Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Machiavelli]

That's not quite how it works. Viruses don't mutate because of need, they just mutate randomly because that's how biology works. Sometimes the mutations go on to replicate a lot, sometimes they don't. But they don't not bother simply because an existing strain is spreading a lot. They don't know that's what's happening.

I'm fully aware of random mutation, which is a much better characterisation of Darwin's theory than natural selection. That said, mutation isn't quite that random: Darwin wasn't articulating chaos theory. Of course, strains don't know what's happening (which is why I used need rather than want) but, if they've got an opportunity to carry on regardless (which they have at present), that's the course they'll take.
That said, I'm not an epidemiologist or a virologist, and am more than open to be proved wrong on this.

 

[Machiavelli]

WTI went -$40 (minus forty) at one point and now sits at -$20. this is the futures contract for May deliver that expires tomorrow, the price of oil will bounce back to ~$21 for June. so no being paid to fill up with petrol tomorrow.

With a bit of luck, that'll be the end of the fracking, tar sands, etc industries. They've been extremely successful over the past decade or so, but cause far more carbon emissions than crude oil. I am aware that that will in the short term increase dependence on the Middle East but, also with a bit of luck, the reset might prompt a renewed focus on renewables (which also have been extremely successful over the past decade or so).

 

[ManOfSussex]

Interesting piece at the end of Newsnight last night by diplomatic editor Mark Urban on where in Wuhan Covid-19 came from - https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hjnw/newsnight-20042020

 

[pb21]

Interesting piece at the end of Newsnight last night by diplomatic editor Mark Urban on where in Wuhan Covid-19 came from - https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hjnw/newsnight-20042020

Is it related to this?

 

[Notters]

It seems there's a possibility that children are a lot less infectious - as well as less susceptible, which could lead to schools reopening soon if proven?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ot-transmit-disease-to-more-than-170-contacts

 

[nicko31]

Pro Trump Georgia governer puts on his chips on black

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/21/politics/donald-trump-georgia-coronavirus-economy/index.html

Interesting to see how this plays out...

 

[ManOfSussex]

Pretty sobering figures from The ONS.

 

[A1X]

It seems there's a possibility that children are a lot less infectious - as well as less susceptible, which could lead to schools reopening soon if proven?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ot-transmit-disease-to-more-than-170-contacts

So we're quite prepared to put the teachers at risk?

 

[nicko31]

Pretty sobering figures from The ONS.

The situation in care homes is dire, it has way to go before this fully plays out..

 

[Napper]

The situation in care homes is dire, it has way to go before this fully plays out..

Interesting that France and others also report these. Shows much bigger failings in this country.

 

[atomised]

So we're quite prepared to put the teachers at risk?

The biggest problem I have with schools returning soon is the wider one. Parents on the school run twice a day and thinking based on being able to do that, they can get back to work or generally go out more. It's not just the children's ability to infect that is the issue and whilst that one story is encouraging I would need far more to convince me to send my children back

 

[nicko31]

Interesting that France and others also report these. Shows much bigger failings in this country.

Do you know if Spain includes them in their numbers? Heard homes are very bad there...

 

[ManOfSussex]

The situation in care homes is dire, it has way to go before this fully plays out..

Very dire. It's also the number of people who aren't going to hospital and their GP for things they ordinarily would and what that's doing to the rising death figures now and the legacy of it in the future. These figures are up to April 10th too and that was a public holiday, so less registrations would have been made then as well.

 

[ManOfSussex]

The biggest problem I have with schools returning soon is the wider one. Parents on the school run twice a day and thinking based on being able to do that, they can get back to work or generally go out more. It's not just the children's ability to infect that is the issue and whilst that one story is encouraging I would need far more to convince me to send my children back

Public transport issues too.

 

[Napper]

Do you know if Spain includes them in their numbers? Heard homes are very bad there...

I'm not sure , hard to pin down who reports what but I do know France does.

Certainly doesnt look like we are doing at all well. Lot of questions to answer once this is done. Lot of failings

 

[loz]

Pretty sobering figures from The ONS.

The highest death total in one week for 20 years...What the hell occurred Jan 2000 ? Did I miss something ?

 

[Swansman]

Seems like a big hassle to prepare the schools (distancing, keeping a lot of it outdoors and so on), transport to and from school and similar practical stuff just to keep it open for the last month. Must be easier, cheaper and safer just to keep them close until the summer vacation.

Edit: Just realized you dont have the same system with a 10 week vacation starting in early June, so might be worth it for you after all.

 

[beorhthelm]

With a bit of luck, that'll be the end of the fracking, tar sands, etc industries. They've been extremely successful over the past decade or so, but cause far more carbon emissions than crude oil. I am aware that that will in the short term increase dependence on the Middle East but, also with a bit of luck, the reset might prompt a renewed focus on renewables (which also have been extremely successful over the past decade or so).

its unlikely to help renewables when oil costs so little. fracking will be wiped out, it'll come back once the price rises as its easy and quick to start up operations.

 

[Machiavelli]

Pretty sobering figures from The ONS.

I don't think what they're currently indicating is quite as bad as what I feared. They're indicating that "at least 15%" of deaths are occurring outside hospitals, whereas in other European countries this percentage was nearer 50% and, if this transpires to be the case, things aren't quite that sobering. I'd still like to see some focus on the care home sector, which has been at best a low priority thus far.

 

[dazzer6666]

The highest death total in one week for 20 years...What the hell occurred Jan 2000 ? Did I miss something ?

Very high levels of flu....