Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Kinky Gerbil]

Maybe just me but I get the feeling that the medical bods aren't as excited about the graph trend right now as they were a week or so back.

I concur.

I got the feeling they are realising some may have been wrong.

I thought there was a Shift change today towards blaming the public more for it but working as hoped.

 

[CheeseRolls]

I get that more tests being done each day but I am flabbergasted that the new infection rate hasn't dropped significantly after a month or so of lockdown.., I was hoping it'll drop down to under 2000 by now

Care homes and airports. The lockdown is as watertight as a colander.

 

[Is it PotG?]

I don't normally play the Bingo, but 'shoulder to the wheel, tirelessly, 24/7, together' is starting to grate.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

we have been in lockdown for five weeks now, but still recording 4,000+ cases a day. I was expecting this number to be coming down by now.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

we have been in lockdown for five weeks now, but still recording 4,000+ cases a day. I was expecting this number to be coming down by now.

Starting to think they have absolutely no idea of the correct numbers.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Of course they will start blaming us and we will start blaming each other THIS IS HOW POLITICS WORK FFS

Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Patel is pretty awful. I'm not sure why we needed a Home Secretary there. The stuff about policing didn't gain any real traction and the slogans are tired and tiresome. Trying not to be party political but there must be some serious questions about the calibre of the current Cabinet; she couldn't even read the script effectively, yet alone answer all the questions.

 

[BN41Albion]

we have been in lockdown for five weeks now, but still recording 4,000+ cases a day. I was expecting this number to be coming down by now.

But they're testing a lot more now aren't they?

 

[Triggaaar]

Trying not to be party political but there must be some serious questions about the calibre of the current Cabinet; she couldn't even read the script effectively, yet alone answer all the questions.

I've thought most of them have done fine, but she is a complete bitch.

 

[East Staffs Gull]

But they're testing a lot more now aren't they?

They are, including lots of asymptomatic people, so we’re not seeing a reduction in positive cases. What gets me is that the daily number of deaths is still so high despite being five weeks into the lockdown. Large numbers of people have therefore been infected since the lockdown began.

 

[Albion Dan]

They are, including lots of asymptomatic people, so we’re not seeing a reduction in positive cases. What gets me is that the daily number of deaths is still so high despite being five weeks into the lockdown. Large numbers of people have therefore been infected since the lockdown began.

Or lots of people have the disease across the country and many of those dying are because of other underlying things whilst having Covid. If thats the case then deaths are unlikely to drop for a long time because of the current method of attribution.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Reports are saying that its now possible that Covid has been in Vegas since Jan 6th.


https://www.apmreports.org/story/2020/04/23/covid-infected-attendee-ces-tech-conference


If true, how many more thousands have been infected?

 

[oldboyroy]

Or lots of people have the disease across the country and many of those dying are because of other underlying things whilst having Covid. If thats the case then deaths are unlikely to drop for a long time because of the current method of attribution.

Or the social distancing measures are not enough, the 2 metre rule isn't enough and the virus in asymptomatic people is spreading perhaps 4 metres?

 

[Weststander]

They are, including lots of asymptomatic people, so we’re not seeing a reduction in positive cases. What gets me is that the daily number of deaths is still so high despite being five weeks into the lockdown. Large numbers of people have therefore been infected since the lockdown began.

Good point.

Imho partly the effect of a stubborn minority ignoring lockdown / social distancing. That includes extended families meeting up.

That would only have been beaten, by a police/military enforced lockdown as seen in Italy and Spain, literally confined to homes unless holding a letter that out for groceries or med’s. I don’t think Brits would’ve agreed with that.

 

[Weststander]

I concur.

I got the feeling they are realising some may have been wrong.

I thought there was a Shift change today towards blaming the public more for it but working as hoped.

I don’t think they criticise parts of the public enough. Always very positive about those complying, never a stern word about those who are now increasing their journeys, as borne out by the graph and anecdotally we all know there are far more people out and about than a fortnight ago.

 

[e77]

Reports are saying that its now possible that Covid has been in Vegas since Jan 6th.


https://www.apmreports.org/story/2020/04/23/covid-infected-attendee-ces-tech-conference


If true, how many more thousands have been infected?

I had a sore throat and high temperature followed by a dodgy stomach without a runny nose or headaches at what must have been the end of January (certainly before we were asked to hand wash all the time). I said at the time it felt different to a normal cold or bug but it passed after a few days so didn't think much of it. I was working in Central London at the time.

 

[Eeyore]

we have been in lockdown for five weeks now, but still recording 4,000+ cases a day. I was expecting this number to be coming down by now.

Starting to think they have absolutely no idea of the correct numbers.

I think the problem is the way it is reported. Each day's figures is a collection of data from many other days.

The ONS statistics suggest a drop in numbers when taken from the actual days of origins.

 

[RossyG]

Looking at the right hand graph, things seem to be heading in the right direction in Sweden.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Starting to think they have absolutely no idea of the correct numbers.

After talking to a 111 Doctor this morning about my own symptoms, they don't.

What I learned on the call:

1) Because everyone in my house had had similar symptoms very quickly after each other it was "likely" all four of us had it. However, since none of us need hospital, the other three have recovered and I'm a month in and we're not key workers we won't get tested. It is, in any case, too late because
2) It's likely, according to her, that you'll only be infectious and show up on the current test in the first couple of weeks
3) Because I was getting worse nearly a month later it's probable I've got a chest infection. I'll be checked tomorrow. However, what will go on my medical record if that's what they find is "bacterial chest infection" and NOT CV19.
4) They still don't know enough about the disease to know if this makes us all immune. Therefore, not only is the current test quite restricted but an antibody test will be as well.
5) My own interpretation of the above is that the fairly low test to positive result ratio in hospital could simply be because people have presented "too late" with chest infections that are a follow on or side effect (or, indeed, just a chest infection or other cold/flu).

The statistics are basically meaningless, which does mean I have a little more sympathy for Boris et al. It also means (FAO [MENTION=1200]Harry Wilson's tackle[/MENTION] ) that if I have understood her correctly, the mortality rate is also more or less meaningless. The mortality TREND is not, so carry on the good work but our consistent number of cases to extract the deaths from is still just those who present to ITU with early enough CV19 issues, plus key workers who may have very mild symptoms but were caught at the right time by accident.

I would put the caveat that all this is based on one half hour long phone call, though with an actual qualified GP, and that I have been woefully wrong before as everyone knows.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

After talking to a 111 Doctor this morning about my own symptoms, they don't.

What I learned on the call:

1) Because everyone in my house had had similar symptoms very quickly after each other it was "likely" all four of us had it. However, since none of us need hospital, the other three have recovered and I'm a month in and we're not key workers we won't get tested. It is, in any case, too late because
2) It's likely, according to her, that you'll only be infectious and show up on the current test in the first couple of weeks
3) Because I was getting worse nearly a month later it's probable I've got a chest infection. I'll be checked tomorrow. However, what will go on my medical record if that's what they find is "bacterial chest infection" and NOT CV19.
4) They still don't know enough about the disease to know if this makes us all immune. Therefore, not only is the current test quite restricted but an antibody test will be as well.
5) My own interpretation of the above is that the fairly low test to positive result ratio in hospital could simply be because people have presented "too late" with chest infections that are a follow on or side effect (or, indeed, just a chest infection or other cold/flu).

The statistics are basically meaningless, which does mean I have a little more sympathy for Boris et al. It also means (FAO [MENTION=1200]Harry Wilson's tackle[/MENTION] ) that if I have understood her correctly, the mortality rate is also more or less meaningless. The mortality TREND is not, so carry on the good work but our consistent number of cases to extract the deaths from is still just those who present to ITU with early enough CV19 issues, plus key workers who may have very mild symptoms but were caught at the right time by accident.

I would put the caveat that all this is based on one half hour long phone call, though with an actual qualified GP, and that I have been woefully wrong before as everyone knows.

Yep. That's the long and short of it. I do think that my derived statistic is useful for trend assessment, though. Since it is a dimensionless variable it precludes meaningless comparisons between the declared absolute numbers between nations.

So, one of the reasons we haven't gone balls-deep with 'testing' is because there is no test (than can be used to see if you might have had it or whether you are now immune).

The best we can hope for (given the unliklihood of there being a vaccine any time soon or (if there are multiple strain variants as there is with the common cold) indeed ever) is that it just dies down to homeopathic levels.