Ferrets tips - what a piss take

[Bring back Bryan wade!!]

Backing the home win and the draw tomorrow. Jesus talk about cover all eventualities. Not exactly taking any risks is he.

 

[Gazwag]

Maybe you should read his tip properly

 

[Bring back Bryan wade!!]

Maybe you should read his tip properly

Yes definitely backing both the home win and draw ht ft so as I stated backing the home win and the draw....

 

[Matrix10]

Maybe you should learn more about odds and winning

 

[Bring back Bryan wade!!]

Maybe you should learn more about odds and winning

I don't need any advice on that front thanks mate, by backing both the profit would be negligible unless you have hundreds to stake.

 

[Gazwag]

Yes definitely backing both the home win and draw ht ft so as I stated backing the home win and the draw....

He's tipping draw ht/draw ft that is not the same as tipping a draw

 

[Bring back Bryan wade!!]

He's tipping draw ht/draw ft that is not the same as tipping a draw

Not if your splitting hairs no but either way it's time he started to justify his 'expert' tipster status. A five year old could come up with those tips.

 

[Gazwag]

Its not splitting hairs

A draw is 12/5

Draw/Draw is 4/1

big difference

as he says its his insurance bet

 

[Gazwag]

and anyway other posters have moaned about his tips before the event in previous matches and low and behold he was the one that made a profit.

 

[Bring back Bryan wade!!]

Meh..... I want some guaranteed 12/1 shots, correct scoreline, how many bookings, etc

Its not splitting hairs

A draw is 12/5

Draw/Draw is 4/1

big difference

as he says its his insurance bet

 

[Gazwag]

Meh..... I want some guaranteed 12/1 shots, correct scoreline, how many bookings, etc

better go and talk to Rooney's dad then


oh and Vicente to score first @ 12/1 isn't a bad call

 

[The Peanut Roaster]

Backing the home win and the draw tomorrow. Jesus talk about cover all eventualities. Not exactly taking any risks is he.

It's called percentages.

I will officially, with the consent of young Bozza, lay any bet of yours that you care to post on here, subject to you 'pm me'. and putting your stake into my paypal account.

When you win, you will be paid with immediate effect.

Put your money where your mouth is, because I am.

 

[Bring back Bryan wade!!]

Ferret is that you?

Ok what odds will you give me on a Wales / New Zealand double in the rugby tomorrow?

It's called percentages.

I will officially, with the consent of young Bozza, lay any bet of yours that you care to post on here, subject to you 'pm me'. and putting your stake into my paypal account.

When you win, you will be paid with immediate effect.

Put your money where your mouth is, because I am.

 

[Bring back Bryan wade!!]

Hmmm... Seems to have gone quiet at your end.

It's called percentages.

I will officially, with the consent of young Bozza, lay any bet of yours that you care to post on here, subject to you 'pm me'. and putting your stake into my paypal account.

When you win, you will be paid with immediate effect.

Put your money where your mouth is, because I am.

 

[Mustela Furo]

it's time he started to justify his 'expert' tipster status. A five year old could come up with those tips.

ROR .... I take it the OP has only just stumbled across the betting tips on the website. To justify my "expert tipster status" (n.b. not a term I would use incidentally), I would point out that I have made a decent profit in every one of the nine seasons I have been providing the tips, despite being hampered by only being able to tip from one bookmakers odds lists.

Backing the home win and the draw tomorrow. Jesus talk about cover all eventualities. Not exactly taking any risks is he.

I would also highlight that it is impossible to make a profit by covering all eventualities (n.b. I am of course aware of arbitrage - and it plays very heavily in my own punting - but as mentioned I can only "tip" one bookies offerings, and no bookie yet has ever arbed themselves --- at least not intentionally .... and unintentional price mistakes just result in the wager being gubbed nine times out of then!) ...

The only way to make a profit consistently is value betting ... and that means taking odds that are greater than the true likelihood of that outcome coming to fruition.

Enough of the sermon (yawn!) ... but one more clarification that the OP might have missed ... "insurance" means laying enough on that bet to cover your stakes on the main bet. i.e. if you place £45 on the win ... then place £10 on the insurance at 9/2 .... then hopefully the insurance will cover your losses should the main bet not oblige

I don't always recommend insurance wagers ... think this is possibly only the second, maybe the third time this season ... but I can see the game going one of two ways tomorrow.

Meh..... I want some guaranteed 12/1 shots, correct scoreline etc

I have in previous weeks nominated long price offerings that have regularly come up, but this week there is nothing of significant value (again bear in mind that I only have one set of odds to select from) so instead it is a relatively short-priced set of offerings.

No guarantees that any of them will win of course --- the only guarantee is that you are getting value for money and that, as mentioned at the top of this reply, if you consistently back over the odds then you cannot fail to make a profit in the long term .... the value I aim to add (if you pardon the pun) is the ability to ascertain when something is overpriced.

Ferret is that you?

Ok what odds will you give me on a Wales / New Zealand double in the rugby tomorrow?

No The Peanut Roaster is not me ... I am me (!) ... as for the Wales / New Zealand double .. .value would be 13/8 if you can get it .... As singles Wales are value around the 5/6 mark (Unibet are 1.85 (17/20)) ... but France would be value at 6/4 ..... New Zealand I would want 8/15 and Australia become value at 5/2 (Betfred and the Tote both offer 3.5 (12/5)). The Draw is the horrible elephant in the room with these potentially close matches though.

Nuff said - whatever you back tomorrow ... Good Luck!

 

[Gazwag]

Hmmm... Seems to have gone quiet at your end.

Now who's gone quiet

 

[Bring back Bryan wade!!]

Fair play for coming on and putting your POV across. I guess I was expecting a 1st goalscorer tip at better value than 5's. Having said that if you have consistently been making profit season in season out then you know your stuff. As an aside, any chance of a guest slot next week for tips in the West Ham game?

ROR .... I take it the OP has only just stumbled across the betting tips on the website. To justify my "expert tipster status" (n.b. not a term I would use incidentally), I would point out that I have made a decent profit in every one of the nine seasons I have been providing the tips, despite being hampered by only being able to tip from one bookmakers odds lists.




I would also highlight that it is impossible to make a profit by covering all eventualities (n.b. I am of course aware of arbitrage - and it plays very heavily in my own punting - but as mentioned I can only "tip" one bookies offerings, and no bookie yet has ever arbed themselves --- at least not intentionally .... and unintentional price mistakes just result in the wager being gubbed nine times out of then!) ...

The only way to make a profit consistently is value betting ... and that means taking odds that are greater than the true likelihood of that outcome coming to fruition.

Enough of the sermon (yawn!) ... but one more clarification that the OP might have missed ... "insurance" means laying enough on that bet to cover your stakes on the main bet. i.e. if you place £45 on the win ... then place £10 on the insurance at 9/2 .... then hopefully the insurance will cover your losses should the main bet not oblige

I don't always recommend insurance wagers ... think this is possibly only the second, maybe the third time this season ... but I can see the game going one of two ways tomorrow.



I have in previous weeks nominated long price offerings that have regularly come up, but this week there is nothing of significant value (again bear in mind that I only have one set of odds to select from) so instead it is a relatively short-priced set of offerings.

No guarantees that any of them will win of course --- the only guarantee is that you are getting value for money and that, as mentioned at the top of this reply, if you consistently back over the odds then you cannot fail to make a profit in the long term .... the value I aim to add (if you pardon the pun) is the ability to ascertain when something is overpriced.



No The Peanut Roaster is not me ... I am me (!) ... as for the Wales / New Zealand double .. .value would be 13/8 if you can get it .... Wales are value around the 5/6 mark ... but France are value at 6/4 ..... New Zealand I would want 8/15 and Austrlia become value at 5/2. .... no bookies are offering those prices at present so I am not punting on the semis ... .but may have a tickle in running


Nuff said - whatever you back tomorrow ... Good Luck!

 

[Mustela Furo]

Fair play for coming on and putting your POV across. I guess I was expecting a 1st goalscorer tip at better value than 5's.

I think what you meant to say was "longer price than 5's" ... please don't confuse "value" with prices. I will back 1/10 shots if I feel they represent value, and similarly I back 40/1's or longer as well.

For example tonight I had Borussia Dortmund at 12/5 to beat Werder Bremen outright, and 7/2 on the half-time/full-time -- You would probably dismiss these as too short but in reality they represented amazing value. Earlier in the week I also had Spain to beat Scotland (1/5 - yes that was also value!).

If you really want a goalscorer then Craig Noone (14/1 - Skybet ... only 9/1 with Coral) and Romain Vincelot (25/1 - Ladbrokes) are probably your best bets. Noone I think will start and is always a threat, while Vincelot scored 12 times last season from midfield ... if he plays there tomorrow that price is going to look meaty.... if he starts on the bench and comes on after the first goal is scored then you get your money back.

 

[Garage_Doors]

why do the say 12/5 rather than 2.4/1 at least that's easier to equate to 4/1.

 

[Mustela Furo]

why do the say 12/5 rather than 2.4/1 at least that's easier to equate to 4/1.

Actually I agree ... I use the decimalisation all the time myself in my own punting - it makes mental calculations a lot quicker(!) However, the traditional way of displaying odds is still being perpetuated by the bookies - particularly in the shops and also in the media (which I have to base my writing standards to). Also most punters still seem to prefer the odds written that way!

I think it is gradually changing to decimalisation, and the "new" odds are helping to drive that .... for example you never used to get 9/5, 11/5, 12/5 in the past ... and you rarely see 85/40 or 8/15 any more .... plus the fact that most online sites do offer fractions or decimals will help expedite things (default is still fractions though).