Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Yoda]

Cases up 32% weekly and hospitalisations up 23% which is particularly concerning given there is usually a few weeks lag between cases and those unfortunate people being poorly enough to have to go to hospital.

Total number of patients in hospital, still falling from 890 to 871. Number of patients in ICU also down 5 from 125 to 120.

Actually, feel that deserves to be in the Good news thread too.

 

[loz]

Cases up 32% weekly and hospitalisations up 23% which is particularly concerning given there is usually a few weeks lag between cases and those unfortunate people being poorly enough to have to go to hospital.

Zero deaths and looking at the numbers there are 870 poor souls in hospital, you should not just quote % to scare people. There is over 1000 hospitals in the UK with about 144,000 beds. Let’s try and be sensible about quoting % as a concern. But are you concerned or just being a storm crow ?

 

[e77]

I disagree with this.

The models have been wrong throughout the pandemic. At every stage of the roadmap there's been "experts" in the media saying we should delay opening, so far they've all been wrong. The same experts said opening schools would cause a spike in infections. These people don't seem to get pulled up when they're wrong but are happy to give the big I told you so when there has been a spike like at Christmas.

Ultimately the government ignored the experts and delayed locking down three times and caused several thousand unnecessary deaths and were way too slow closing the borders.

Not really sure that can be disputed.

 

[Driver8]

Total number of patients in hospital, still falling from 890 to 871. Number of patients in ICU also down 5 from 125 to 120.

Actually, feel that deserves to be in the Good news thread too.

Just 7 people in hospital with COVID in Wales.

 

[e77]

Even when everyone is jabbed it wont keep people out of hospital due to covid, and those that are at risk are in the large majority being protected from being sent into hospital.

They have had a year to come up with a plan to deal with this problem.

Young people are not getting hospitalised and those who are over 50 and have not have a jab, I couldn't care less about.

Problem is they didn't come up with a recovery plan and here we are.

In theory at least absolutely everything returns to normal on June 21st. That simply isn't going to happen, although quite possibly it will be down to minor inconveniences. Even if it is just wearing face covers on public transport there will still be some rules in place. I am not saying this because I want it to happen but because it will almost certainly be the case.

 

[crodonilson]

Zero deaths and looking at the numbers there are 870 poor souls in hospital, you should not just quote % to scare people. There is over 1000 hospitals in the UK with about 144,000 beds. Let’s try and be sensible about quoting % as a concern. But are you concerned or just being a storm crow ?

The zero deaths is fantastic news, the vaccine has done an excellent job alongside the continued restrictions to bring deaths down so low, albeit with a caveat that this is a bank holiday weekend we're coming out of and I'm sure there will be more deaths to announce in the coming days.

The percentages are important because the individual numbers aren't important now but we know how quickly things can spiral, so several weeks of 30+% increase in cases and that turns to 30% increase week on week in hospitalisations and very soon we have a problem and we have to apply the brakes with more restrictions again.

 

[crodonilson]

#Why are you so bothered? You're going to remain in hiding for months anyway, so you won't be affected. Do you realise that the single death recorded yesterday was from last February? When they said "data not dates", it was not with the proviso that a single case is too many.

FYI I am not locking myself away and have been to several excellent covid secure venues in recent weeks, I have also booked a cruise today with Rustie Lee for September.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Cases up 32% weekly and hospitalisations up 23% which is particularly concerning given there is usually a few weeks lag between cases and those unfortunate people being poorly enough to have to go to hospital.

That's simply not true.

The latest available data for hospitalisations is May 27th which shows there were 870 people in hospital with Covid, 7 days before that the figure was 909. So the number in hospital is continuing to fall. Yes the number of people going into hospital has risen week on week, but the number of people in hospital is still falling which means that there are more people recovering and going home than there are coming into hospital (given deaths are not rising). Even more importantly the number of people on ventilators isn't rising and has actually shown a slight decrease over the last week of figures available.

This backs up what was reported last week that the people going into hospital are younger and less ill than at the peak when they would have probably stayed at home as there were no beds for them.

I know you like to live in some sort of fear bubble but sometimes you'd be way better off looking at the bigger picture and trying to find some positives.

 

[loz]

The zero deaths is fantastic news, the vaccine has done an excellent job alongside the continued restrictions to bring deaths down so low, albeit with a caveat that this is a bank holiday weekend we're coming out of and I'm sure there will be more deaths to announce in the coming days.

The percentages are important because the individual numbers aren't important now but we know how quickly things can spiral, so several weeks of 30+% increase in cases and that turns to 30% increase week on week in hospitalisations and very soon we have a problem and we have to apply the brakes with more restrictions again.

Depends what the start number is surly, 30% of 1000 is a concern 30% of 5 is not.

I am glad your are getting out and about again.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Ultimately the government ignored the experts and delayed locking down three times and caused several thousand unnecessary deaths and were way too slow closing the borders.

Not really sure that can be disputed.

The first one certainly can. They locked down as soon as SAGE told them to.

 

[Yoda]

The percentages are important because the individual numbers aren't important now but we know how quickly things can spiral, so several weeks of 30+% increase in cases and that turns to 30% increase week on week in hospitalisations and very soon we have a problem and we have to apply the brakes with more restrictions again.

You got that round the wrong way, with lower numbers it's less important to look at percentages as a small increase in numbers can be a large increase in percentages.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Ultimately the government ignored the experts and delayed locking down three times and caused several thousand unnecessary deaths and were way too slow closing the borders.

Not really sure that can be disputed.

Yes that's true as a statement but you're disregarding any sort of context. The opinion of the epidemiologists has always been to lockdown as soon as possible and keep everything closed. If they'd had their way we would've been in lockdown since March 2020. If they say the same thing over and over again sooner or later they'll be right.

HMG has to consider more than just covid deaths, there's a bigger picture that some of the advisors seem blind to.

 

[darkwolf666]

Everyone over 18 wont get jabbed

Pedant - and you know what I meant!

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

That's simply not true.

The latest available data for hospitalisations is May 27th which shows there were 870 people in hospital with Covid, 7 days before that the figure was 909. So the number in hospital is continuing to fall. Yes the number of people going into hospital has risen week on week, but the number of people in hospital is still falling which means that there are more people recovering and going home than there are coming into hospital (given deaths are not rising). Even more importantly the number of people on ventilators isn't rising and has actually shown a slight decrease over the last week of figures available.

This backs up what was reported last week that the people going into hospital are younger and less ill than at the peak when they would have probably stayed at home as there were no beds for them.

I know you like to live in some sort of fear bubble but sometimes you'd be way better off looking at the bigger picture and trying to find some positives.

Can’t wait for the media meltdown tomorrow when the cases are high due to 3 day weekend

 

[darkwolf666]

Jesus. I wasn’t aware of this.

This also makes interesting, balanced reading...

https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/how-is-elective-care-coping-with-the-continuing-impact-of-covid-19

 

[e77]

The first one certainly can. They locked down as soon as SAGE told them to.

Coronavirus: SAGE urged government to lockdown a week earlier, UK's chief scientific adviser says

 

[e77]

Yes that's true as a statement but you're disregarding any sort of context. The opinion of the epidemiologists has always been to lockdown as soon as possible and keep everything closed. If they'd had their way we would've been in lockdown since March 2020. If they say the same thing over and over again sooner or later they'll be right.

HMG has to consider more than just covid deaths, there's a bigger picture that some of the advisors seem blind to.

To be fair to the scientists you would expect to fight the corner from their perspective and it is up to elected officials to make final decisions.

Three times we had to go into lockdown and 150,000 people have died from Covid. I think that probably supports the theory those who exercised caution were on the right side of the argument, although as I have said the vaccine roll out changes everything now.

 

[Weststander]

Like everyone else here, I’m just a layman when it comes to epidemiology.

A question - what makes the UK’s situation so worrying today in respect of the Indian Variant? It’s not just the politicised grim reapers from ‘Independent’ Sage, respected other scientists such as Adam Finn seem concerned.

Shirley the huge difference this time around is that 10m’s have been vaccinated, many double vaccinated and the numbers grow daily.

 

[beorhthelm]

Coronavirus: SAGE urged government to lockdown a week earlier, UK's chief scientific adviser says

thats a distortion of the advise they were giving at the time. SAGE changed from "we need to do some measures" to "oh shit, we need to do more measures" about a week before the announced lockdown.

from SAGE minutes of 13th March.

2. The science suggests that household isolation and social distancing of the elderly and
vulnerable should be implemented soon, provided they can be done well and equitably.
Individuals who may want to distance themselves should be advised how to do so.
3. SAGE is considering further social distancing interventions – that may best be applied
intermittently, nationally or regionally, and potentially more than once – to reduce
demand below NHS capacity to respond. The modelling sub-group is discussing
potential interventions on Monday 16th, for review by SAGE on Tuesday 17th.

hardly the urgency claimed.

oh and on 18th March...

2. SAGE advises that available evidence now supports implementing school closures on a
national level as soon as practicable to prevent NHS intensive care capacity being
exceeded.
3. SAGE advises that the measures already announced should have a significant effect,
provided compliance rates are good and in line with the assumptions. Additional
measures will be needed if compliance rates are low.
[...]
7. Transport measures such as restricting public transport, taxis and private hire facilities
would have minimal impact on reducing transmission in London.

i quite like that last one from a historical point of view, knowing what we know. there's another one in a following meeting that states borders dont need closing because the effect is negligible.

 

[Fungus]

Like everyone else here, I’m just a layman when it comes to epidemiology.

A question - what makes the UK’s situation so worrying today in respect of the Indian Variant? It’s not just the politicised grim reapers from ‘Independent’ Sage, respected other scientists such as Adam Finn seem concerned.

Shirley the huge difference this time around is that 10m’s have been vaccinated, many double vaccinated and the numbers grow daily.

View attachment 137268

I'm as puzzled as you. We're in a much better position now, surely?