labour - 31% - 271 seats
Conservative - 38% - 301 seats
Lib Dem - 19% - 48 seats
Other 12% - 30 seats

Ipsos Mori - Hung Parliament (but only just)
Labour - 32% - 271 seats
Conservative - 40% - 318 seats
Lib Dem - 19% - 31 seats
Other 12% - 30 seats