**NSC early Weather Warning - possible Snow on Friday**

[Papa Lazarou]

Friday is looking very 'interesting' for another snow event in Sussex. We are going to have a low pressure pushing south, and this will have a lot of cold air in train... We could see significant snow from this, as well as showers on Saturday.

This is the latest Met Office Fax chart for Friday lunchtime... the low pressure and occluded front are both close to the SE coast.. (note, they will update)

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2a.gif

We'd expect a period of snow throughout Sussex if this happens as forecast. If the front slows over us, the cold air (represented by the dashed 528dam line) may even undercut the front giving even more snow.


The GFS model shows this well this morning.

Precipitation

Temps

Synoptics

Metcheck show this well, for the Thursday night to Friday period... with the rain equivalent of nearly an inch! (that would equate to nearly a foot of snow).

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/7days.asp?zipcode=Worthing

One to keep an eye on, I think.

Papa

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

Don't push it Papa.

US says you got lucky once .........................

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Don't push it Papa.

US says you got lucky once .........................

I'm not say this will happen, but if it does, overnight into Friday would be a real mess.

Where could this go wrong?

1. The low may track further to the east - no precipitation over most us.
2. The forecasts have overestimated the cold air involved - we get rain.
3. The models have over-estimated the level of precipitation.

I personally think they have done a '3'. Northerly incursions are always tricky for us down here, and the downs tend to moderate the snow for a lot of us.

Just one to keep an eye on

 

[ben andrews' girlfriend]

For once, i hope it doesn't snow friday / saturday - i've been really looking forward to going home!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

For once, i hope it doesn't snow friday / saturday - i've been really looking forward to going home!

Can you get home on Thursday?

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

Just one to keep an eye on

You have secured your reputation as the NSC Weather Guru. Well played papa - you must have punched the snow-laden air.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

You have secured your reputation as the NSC Weather Guru. Well played papa - you must have punched the snow-laden air.

When I saw the snow falling overnight Sunday I was excited. But let's focus on the possible 'snow event' Thursday into Saturday now.

I prefer snow on a Friday, as I get a legitimate day to go 'up the downs' with the kids.

Papa

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

When I saw the snow falling overnight Sunday I was excited. But let's focus on the possible 'snow event' Thursday into Saturday now.

Quite right. Take each snowfall as it comes. The next snowfall is the most important.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Quite right. Take each snowfall as it comes. The next snowfall is the most important.

It is from a forecasting perspective, yes.

 

[Gritt23]

Good news Papa. Yesterday was superb, and now all the snow has got rather hard and icy round my way, I'm already looking for the next lot.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

This is the graphical interpretation of the GFS output.

Just a sample.

 

[Yoda]

Listen to the man.

Everything looks to be pointing that way, the Global Forecast System, The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and UK Meteorological Office models all roughly show the same thing.

 

[pasty]

I'm getting woried now. I'm scheduled to be flying out of Gatwick at 9am Sunday to go skiing. Oh the irony if I can't fly to a skiing holiday because of snow in this country.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Listen to the man.

Everything looks to be pointing that way, the Global Forecast System, The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and UK Meteorological Office models all roughly show the same thing.

Indeed. Very good model agreement on this one. The media haven't really mentioned the risk (until maybe today) as they've been focussing (rightly) on the current weather situation.

Papa

 

[countrygull]

Indeed. Very good model agreement on this one. The media haven't really mentioned the risk (until maybe today) as they've been focussing (rightly) on the current weather situation.

Papa

After your outstanding long range forecast, I shall never consult `the media` for my weather forecasts again

 

[Fourteenth Eye]

Could you please do a waether report for hereford!!!!

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

These threads are like making a quick trip up the mountain to Delphi.

Where do we slaughter the offering Papa?

 

[ben andrews' girlfriend]

Can you get home on Thursday?

No, got a mandatory study day on friday

 

[Napper]

BBC - Weather Centre - UK and World Weather also says the same

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Hmmm. So, Papa, I am supposed to be flying from Stansted on Friday lunchtime to Amsterdam. Is this going to happen? Will it be white and pretty in the Dam?