Labour win by election, Cameron receives a message

[Napper]

Take note Tories. You are messing it up

 

[Giraffe]

Completely meaningless. Labour win a traditional labour seat, big wow.

 

[Chicken Run]

Take note Tories. You are messing it up

What message do you think this by election result sends to Cameron then? Go on impress me, I dare you.

 

[bhaexpress]

Completely meaningless. Labour win a traditional labour seat, big wow.

Correct answer.

 

[Grendel]

There was a chap on the news this morning who said that the incumbent party hasn't won a by election for something like 25 years.

 

[Gwylan]

Completely meaningless. Labour win a traditional labour seat, big wow.

Not really. This was a by-election held after the Labour MP was disqualified for electoral fraud - that should have counted heavily against Labour, particularly in a week that's seen another Labour MP resign after a fraud conviction. You'd normally expect Labour to lose the seat in those circumstances so it's a sign that the Labour vote is holding up pretty well and is certainly far from meaningless - although it's not especially astonishing either.

The more interesting statistic is the collapse of the Tory vote: was that due to dissatisfaction with the Tories or was it due to Tory supporters propping up the Lib Dem vote. We won't really see that until there's a by-election in a Tory-held seat, or one where they came second.

 

[ROKERITE]

Not really. This was a by-election held after the Labour MP was disqualified for electoral fraud - that should have counted heavily against Labour, particularly in a week that's seen another Labour MP resign after a fraud conviction. You'd normally expect Labour to lose the seat in those circumstances so it's a sign that the Labour vote is holding up pretty well and is certainly far from meaningless - although it's not especially astonishing either.

The more interesting statistic is the collapse of the Tory vote: was that due to dissatisfaction with the Tories or was it due to Tory supporters propping up the Lib Dem vote. We won't really see that until there's a by-election in a Tory-held seat, or one where they came second.

No, you wouldn't expect Labour to lose even though the previous incumbent was an unpleasant cheat; that's not how the electorate thinks. By-elections tend to be irrelevant but I doubt there's ever been a less significant one than yesterday's.

 

[beorhthelm]

The more interesting statistic is the collapse of the Tory vote: was that due to dissatisfaction with the Tories or was it due to Tory supporters propping up the Lib Dem vote.

looking at the raw numbers id say it was due to the Tory vote simply not turning out. in fact, looks like the Liberals didnt either (who could blame them). 10k lower turnout is directly accounted for in -7k Tories and -3k Liberals. Labour gained 530 votes, still over 3000 down on the 2005 vote. i think Labour did well to get their core vote out.

 

[Tony Meolas Loan Spell]

Nothing to see here.

 

[Gwylan]

looking at the raw numbers id say it was due to the Tory vote simply not turning out. in fact, looks like the Liberals didnt either (who could blame them).

If the Lib Dems won't turn out for a by-election in which they trying to make up a majority of just a 100 in a week where the incumbent party is tainted with fraud and with the third-placed party not making much of an effort, then the Lib Dems may as well give up now because they won't have any better opportunities to register a by-election win in this parliament.

 

[nwgull]

The win has nothing to do with the Tories, who have always been in 3rd place in the constituency. The increased margin of the win is due to the number of previously libdem voters who feel disenfranchised by the coalition and either didn't vote or voted labour to try and send a message to Nick Clegg.

 

[Fungus]

What message do you think this by election result sends to Cameron then? Go on impress me, I dare you.

The message is "hoof it forward", even if more progress is eventually made by playing it around the back.

 

[ROSM]

If the Lib Dems won't turn out for a by-election in which they trying to make up a majority of just a 100 in a week where the incumbent party is tainted with fraud and with the third-placed party not making much of an effort, then the Lib Dems may as well give up now because they won't have any better opportunities to register a by-election win in this parliament.

There are some interesting subtexts to this result;

- the tories didn't campaign strongly which has upset some in their own party. Their reduced vote and share shows the impact this had

- the lib dem meltdown didn't happen (in fact they upped their share of the vote) which indicates that they did get their people out and some tories have voted for them as well

- the majority of the votes up for grabs went to Labour which in pure by election terms is not a surprise given that many natural labour voters may not have voted at all in the general election given the widespread public view of Gordon Brown and that the close majority last time may have shocked some who didn't vote in may thinkig it a forgone conclusion.

- However against a back drop of election fraud the size of the majority did surprise me.

The importance of this could be up played and down played depending on perspective over the next few weeks but it is one of a number of indicators (maybe as to how the coalition will fight future by elections in this parliament) which could show that within maybe 3 years, labour backed by dissatisfied lib dems and some of the smaller parties, could inflict some damage onto the coalition's plans in key votes.

 

[Mr Banana]

The size was surprising, but I think the real story is that the Lib Dems didn't really suffer. I was kinda hoping for that, because if they'd done as badly as the polls were suggesting - 7% - that would have suggested they are not strong enough to hold their own. Which would weaken the coalition and eventually force an early election.

 

[Giraffe]

And early signs of many Tories voting lib dem. Would prove interesting in a general election.

 

[Scampi]

If there's anything interesting in this result, it's how little it tells us about anything. It's a bit of a no score draw as far as i can see.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Not really. This was a by-election held after the Labour MP was disqualified for electoral fraud - that should have counted heavily against Labour, particularly in a week that's seen another Labour MP resign after a fraud conviction. You'd normally expect Labour to lose the seat in those circumstances so it's a sign that the Labour vote is holding up pretty well and is certainly far from meaningless - although it's not especially astonishing either.

- However against a back drop of election fraud the size of the majority did surprise me.

I don't agree with this argument that Labour would have suffered because of the previous candidates fraud. He was removed. People were either voting for the current candidate or the Labour Party itself. Therefore the previous fraud was very unlikely to have much of an impact on this election - especially given that I would suspect many voters didn't really see what he did as fraud in the same way as the MPs expenses scandal.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Not really. This was a by-election held after the Labour MP was disqualified for electoral fraud - that should have counted heavily against Labour, particularly in a week that's seen another Labour MP resign after a fraud conviction. You'd normally expect Labour to lose the seat in those circumstances so it's a sign that the Labour vote is holding up pretty well and is certainly far from meaningless - although it's not especially astonishing either.

The more interesting statistic is the collapse of the Tory vote: was that due to dissatisfaction with the Tories or was it due to Tory supporters propping up the Lib Dem vote. We won't really see that until there's a by-election in a Tory-held seat, or one where they came second.

Is the correct answer.

 

[Tony Meolas Loan Spell]

Hmm Labour WIN in Oldham.

Hardly earth shattering news is it. At the last election most of the South was Blue and Yellow anyway (with a bit of Green and Red) up north and in Chilly Jocko land it was Red (with allowances for SNP).

So am I surprised no?

Will people clutch at straws and read too much into it? Of course they will to suit their own agendas.

 

[Gwylan]

Therefore the previous fraud was very unlikely to have much of an impact on this election - especially given that I would suspect many voters didn't really see what he did as fraud in the same way as the MPs expenses scandal.

One thing that I don't know is whether many of the people behind the Woolas leaflet were still involved in the party - none of the reporting made that clear. Is the agent the same for example, things like that may have had an effect.

However, the jailing of one ex-Labour MP and the resignation of another thanks to fraud charges would have jogged people's memories of the expenses scandal. And particularly when the Labour candidate in the by-election was accused of being economical with the truth about where her main residence was ... and that's before she became an MP.

Hmm Labour WIN in Oldham.

Hardly earth shattering news is it. At the last election most of the South was Blue and Yellow anyway (with a bit of Green and Red) up north and in Chilly Jocko land it was Red (with allowances for SNP).

So am I surprised no?

I was very surprised. A majority of 100 is prime for over-turning at a by-election. Lib Dems have been very strong in the area outside Manchester, I thought they'd win this (until I saw the opinion poll earlier this week).