Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Guinness Boy]

Germany only have 18 closed cases and have jumped from just over 200 to 1500 in 5 days. They have an awful lot of open cases and an awful lot of people who have the virus but currently don't know they do. There is a very good chance that it will explode in Germany soon and follow a similar linear to Italy.

My post was based on [MENTION=23795]Hugo Rune[/MENTION] 's link

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

According to that 99% of diagnosed cases in Germany are mild with only 9 serious cases and 2 deaths.

So the bed blocking dates in Bozza's link would not be correct in Germany.

 

[pb21]

My post was based on [MENTION=23795]Hugo Rune[/MENTION] 's link

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

According to that 99% of diagnosed cases in Germany are mild with only 9 serious cases and 2 deaths.

So the bed blocking dates in Bozza's link would not be correct in Germany.

Is mild and serious defined the same way in each country?

 

[Triggaaar]

It's not about giving a sh*t or not. It's about what will work.

Tell people to stop going out today and in a couple of weeks, with things not hitting a peak/very high level of infections, people will get bored/complacent and start ignoring the instructions, at what would be the worst possible time.

Although I agree that is a concern, I think the fact that we'd see a lot of people in other countries dying and see their health services failing, would help people understand we were doing the right thing.

And it's not like everyone needs to remain in-doors now, but IMO large event like football (crowds) should be cancelled.

It's crazy to think that anyone doesn't give a sh*t, this isn't a political issue.

If by 'anyone' you're referring to politicians, ok. If you're referring to the public, then I think you're underestimating how a large number of people will feel.

 

[Guinness Boy]

So,is the Government taking advice from the medics and scientists and following that advice? I am sure they are; the same I am sure Corbyn would have done if he had become PM.
Without having an intimate knowledge of everyone's politics, I cannot agree with your 'board's Tories' comment, but it does appear that most on here believe that the Government are listening to the best advice and implementing it as appropriate in a country such as ours, as opposed to a regime like China.
For me and plenty of others, I would suggest politics don't come into it and I am sure that goes for the boffins as well.

Yes, I am sure the Government are listening to best advice and acting as advised by those in the healthcare and scientific know. I'm no fan of Boris but he's doing a good job. But, politics, or at least leadership, do come in to it for that exact reason. If we were ignoring best advice and were where Italy or Iran are now questions would inevitably be asked of the PM's handling of the situation.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

This may sound barmy as I guess nobody wants to catch it. But it just seems inevitable it will get many of us before summer. With a vaccine over a year away we're not going to have the UK under social restriction quarantine till early next year.

On that basis, as there's allegedly 2 strains and one being much milder, if it gets to point there's nothing more we can do to stop it, it be would be preferable to somehow get the milder version. If there was any way that could be possible.

It suggests once you've had it, you're immune. And if you can't avoid it forever, would there be a way you can get the lite version rather than the original aggressive Wuhan one.?

OK, here is my take. I am a scientist (PhD) working in academia (research and teaching). My 'thing' is hypothesis generation and testing.

Question: How can I avoid catching this virus?

Answer: The only sure fire way is to avoid close contact with someone carrying the virus. Washing your hands won't help because it is spread by inhaling microdroplets exhaled by folk up to several metres away. This means complete self isolation.

Question: How long should I self isolate?

Answer: Until there is a vaccine. Yes, all the while the virus is in the population you will be at risk. The 'peak' of cases is expected to be in 2 to 3 months. I don't see a vaccine for a year. The risks of catching the disease will be lower in the late summer, so you should probably self-isolate till August

Question: Should I hoard?

Answer: if you plan to self isolate, of course. However you won't have the space at home to hoard everything you need.

Question: Self isolating seems impossible to implement effectively. I can't hole up for months. Is there an alternative?

Answer: Yes. If you are young (under 50) and free from respiratory issues (asthma, COPD etc), just live normally. If you get the virus you will live. If you are old or at risk, I would continue to self isolate provided you can get your shopping done by a family member, but frankly you are not guaranteed to stay well all the time you come into contact with people who go out and about. If I were a bit older I would probably stay in one room and get the missus to prepare my food while wearing a masko. (Edit, doc on the radio says 'wash your hands'....).

Question: Will the football season be completed on time?

Answer: No. We have a 'policy' of self isolation now, and the virus will go through the players like every other population. Because this illness is being viewed as if it is AIDS on steroids, no government will now say 'just man up and carry on'. As soon as one person gets it, and can't prove they haven't infected anyone, everything will grind to a halt in the 'frivolous' professions.

Question: What will happen in the wider world?

Answer: Who knows? I expect my hernia op to be postponed. In the long run we are all dead, but there is a sense that for the elderly and the vulnerable the long run isn't very long.

My best wishes to everyone.

Edit: What do I really think?

Answer: The news media is fanning the flames of hysteria. There is a subconscious desire to do this because it keeps people glued to the radio, TV and websites. The coronavirus is a modern social phenomenon as much as a medical issue. As a rational person (ho ho), even I find myself affected by news media. I know experts well enough to know the sound of busking. I know that when someone says 'can you guarantee I won't die' and the answer is 'er no', this is manna to the news media and is yet meaningless at the same time.

Bottom line, some people will get ill. Some may die. Most won't. Nothing much to see here. I wish I could trust the sound of my own voice a bit better, though.

Right, another virus phone-in to listen too....make myself a brew and off we go again.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

My post was based on [MENTION=23795]Hugo Rune[/MENTION] 's link

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

According to that 99% of diagnosed cases in Germany are mild with only 9 serious cases and 2 deaths.

So the bed blocking dates in Bozza's link would not be correct in Germany.

Every country codes their medical cases differently. It is widely accepted that most countries are behind Italy both in terms of when the virus took hold and also (according to Italian sources) the level of testing. For example Spain has attributed 1 death from early Feb to coronavirus which suggests the coding of cases and reporting isn't exactly accurate.

 

[Triggaaar]

Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has *afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days.

I think it's bizarre that the numbers for a new virus, which only one person had in December, is being directly compared with a virus that something like 38 million people already had (or have at any one time).

 

[Guinness Boy]

Is mild and serious defined the same way in each country?

You'd have to ask the website owners, but the statisticians are confident enough to be able to plot a serious and critical graph on both a linear and logarithmic basis for the whole world, so the definitions will have to be broadly similar. It's not unreasonable to assume "serious" means in hospital and "critical" means in ITU but I don't *know* that any more than you do.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#serious-critical

 

[pb21]

You'd have to ask the website owners, but the statisticians are confident enough to be able to plot a serious and critical graph on both a linear and logarithmic basis for the whole world, so the definitions will have to be broadly similar. It's not unreasonable to assume "serious" means in hospital and "critical" means in ITU but I don't *know* that any more than you do.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#serious-critical

That website is just compiled info from various sources. At the moment it says:

Sources
Data compiled and analyzed by Worldometer and provided by:

National Health Commission (NHC) of the People’s Republic of China
Health Commission of Hubei Province, China

Clearly they have other sources of data now, but where it comes to non-binary aspects, such as mild/serious, I am not sure they are comparing apples with apples.

I don't think it can be concluded from this data that in Germany 99% of confirmed cases are not in hospital.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

You'd have to ask the website owners, but the statisticians are confident enough to be able to plot a serious and critical graph on both a linear and logarithmic basis for the whole world, so the definitions will have to be broadly similar. It's not unreasonable to assume "serious" means in hospital and "critical" means in ITU but I don't *know* that any more than you do.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#serious-critical

I trust interpolation. I don't trust extrapolation. I have posted the Mark Twain quote about the location of Niagra Falls in recent history many times....

Extrapolations are 'believed' when they fit a narrative (like the oncoming effects of global warming).

The truth of it is we just don't know, and can but guess (or do 'model builfing' as it is known, technically).

 

[Nobby]

There won't be any 'I told you so',..... And optimism is a fine trait, but a day will soon come when the "it's just a flu" or "nothing much to worry about" camp will have their initial opinions overtaken by rapidly worsening events.

In a social democracy there is simply no way we can stop this without a cure or it mutating itself away.

In a social democracy, like many, with health services already creaking, its going to be one of the most defining periods of history in any of our lifetimes imho. And we're powerless to do much except pick up the wreckage.

What you just posted could be termed as scaremongering by many.

It could also be termed to be a distinct possibility

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I don’t understand why anyone is quoting the 80% infection rate stated as absolute worst case scenario. Well before it could get anywhere close to those numbers we’d be in China style lock down a country of 1.4bn who seem to have stemmed the tide at less than 100k infected. Everyone keeps quoting Italian stats but ignoring Germany’s. It is actually helpful as it means people are being more careful earlier but why would we be on par with the worst benchmark and not one of the best?

Well I think you're spot on with what will happen, by quoting the worst case scenario if we do nothing it will get people ready to accept the lockdowns which are surely coming.

 

[rogersix]

Are you for real? Could you be the exception to Darwin’s theory?

It is said you should feel guilty for exploiting the stupid, but for you I will would make an exception. Fancy a bet?

you're on a hiding to nothing there old son

 

[drew]

Yes, I am sure the Government are listening to best advice and acting as advised by those in the healthcare and scientific know. I'm no fan of Boris but he's doing a good job. But, politics, or at least leadership, do come in to it for that exact reason. If we were ignoring best advice and were where Italy or Iran are now questions would inevitably be asked of the PM's handling of the situation.

Until it's over, we won't know whether he's doing a good job or not. Part of their role will be to manage the release of information, manage hysteria, manage resources. We don't have enough resources (ITU beds/respirators etc) so to prevent hysteria you don't necessarily release all the info that is actually available.

 

[Guinness Boy]

That website is just compiled info from various sources. At the moment it says:



Clearly they have other sources of data now, but where it comes to non-binary aspects, such as mild/serious, I am not sure they are comparing apples with apples.

I don't think it can be concluded from this data that in Germany 99% of confirmed cases are not in hospital.

It's can't be concluded. It may be reasonably assumed. But, as below, assumption isn't scientific. However, as I also posted earlier this morning there is an entirely separate "ground zero" case there in the Diamond Princess. Every person on that ship will have been in very similar conditions and contact areas. The definition of seriousness and recovery will be the same, ship wide. And what we see is a 1% mortality rate and only 32 serious / critical cases out of 696 confirmed instances and 2600 guest capacity / 1100 crew (not sure if it was at capacity). It is a largely complete event although not beyond possibility that some of the non concluded cases may deteriorate. However, see below......

I trust interpolation. I don't trust extrapolation. I have posted the Mark Twain quote about the location of Niagra Falls in recent history many times....

Extrapolations are 'believed' when they fit a narrative (like the oncoming effects of global warming).

The truth of it is we just don't know, and can but guess (or do 'model builfing' as it is known, technically).

Well, I'm not going to argue with an actual medical scientist

The data I linked to is not an extrapolation but actual cases. And if we are saying extrapolating from that is dangerous and we really don't know then I'm ok with that, as the data (as above) seems mixed. But that means we really shouldn't be taking any of the scary "exponential" growth predictions and bed blocking dates seriously either.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Until it's over, we won't know whether he's doing a good job or not. Part of their role will be to manage the release of information, manage hysteria, manage resources. We don't have enough resources (ITU beds/respirators etc) so to prevent hysteria you don't necessarily release all the info that is actually available.

Agreed. But to date we are not Italy.

 

[The Clamp]

OK, here is my take. I am a scientist (PhD) working in academia (research and teaching). My 'thing' is hypothesis generation and testing.

Question: How can I avoid catching this virus?

Answer: The only sure fire way is to avoid close contact with someone carrying the virus. Washing your hands won't help because it is spread by inhaling microdroplets exhaled by folk up to several metres away. This means complete self isolation.

Question: How long should I self isolate?

Answer: Until there is a vaccine. Yes, all the while the virus is in the population you will be at risk. The 'peak' of cases is expected to be in 2 to 3 months. I don't see a vaccine for a year. The risks of catching the disease will be lower in the late summer, so you should probably self-isolate till August

Question: Should I hoard?

Answer: if you plan to self isolate, of course. However you won't have the space at home to hoard everything you need.

Question: Self isolating seems impossible to implement effectively. I can't hole up for months. Is there an alternative?

Answer: Yes. If you are young (under 50) and free from respiratory issues (asthma, COPD etc), just live normally. If you get the virus you will live. If you are old or at risk, I would continue to self isolate provided you can get your shopping done by a family member, but frankly you are not guaranteed to stay well all the time you come into contact with people who go out and about. If I were a bit older I would probably stay in one room and get the missus to prepare my food while wearing a masko. (Edit, doc on the radio says 'wash your hands'....).

Question: Will the football season be completed on time?

Answer: No. We have a 'policy' of self isolation now, and the virus will go through the players like every other population. Because this illness is being viewed as if it is AIDS on steroids, no government will now say 'just man up and carry on'. As soon as one person gets it, and can't prove they haven't infected anyone, everything will grind to a halt in the 'frivolous' professions.

Question: What will happen in the wider world?

Answer: Who knows? I expect my hernia op to be postponed. In the long run we are all dead, but there is a sense that for the elderly and the vulnerable the long run isn't very long.

My best wishes to everyone.

Edit: What do I really think?

Answer: The news media is fanning the flames of hysteria. There is a subconscious desire to do this because it keeps people glued to the radio, TV and websites. The coronavirus is a modern social phenomenon as much as a medical issue. As a rational person (ho ho), even I find myself affected by news media. I know experts well enough to know the sound of busking. I know that when someone says 'can you guarantee I won't die' and the answer is 'er no', this is manna to the news media and is yet meaningless at the same time.

Bottom line, some people will get ill. Some may die. Most won't. Nothing much to see here. I wish I could trust the sound of my own voice a bit better, though.

Right, another virus phone-in to listen too....make myself a brew and off we go again.

Best post on this thread. Common sense while recognising the issue. There are a few hysterical Henry’s on this board who would do well to read this post. Take a breath. And read it again.

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

OK, here is my take.

Cheers for that my old fruit.

 

[Wozza]

Government dashboard: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

Updated each lunchtime, I believe?

 

[Mtoto]

OK, here is my take. I am a scientist (PhD) working in academia (research and teaching). My 'thing' is hypothesis generation and testing.

Question: How can I avoid catching this virus?

Answer: The only sure fire way is to avoid close contact with someone carrying the virus. Washing your hands won't help because it is spread by inhaling microdroplets exhaled by folk up to several metres away. This means complete self isolation.

Question: How long should I self isolate?

Answer: Until there is a vaccine. Yes, all the while the virus is in the population you will be at risk. The 'peak' of cases is expected to be in 2 to 3 months. I don't see a vaccine for a year. The risks of catching the disease will be lower in the late summer, so you should probably self-isolate till August

Question: Should I hoard?

Answer: if you plan to self isolate, of course. However you won't have the space at home to hoard everything you need.

Question: Self isolating seems impossible to implement effectively. I can't hole up for months. Is there an alternative?

Answer: Yes. If you are young (under 50) and free from respiratory issues (asthma, COPD etc), just live normally. If you get the virus you will live. If you are old or at risk, I would continue to self isolate provided you can get your shopping done by a family member, but frankly you are not guaranteed to stay well all the time you come into contact with people who go out and about. If I were a bit older I would probably stay in one room and get the missus to prepare my food while wearing a masko. (Edit, doc on the radio says 'wash your hands'....).

Question: Will the football season be completed on time?

Answer: No. We have a 'policy' of self isolation now, and the virus will go through the players like every other population. Because this illness is being viewed as if it is AIDS on steroids, no government will now say 'just man up and carry on'. As soon as one person gets it, and can't prove they haven't infected anyone, everything will grind to a halt in the 'frivolous' professions.

Question: What will happen in the wider world?

Answer: Who knows? I expect my hernia op to be postponed. In the long run we are all dead, but there is a sense that for the elderly and the vulnerable the long run isn't very long.

My best wishes to everyone.

Edit: What do I really think?

Answer: The news media is fanning the flames of hysteria. There is a subconscious desire to do this because it keeps people glued to the radio, TV and websites. The coronavirus is a modern social phenomenon as much as a medical issue. As a rational person (ho ho), even I find myself affected by news media. I know experts well enough to know the sound of busking. I know that when someone says 'can you guarantee I won't die' and the answer is 'er no', this is manna to the news media and is yet meaningless at the same time.

Bottom line, some people will get ill. Some may die. Most won't. Nothing much to see here. I wish I could trust the sound of my own voice a bit better, though.

Right, another virus phone-in to listen too....make myself a brew and off we go again.

More insight and sense in this post than the rest of the thread put together imo.

As a hack of 30 years' standing, I think that the news media are guilty as charged. The only mitigation I'd offer is that they are now operating and competing in a social media age and with newspaper circulations in terminal decline, and they know that shock-horror headlines are the only ones that will get any attention. The talking heads that are brought in to offer "expert" advice also end up playing the same game. They know very well that if they offer a more sober, less hysterical assessment - like yours, for instance - they won't be asked back. It turns into a vicious (or virtuous, in some cases) circle, an arms race in apocalyptic predictions. After that, it's a little bit like the Dutch Tulip craze. If everyone else seems to be buying into it, people feel obliged to join in, even when they know deep down that spending all their savings on a tulip bulb is madness.

Still, I'm happily mingling with the crowds at Cheltenham all week so maybe I'm the mad one ...