[Politics] ** EU Elections Poll ** - The vote that we never thought we would get!

[beorhthelm]

Let’s park the bullshit, no one would believe that

what are you questioning here? numbers seem legit.

really, its time for everyone to accept the deal on offer from EU and move on. hard brexiteers are obviously not going to get a better deal, soft leave/reluctant leave arent going to get a better deal. see what can be done in the negotiations for the future relation.

 

[nicko31]

what are you questioning here? numbers seem legit.

You can't just present all the Labour and Tories votes as LEAVE, that someones opinion not FACT

 

[dingodan]

It makes me laugh that Labour are saying they want a General Election, and that they should become overtly for remain or a 2nd vote.

Labour’s path to victory is through Leave-voting Conservative marginals
78% of [Labours target seat] constituencies voted Leave. While there are a handful of Remain-voting Tory seats which Labour must win, they are vastly outnumbered by Leave-voting constituencies...

...On a pro-Leave manifesto, Corbyn increased Labour’s share of the national vote by 10 percentage points, the highest increase in the popular vote for Labour in a general election since 1945. In that election, a majority of the gains Labour made off the Conservatives were in Leave-voting constituencies. Overall, 61% of the constituencies Labour won in 2017 are estimated to have voted Leave.

[Also, if there were a 2nd vote]:
Some might object to this analysis on the presumption that there has been a dramatic shift to Remain since the 2016 election. There is, however, little empirical evidence of mass ‘Bregret’. Indeed, one of the most striking facts about British politics since the referendum is the reasonably consistent support for Leave and Remain.

While Remain has budged up slightly in the polls, the swing is relatively trivial and pales in comparison to other dramatic polling surges and falls we’ve seen in public opinion polling over the same period, including support for the political parties and party leadership, which have proven to be much more volatile. EU referendum vote choice stands out for its stability.

Source: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019...-through-leave-voting-conservative-marginals/

 

[Baker lite]

You can't just present all the Labour and Tories votes as LEAVE, that someones opinion not FACT

The FACT is that both those partys stood on a 2017 manifesto to honour the 2016 referendum, Labour could either renege on that and alienate their heartlands and appease the Waitrose mafia of Islington, like I said earlier, Labour are now the kingmakers.


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[albion68]

It is not undemocratic to take it to the people, that is the definition of democracy. You Brexiteers have had three years to exit and ****ed it up

Who are these Brexiteers you are talking about ,voters or MP`s ? . Baring in mind Parliament is mostly Remain ,we voters can`t do a lot so what do you mean .

 

[nicko31]

The FACT is that both those partys stood on a 2017 manifesto to honour the 2016 referendum, Labour could either renege on that and alienate their heartlands and appease the Waitrose mafia of Islington, like I said earlier, Labour are now the kingmakers.


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You posted fake documents, never good if you are trying to argue your case...

 

[Baker lite]

You posted fake documents, never good if you are trying to argue your case...

Ok.
31.6+14.1+9.1+3.3=?


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[Sussex Nomad]

If there was a general election now, right now, the two party state would go out of the window, forever.

 

[dingodan]

Here's how I see where we are.

Assuming we end up with a WTO exit PM, there will only be one way to prevent it, and that would be for Conservative MP's who oppose that to vote against the Government in a no confidence vote. Those MP's will lose their seats. Those seats won't go to Labour, since they will be campaigning on a remain ticket. There will be only one party viewed as being for honouring the referendum, The Brexit Party.

In 2017 the gains Labour made in Conservative marginals were mostly in leave constituencies. They will lose those seats on a remain ticket. Labour also need to win new marginals, the vast majority of which are also leave constituencies. They won't win those. Labour simply cannot make the gains they need, and they won't even keep the gains they made in 2017, because back then they campaigned on a platform of leaving the EU. The Conservatives will struggle to keep any of those two groups of seats if Conservative MP's triggered the GE to block a WTO exit. The only party which will be viewed as pro-leaving and honouring the referendum will be The Brexit Party.

It comes down to what the anti-Brexit Conservatives do in the event of a confidence motion, and the fact is that when it comes to the crunch Conservative MP's who oppose a WTO Brexit will have two choices. Don't bring down the Government, and allow the WTO Brexit to take place under a Conservative PM. Or, bring down the government, destroy the Conservative Party, usher in an insurgency from the Brexit Party and probably end up getting a WTO Brexit anyway, watching it happen from their new day jobs outside Parliament.

 

[beorhthelm]

You can't just present all the Labour and Tories votes as LEAVE, that someones opinion not FACT

maybe not all the votes, but the parties stand on a leave manifesto.

 

[Baker lite]

maybe not all the votes, but the parties stand on a leave manifesto.

You won’t get through, it’s the point I’m trying to make, Labour have a big decision to make now, they are the kingmakers, alienation of their heartlands to appease their London elite vote?


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[LlcoolJ]

Here's how I see where we are.

Assuming we end up with a WTO exit PM, there will only be one way to prevent it, and that would be for Conservative MP's who oppose that to vote against the Government in a no confidence vote. Those MP's will lose their seats. Those seats won't go to Labour, since they will be campaigning on a remain ticket. There will be only one party viewed as being for honouring the referendum, The Brexit Party.

In 2017 the gains Labour made in Conservative marginals were mostly in leave constituencies. They will lose those seats on a remain ticket. Labour also need to win new marginals, the vast majority of which are also leave constituencies. They won't win those. Labour simply cannot make the gains they need, and they won't even keep the gains they made in 2017, because back then they campaigned on a platform of leaving the EU. The Conservatives will struggle to keep any of those two groups of seats if Conservative MP's triggered the GE to block a WTO exit. The only party which will be viewed as pro-leaving and honouring the referendum will be The Brexit Party.

It comes down to what the anti-Brexit Conservatives do in the event of a confidence motion, and the fact is that when it comes to the crunch Conservative MP's who oppose a WTO Brexit will have two choices. Don't bring down the Government, and allow the WTO Brexit to take place under a Conservative PM. Or, bring down the government, destroy the Conservative Party, usher in an insurgency from the Brexit Party and probably end up getting a WTO Brexit anyway, watching it happen from their new day jobs outside Parliament.

So you're saying that a "No deal" situation/conclusion is inevitable.

Completely disagree. Huge flaws and assumptions in every part of that argument.

Farage has got five more seats, that's all. Percentage of vote (in a 37% turnout) is actually still pro Remain.

But you're projecting that "The Brexit Party" will somehow control parliament?

Ok.

 

[dingodan]

So you're saying that a "No deal" situation/conclusion is inevitable.

Completely disagree. Huge flaws and assumptions in every part of that argument.

Farage has got five more seats, that's all. Percentage of vote (in a 37% turnout) is actually still pro Remain.

But you're projecting that "The Brexit Party" will somehow control parliament?

Ok.

If Labour become a "remain" party, and Conservatives become the party which blocked a WTO Brexit, then both will get destroyed in a GE. Where will the votes go? Most conservative votes to the Brexit Party, and some Labour votes also. If Labour made some modest gains in 2017 by campaining on a platform of leaving (gains they made were majority leave consituencies), those gains will surely go when they reverse their position. Where exactly are labours new votes going to come from? Also factor in the loss of Labour votes due to the whole anti-semitism row etc. Like I said Labour have to target 45 seats in Conservative marginals to become the Government - 78% of those are leave consituencies. Do the maths.

The one argument you could make is that EU election results don't translate into GE results. But a general election triggered because of Brexit will be viewed through the prism of Brexit just like these EU elections were. If that happens, Conservatives are not the party to vote for if you want Brexit since they failed to deliver it and actually blocked it. Labour aren't the party to vote for if you want Brexit since they reversed position from 2017. There will be one party to vote for if you are going to make it about Brexit (which this GE will certainly be), and that will be the Brexit Party.

Who, by the way, have some seriously high calibre candidates.

 

[LlcoolJ]

If Labour become a "remain" party, and Conservatives become the party which blocked a WTO Brexit, then both will get destroyed in a GE. Where will the votes go? Most conservative votes to the Brexit Party, and some Labour votes also. If Labour made some modest gains in 2017 by campaining on a platform of leaving (gains they made were majority leave consituencies), those gains will surely go when they reverse their position. Where exactly are labours new votes going to come from? Also factor in the loss of Labour votes due to the whole anti-semitism row etc. Like I said Labour have to target 45 seats in Conservative marginals to become the Government - 78% of those are leave consituencies. Do the maths.

The one argument you could make is that EU election results don't translate into GE results. But a general election triggered because of Brexit will be viewed through the prism of Brexit just like these EU elections were. If that happens, Conservatives are not the party to vote for if you want Brexit since they failed to deliver it and actually blocked it. Labour aren't the party to vote for if you want Brexit since they reversed position from 2017. There will be one party to vote for if you are going to make it about Brexit (which this GE will certainly be), and that will be the Brexit Party.

Who, by the way, have some seriously high calibre candidates.

You've repeated yourself very nicely but you haven't actually replied to anything I wrote.

 

[dingodan]

You've repeated yourself very nicely but you haven't actually replied to anything I wrote.

A WTO Brexit is inevitable, unless a GE is triggered by a confidence vote. If that happens, then what I said in my post applies.

Leave and remain seem to be essentially at the same place they always have been if you look at the polling. In the GE which followed the vote the Conservative Party won, and that was against a Labour Party which campained on leaving the EU too. The majority of Conservative voters are for leaving the EU, (as are quite a few Labour voters). Again, do the maths.

 

[LlcoolJ]

A WTO Brexit is inevitable, unless a GE is triggered by a confidence vote. If that happens, then what I said in my post applies.

Leave and remain seem to be essentially at the same place they always have been if you look at the polling. In the GE which followed the vote the Conservative Party won, and that was against a Labour Party which campained on leaving the EU too. The majority of Conservative voters are for leaving the EU, (as are quite a few Labour voters). Again, do the maths.

Please stop telling me to do maths. It's about the only thing I'm good at.

You're not talking about maths, you're talking about conjecture, guesswork and assumptions. In addition, you still haven't replied to any of the points I raised, preferring instead to repeat your own mantra.

It's a bit odd really, but you carry on. You're wrong btw.

 

[dingodan]

Please stop telling me to do maths. It's about the only thing I'm good at.

You're not talking about maths, you're talking about conjecture, guesswork and assumptions. In addition, you still haven't replied to any of the points I raised, preferring instead to repeat your own mantra.

It's a bit odd really, but you carry on. You're wrong btw.

Time will tell.

 

[LlcoolJ]

Time will tell.

And on that point, I completely agree. [emoji106]

 

[GT49er]

It is not undemocratic to take it to the people, that is the definition of democracy. You Brexiteers have had three years to exit and ****ed it up

'We' Brexiteers were not in a position of power. We had to rely on politicians in Westminster, who had been given a mandate based on what they'd promised, and who welched on it.

 

[nicko31]

Ok.
31.6+14.1+9.1+3.3=?


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The way the information is presented is disingenuous and undermines your position further. You can't say all Labour and Tory votes in the EU election were LEAVE, it would be as ridiculous for me to argue all Labour and Tory votes were REMAIN

The fact is we don't know.