Number of Deaths

[WATFORD zero]

On Tuesday the ONS will release the next week's detailed data on actual date of deaths from 18th April to the 24th April.

I started calculating actual deaths on 21st April, from data collected 17th March to 12th April. On 21st April - 23rd April, using that data, I calculated

21st April Government announced 18,100, Calculated > 27,089
22nd April Government announced 18,738, Calculated > 29,743
23rd April Government announced 19,506, Calculated > 30,961

Obviously the Government is not going to have the accurate figure on the actual day of death, hence my calculation. As of Tuesday, for the first time, I will exactly how accurate my calculations have been.

I have changed it slightly since, as I only started collecting the data from 17th March, the first two weeks data was only for England, and I estimated the base accuracy at 64% from the limited data. However the data for the last two weeks has been detailed by country and the accuracy has been different per nation.

To give an idea of the effect of the changes, I would have now predicted the April 21st figure as >27,519.

The Government have also changed the basis of their reporting to deaths all settings in the last couple of days, so I will use this figure going forward.

For yesterday,
1st May Government announced - 27,510 (UK all settings), Calculated > 36,871

 

[vegster]

Any explanation of our current situation given that it was announced a couple of days ago that we are " Over The Peak " ? looking at Worldometers the only countries reporting more cases than us daily are Russia and the US ? We seem to be in second spot behind the US for daily fatalities too. So, how do we define " Over " the peak ?

 

[Bodian]

Any explanation of our current situation given that it was announced a couple of days ago that we are " Over The Peak " ? looking at Worldometers the only countries reporting more cases than us daily are Russia and the US ? We seem to be in second spot behind the US for daily fatalities too. So, how do we define " Over " the peak ?

• Fewer deaths day by day.

• Smaller percentage of those being tested being positive.

• Reducing number if hospital admissions and people in hospital.

All happening.

 

[vegster]

• Fewer deaths day by day.

• Smaller percentage of those being tested being positive.

• Reducing number if hospital admissions and people in hospital.

All happening.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Difficult to tell from this though.

 

[Weststander]

Any explanation of our current situation given that it was announced a couple of days ago that we are " Over The Peak " ? looking at Worldometers the only countries reporting more cases than us daily are Russia and the US ? We seem to be in second spot behind the US for daily fatalities too. So, how do we define " Over " the peak ?

Very hard to compare between nations on deaths eg Spain does not include colossal numbers of care home deaths according to the Guardian and others, whilst Italy’s failed to record huge numbers of covid deaths according to academics.

Excess total deaths can be the only reliable barometer, as pointed out by various epidemiologists across the globe. Then used per 1m population.

Another poster steered me to these free resources:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Regarding peak by date of death, the UK’s was early in April.

 

[vegster]

Very hard to compare between nations on deaths eg Spain does not include colossal numbers of care home deaths according to the Guardian and others, whilst Italy’s failed to record huge numbers of covid deaths according to academics.

Excess total deaths can be the only reliable barometer, as pointed out by various epidemiologists across the globe. Then used per 1m population.

Another poster steered me to these free resources:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Regarding peak by date of death, the UK’s was early in April.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

 

[Weststander]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

A genuine question, doesn’t that stat naturally go up as we test many times more?

 

[BN41Albion]

A genuine question, doesn’t that stat naturally go up as we test many times more?

Yes, and that's the problem with these stats and graphs. They're completely flawed, really, as testing has continued to grow. And obviously hundreds of thousands of people will have had it and not been tested. It's easy to take a glance and think lockdown isn't working, but there are a lot of factors to consider.

 

[Weststander]

Yes, and that's the problem with these stats and graphs. They're completely flawed, really, as testing has continued to grow. And obviously hundreds of thousands of people will have had it and not been tested. It's easy to take a glance and think lockdown isn't working, but there are a lot of factors to consider.

Excess total deaths, where academics across the globe use an agreed formula, is the only comparable measure. But it will take ages for the true stats to ‘come out in the wash’.

No doubt the UK’s figures will be even worse, as they will be everywhere. Countries that forever exclude non-hospital deaths will inherently see a much larger hike, as will nations where in their chaotic first weeks of the pandemic, they buried bodies without knowing the cause of death or whether the deceased tested positive.

 

[vegster]

A genuine question, doesn’t that stat naturally go up as we test many times more?

Yes, but aren't all countries testing more ? I just genuinely can't see much, if any of an improvement, our new cases number is in the highest 3 in the world, our daily fatalities ( God rest them, these are so much more than just a number) are the second biggest official fatalities. I just don't see how we are past the peak.

 

[Weststander]

Yes, but aren't all countries testing more ? I just genuinely can't see much, if any of an improvement, our new cases number is in the highest 3 in the world, our daily fatalities ( God rest them, these are so much more than just a number) are the second biggest official fatalities. I just don't see how we are past the peak.

After you asked, I had a close look at the curves for Italy, Spain and France, all ahead of ‘the game’ over us. They show, sadly, that the experts were correct when they predicted a steep upwards scarp (my term) slope on a covid wave arriving, followed by a painfully slow dip slope as cases and deaths per million reduce.

Digressing, excess total deaths across these nations are:
Italy 90%
Spain 72%
Belgium 60%
Netherlands 52%
England & Wales 52%

Sweden 23%
Germany 3%

I remember articles on the TV news two months ago telling us Brits how brilliant Spain and Italy’s modern hospitals were compared to ours, with many fold the number of ICU beds, also ventilators. But in reality we then saw piles of coffins and police breaking into care homes. Anecdotes that back their far worse excess death numbers.

I like Worldometer as an easy reference tool, but true analysis of the pandemic’s numbers is far more complex and nuanced.

 

[BN41Albion]

Excess total deaths, where academics across the globe use an agreed formula, is the only comparable measure. But it will take ages for the true stats to ‘come out in the wash’.

No doubt the UK’s figures will be even worse, as they will be everywhere. Countries that forever exclude non-hospital deaths will inherently see a much larger hike, as will nations where in their chaotic first weeks of the pandemic, they buried bodies without knowing the cause of death or whether the deceased tested positive.

View attachment 123057

What is the situation with Germany? I really cant see its possible that their death rate is so incredibly low, compared to just about everywhere when comparing per person.
Yes they've had the right set up from very early on, but it doesn't seem possible. Are they counting in a completely different way to everywhere else?

 

[Weststander]

What is the situation with Germany? I really cant see its possible that their death rate is so incredibly low, compared to just about everywhere when comparing per person.
Yes they've had the right set up from very early on, but it doesn't seem possible. Are they counting in a completely different way to everywhere else?

I’ve not heard anything valid to dispute their data.

Just the same as everyone else that they tested like crazy from early on, helped by a huge number of university and Roche laboratories that luckily could be switched to covid19 testing immediately. So they were able to identify and keep the apparently first wave of infected people (most young apparently, which helped mortality), away from vulnerable groups. Their lockdown came at a similar time to us, and varies between states, so that wasn’t the telling factor.

 

[Triggaaar]

Yes, but aren't all countries testing more ? I just genuinely can't see much, if any of an improvement, our new cases number is in the highest 3 in the world, our daily fatalities ( God rest them, these are so much more than just a number) are the second biggest official fatalities. I just don't see how we are past the peak.

Our daily fatalities are 621. A few weeks ago it was over 900. You can see that 600 is less than 900 right?

It makes no difference what other countries are reporting right now, it doesn't matter if we're reporting more than them. What matters is how many deaths we're getting now compared to how many we were getting before. We're getting fewer, therefore we're past the peak. It's that simple.

 

[BN41Albion]

I’ve not heard anything valid to dispute their data.

Just the same as everyone else that they tested like crazy from early on, helped by a huge number of university and Roche laboratories that luckily could be switched to covid19 testing immediately. So they were able to identify and keep the apparently first wave of infected people (most young apparently, which helped mortality), away from vulnerable groups. Their lockdown came at a similar time to us, and varies between states, so that wasn’t the telling factor.

Fair enough. Impressive how well they've managed it, so far at least.

 

[Weststander]

Our daily fatalities are 621. A few weeks ago it was over 900. You can see that 600 is less than 900 right?

It makes no difference what other countries are reporting right now, it doesn't matter if we're reporting more than them. What matters is how many deaths we're getting now compared to how many we were getting before. We're getting fewer, therefore we're past the peak. It's that simple.

Moreover, the >900 was hospital only deaths, the 621 is all settings.

 

[dazzer6666]

Our daily fatalities are 621. A few weeks ago it was over 900. You can see that 600 is less than 900 right?

It makes no difference what other countries are reporting right now, it doesn't matter if we're reporting more than them. What matters is how many deaths we're getting now compared to how many we were getting before. We're getting fewer, therefore we're past the peak. It's that simple.

This. As horrific as the ‘cumulative total’ is, it’s the trending that we need to be looking at.........

-deaths going down (by certified date of death) steadily
-no. in hospital going down quite significantly
-NHS capacity going up (and better than normal)
-test numbers going up (massively)

 

[vegster]

Our daily fatalities are 621. A few weeks ago it was over 900. You can see that 600 is less than 900 right?

It makes no difference what other countries are reporting right now, it doesn't matter if we're reporting more than them. What matters is how many deaths we're getting now compared to how many we were getting before. We're getting fewer, therefore we're past the peak. It's that simple.

Look at the rise and fall, very hard to declare that there is a definite trend of decline in numbers, lots of peaks and troughs. look at April 26th/ 27th, deaths back up again by some margin since then, it's NOT that simple.

 

[Weststander]

Look at the rise and fall, very hard to declare that there is a definite trend of decline in numbers, lots of peaks and troughs. look at April 26th/ 27th, deaths back up again by some margin since then, it's NOT that simple.

Do Worldometer have by date of death graphs?

 

[Triggaaar]

Look at the rise and fall, very hard to declare that there is a definite trend of decline in numbers, lots of peaks and troughs. look at April 26th/ 27th, deaths back up again by some margin since then, it's NOT that simple.

Yes it is. Look at this chart showing the date of the deaths:

Today's graph as no-one else has posted it. Not sure if it should go here or in the main thread?

View attachment 123003

The deaths have halved.

You might be looking at graphs which mix different figures, such as hospital deaths and overall deaths. Feel free to post a graph you're relying on, and I'll explain why it's not showing we haven't past the peak.