Unless it’s a care home of course.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
Unless it’s a care home of course.
Sussexscots
3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3 3, 3, 3, 3 ,3 ,3 3 coach chuggers
Yet another example of the very real harms that lockdowns cause.
It is absolutely imperative that the vaccines are delivered without delay so that this destructive cycle ends.
Thanks for the explanation.
Lockdown has killed thousands though and will continue to kill. Given how badly it’s damaged our GDP, it will be many tens of thousands.
Funny how you were quick to scrutinise what the radio presenter said - that 500,000 would die - yet have failed to see that we are only in lockdown because of a dodgy piece of modelling that suggested 500,000 would die from Covid.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,417
Based on round numbers of 100,000 people died of coronavirus and average age 82 and average life expectancy of an 82 year old being 10 years, then the number of years lost through early death would be 100,000 x 10 = 1 million years. Average of one-sixtysixth of a year per person, or 6 days - so life expectancy in the UK caused by coronavirus deaths would be reduced by 6 days over the past year. (This is the actual figure based on measures actually takem not a hypothetical measure based on what would have happened if ...) It doesn't take into account lives cut short in future because of long term coronavirus effects in survivors, but they will surely be very much less than the immediate effects of deaths.
Of course, that assumes that the people who die are in an average state of health. This is almost certainly not true - the healthier 82 year olds (with higher life expectancy) have a better chance of surviving coronavirus than the less healthy 82 year olds (with lower life expectancy). So average life expectancy may have reduced by say 2 or 3 days.
Of course, that assumes that the people who die are in an average state of health. This is almost certainly not true - the healthier 82 year olds (with higher life expectancy) have a better chance of surviving coronavirus than the less healthy 82 year olds (with lower life expectancy). So average life expectancy may have reduced by say 2 or 3 days.
crodonilson
He/Him
The mood within government appears to have shifted substantially in the last week or so towards a much longer lockdown and with it a determination that whilst many measures will be with us for a long time and may need to be eased and reimposed depending on infection rates, this has to be the last full national lockdown. I have been in favour of this approach and think the government should have levelled with the public when we were put into lockdown at the beginning of January this lockdown will be the longest one yet and it will be the late Spring/early Summer until we emerge from it. I do worry offering people hope that lockdown would be reviewed in mid Feb and substantial normality by Easter as the lockdown is unwound only adds anguish to people and their mental health when they now begin to realise just how long this lockdown will last.
I'm not in favour of the approach Matt Hancock was suggesting of no end of lockdown all the time there are new variants
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,417
Don't you think we need to wait until the rest of the world has been vaccinated? And perhaps through the winter to check the results of the vaccine will last? And maybe another winter to make sure? Tell people now that we won't be out of lockdown till 2023 at the earliest. That should have the desired effect of killing all their hope.
crodonilson
He/Him
We will be out of lockdown this year and in all likelihood some time over the late Spring/early Summer but I think the government should be truthful about that. When BJ announced lockdown on 4 January he said this one would be different because whilst we were in lockdown we would also be vaccinating millions of people which was the way out of the pandemic and offering a sense that with a review in mid Feb and a target to vaccinate all of the first 13m vulnerable people by then that from that date we can begin to unlock, this was never likely nor realistic and the private and now public pessimism within government over the last week seems to suggest going from mid Feb to Summer, quite a leap.
Pretty much ever since we were in the first lockdown the escape route was touted as getting a working vaccine and there was much positivity in late Autumn last year when the first vaccines showed efficacy way above most peoples realistic expectations. The government unrealisically heralded this as the magic bullet, and that once we rolled this out life would return to 2019 normal.
The key to all this is whether the vaccine stops spread as well as stops people becoming seriously ill with it. If it does that then we should be able to slowly unlock over the summer and winter 2021 whilst some restrictions will stay, will be much better than what we are in now, but if it does not stop the spread then I think we are in for a very difficult year and beyond.
The key to all of this
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,826
why should the government be truth about your preferred course of action? they are driven by case numbers, hospitalisations, vaccine delivery and many social and political consideration. if we have half at risk groups, teachers and other keyworkers vaccinated by end of March, there is good reason for schools to open after easter and other lockdown restrictions eased. we arent going to wait until summer and write off a generation's education, we'll not wait for zero spread before easing the restriction.
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dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,417
In the unlikely event that the vaccine doesn't stop the spread (can you name any vaccine that doesn't?), then do you see a future when grandparents will be banned, totally and finally, from ever giving their grandchildren a hug?
crodonilson
He/Him
Of course it won't be banned, but those grandparents who have not been vaccinated through either personal choice or circumstance should be very careful and we should all be mindful that we can't have free for all because whilst we might be unlikely to get ill ourselves we can still be superspreaders in a chain of transmission that might well end up with a vulnerable person dying.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,417
Have you any evidence for this? Obviously there have been no tests for whether this is true of this particular virus, so is there evidence from other viruses that immune people still spread the disease in significant amounts? I'm not aware of any.
I think the fears of spreading the virus even after we have all been vaccinated are not based on any scientific likelihood, it's just part of the government's policy of spreading fear and keeping the lid on hope.
Incidentally, I think the "old people need to be careful because they might die" issue is overblown. Not by you particularly, but in general. Old people will die whether they are careful or not. So will young people, for that matter. "Being careful" in the past has meant not going out in the snow and missing a grandchildren's visit as a result. It has never meant not seeing grandchildren at all. There is no doubt that in the past, people have died earlier than they needed to just because they gave a grandchild a hug; but that has never in the past been seen as a reason for banning hugging grandchildren. I don't think grandparents; lives will be enhanced, even if they are lengthened, by making that the norm.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,826
this is an area that is still unknown, the research is not done yet. some vaccinations are sterilising, they kill off the virus and prevent it being passed on. other are less effective and provide protection from the virus while still allowing virus to shed and transmit. the degree of this is also variable. so the scientists are being cautious on this until more known.
Interested on views on this. If the Gov introduce mandatory quarantine in hotels as widely reported what happens to Champ League football? I would have thought that if they granted an exception they'd be up for discrimination pretty sharpish, particularly as (some) footballers haven't exactly been shining examples of conformance.
Edit: Yes, I am coming home Friday and No, I don't want to spend 10+ days in Travelodge Horley
Edit: Yes, I am coming home Friday and No, I don't want to spend 10+ days in Travelodge Horley
I would guess it would be unchanged under the existing exemption for elite sports
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,826
crodonilson
He/Him
No I don't have any evidence and if you read my original post you quoted you will see that I was speculating as to whether or not this will happen. Scientists have publically said they do not yet understand but as more people get vaccinated we will get this data, in theory even despite lockdown as more people get vaccinated if it is true that it lessens or eliminates your ability to pass on the virus we should start to see a fairly substantial drop in daily case numbers. Lets hope this is the case as if it is our route back to a new normal will be much quicker than if the vaccine does not stop the spread.
A step too far imo, but money talks.
Other Gov'ts may come under pressure too, only needs one to say 'No Brit's means No Brit's'
Latest 'leak' - essentially looks like a T2/3 type thing from Easter.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ree-month-halfway-house-lockdown-easter-over/
Britain faces a three-month lockdown "halfway house" after Easter, with a full reopening delayed until all over-50s have had their second dose of the vaccine, The Telegraph understands.
Ministers are considering proposals to begin reopening swathes of the economy in April under similar restrictions to those in place over the summer, with “rule of six” and social distancing measures in force in pubs and restaurants.
A return to full normality will be delayed for at least 12 to 14 weeks to allow for all over-50s to have their second dose of the vaccine, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
Ministers are keen to reopen hospitality venues in some capacity before the G7 summit in the second week of June, when the UK will host world leaders in Carbis Bay, Cornwall.
National measures will be eased in advance of the summit, allowing pubs, restaurants and tourism to begin to trade again.
Boris Johnson has previously suggested that England will return to the geographic tier system after the lockdown ends, but sources suggested the tiers may apply to the whole country rather than to specific areas.
“The appetite for regional tiers will only come if you have large swathes of the country that are significantly lower in case numbers and new variant case numbers and hospitalisations,” a source said.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ree-month-halfway-house-lockdown-easter-over/
Britain faces a three-month lockdown "halfway house" after Easter, with a full reopening delayed until all over-50s have had their second dose of the vaccine, The Telegraph understands.
Ministers are considering proposals to begin reopening swathes of the economy in April under similar restrictions to those in place over the summer, with “rule of six” and social distancing measures in force in pubs and restaurants.
A return to full normality will be delayed for at least 12 to 14 weeks to allow for all over-50s to have their second dose of the vaccine, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
Ministers are keen to reopen hospitality venues in some capacity before the G7 summit in the second week of June, when the UK will host world leaders in Carbis Bay, Cornwall.
National measures will be eased in advance of the summit, allowing pubs, restaurants and tourism to begin to trade again.
Boris Johnson has previously suggested that England will return to the geographic tier system after the lockdown ends, but sources suggested the tiers may apply to the whole country rather than to specific areas.
“The appetite for regional tiers will only come if you have large swathes of the country that are significantly lower in case numbers and new variant case numbers and hospitalisations,” a source said.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
It's your own fault if you are old and fat, apparently.
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