26th and 27th not sure but isnt that the dates care home deaths were added in one hit
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Number of Deaths
- Thread starter Tim Over Whelmed
- Start date
26th and 27th not sure but isnt that the dates care home deaths were added in one hit
It could spike again though and reach the same peak if there are big regions or big cities or even big parts of certain cities that for whatever reason lagging behind in the number of infected people. It looks promising but I would have to agree with veggie boy that its a bit too early to yell hello (... do you have that expression?). As long as there is no massive antibody testing there's also a lot of uncertainty and numbers could bounce back up.
Jimmy Grimble
Well-known member
[emoji106]
We have passed the peak of this wave, that's basically a fact. There's a good chance there will be another wave after the lockdown ends, and that could have a peak that eclipses this one, but that's not being disputed, and won't change the peak of this wave.
I don't think we do.
Yes they could, so it's not a time for mass celebration. Veggie was disputing that the peak of this wave had passed though, presumably as he was looking at different (and incorrect) data.
vegster
Sanity Clause
- May 5, 2008
- 28,186
Post #493. We are still comparably, one of the worst performing Western nations.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
But every medical professional along with many posts on here, has told you that we will not know the true mortality figures until many months after the event and after a lot of analysis. You are looking at the raw data and extrapolating some kind of 'result' in your mind. It is incorrect due to the different way different countries record deaths and also due to some countries being way less transparent than our own.
Are you determined to find a bad result for the UK?
BN41Albion
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2017
- 6,675
I don't know how many times someone has to make the same/similar points before it finally clicks with him/her!
It's impossible to compare at the moment for the reasons you mentioned, and it will be for a long time, if ever (truly).
vegster
Sanity Clause
- May 5, 2008
- 28,186
Strange how many people here saying that we are over the peak of death/infection but freely admit the current numbers are wrong and are probably only going to go UP after revision and readjustment? Or, they say it is impossible to extrapolate the right conclusions from the raw data ? So, come on guys, make your minds up ….. To me.if this is " Over the Peak " It really does not feel like it.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
There is honestly no point answering you any longer. [MENTION=4019]Triggaaar[/MENTION] and others have been very patient and replied with good clear reasons but for some reason you are unable or unwilling to comprehend. You have a trammelled mind.
vegster
Sanity Clause
- May 5, 2008
- 28,186
Ah, the old "Patriotic " defence ? Am I to be excluded from the herd because I express a differing view and question the mutual assumptions and conclusions of the herd ? Have I become un-British for daring to question ? Get over yourself.
Butch Willykins
Well-known member
You need to look at the date the death occurred. You are looking at the date the death is announced in those graphs. There is a massive difference.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
What on earth? You would believe China more than the UK? And why become insulting? Speaking in an uncouth manner betrays your lack of any real argument, you are here simply to troll as you ask questions and then when presented with the evidence simply continue on the same track. You remind me very much of another poster here.
Anyway, I am done with this.
vegster
Sanity Clause
- May 5, 2008
- 28,186
Wow ! played your joker now then ? I never mentioned China, and I'm struggling to see how " get over yourself " is insulting, uncouth and trolling ? Probably best that you are done with this and off to a safe place for a while. Tara.
Your ‘different view’ is a misinterpretation of the facts though. Death numbers are falling steadily if using date of death (as recorded on the certificate and registered), which is the most reliable dataset. All the scientists agree. Trying to compare rates between countries is pretty futile for now as others have explained - as well as inconsistency over what actual deaths are included and when (in care homes, ‘with’ or ‘of’ CV19 etc), other variables such as population density need to be considered to get a meaningful comparison. We won’t know for months, possibly years.
The Johns Hopkins raw data shows that Germany appears to be well over a peak, whereas we are on a peak. I say 'a' peak and will do so till I see no eveidence of the start of a second peak.
BN41Albion
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2017
- 6,675
The most relevant graph is the date of death graph, which really clearly shows that we are over the peak and declining quite steeply now. There's no disputing that graph.
The new cases graphs are completely skewed because testing has been increasing tenfold.
Comparitive graphs across nations are also completely skewed because countries have been counting in different ways and are at different stages.
Is it really, really that hard to grasp? We. Are. Over. The. Peak. (For now anyway, we'll see about a second wave, but that also goes for every nation.)
Looking for global trends on the Hopkins new cases summary figure, if you exclude France and Spain you get a clear picture that the rate of new cases is not plummetting, just hovering slightly downward. France and Spain have done exactly what we don't want, which is change the rubric by which they count numbers, probably more than once. The weird shapes to their paths is a clue, but the proof comes from the examples of negative numbers from both nations, meaning either that people who had been diagnosed with Cova were actually going back in time and blowing the virus out of their bottoms, or those doing the counting decided for no apparent reason to subtract lage numbers from their tally. I'm referring to the mauve and brahn lines that have recently gone below the zero line.
The three nations with the most obvious lack of any sustained progress in the improvement department are Brazil (a late entrant to the pandemic) America where there appears to be a gun-totin' suicide cult on the streets (plus lots of poor people with no health insurance) and....yes, dear old Blighty.
The three nations with the most obvious lack of any sustained progress in the improvement department are Brazil (a late entrant to the pandemic) America where there appears to be a gun-totin' suicide cult on the streets (plus lots of poor people with no health insurance) and....yes, dear old Blighty.
When looking at whether or not we're past our peak it doesn't make any difference whether or we're one of the worst performing nations. Do you understand that? We could have 10 times as many deaths as the US, but if the deaths were falling, we'd be past our peak.
The graphs you're looking at (here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/) are not distinguishing between deaths that were once only reported if they occurred in hospital, and are now being reported wherever they occur. The number of cases is also extremely misleading, since we were doing 10,000 tests a day, and now we're doing 10 times as many. You have to compare like with like. This is what you need to look at:
View attachment 123003This graph is useful because it looks at one specific thing, which is the number of deaths due to Covid 19 in hospital, each day. How can you argue that the number of deaths aren't falling?
Peak of infections or peak of deaths ? Deaths is the only stable and certain measure surely ? No. of cases of infection is bound to be higher as the volume of testing is increasing exponentially (it's gone up x10 in April)......we've almost certainly had this number of infection cases for some time, we just haven't been confirming them. We don't know if that rate is increasing or not, but the falling number of deaths and hospitalisations would indicate it's falling too.