[Politics] ** EU Elections Poll ** - The vote that we never thought we would get!

[beorhthelm]

Eh? The Brexit vote has plummeted massively since 2016.

2016 - 17.4m votes and 52% share.
2019 - 5m votes and 32% share.

The People have spoken, and they very clearly do not want Brexit anymore.

"You lost." "Get over it." Stop trying to ignore democracy and the Will of the People, just because it doesn't suit your views.

not sure why the votes for Conservative and Labour, on a leave manifesto, gets omitted from the count so lightly.

 

[shingle]

Brexit party = Leave (as it says on tin)
UKIP = Leave (as it says on tin)
Conservative Vote = Mostly Leave
Labour Vote = Unknown if remain or leave
Lib/Dem = Remain, although some of their voters would have voted for them irrespective of Leave/Remain issue out of party loyalty
Green = Mostly remain, but again some of their voters voted primarily for green issues
Change Uk = Remain

Conclusion = Voting indicates narrow Leave majority.

 

[nicko31]

No Deal is in a massive minority, and wouldn't get through Parliament. Yet Brexiteers vote down all other ways of leaving.

Looking like Second Referendum is now inevitable, impossible to see another way through.

If I was a leaver I'd have taken May's deal and got out. Brexit won by a small margin and it marred with fraud with more under investigation. Quit while you're ahead..

Ultimately, their ideology could be their undoing and could end up with no Brexit at all.

Gove did say, vote for May's deal and have jam tomorrow.

 

[shingle]

Eh? The Brexit vote has plummeted massively since 2016.

2016 - 17.4m votes and 52% share.
2019 - 5m votes and 32% share.

The People have spoken, and they very clearly do not want Brexit anymore.

"You lost." "Get over it." Stop trying to ignore democracy and the Will of the People, just because it doesn't suit your views.

How can anyone be so obtuse, it's laughable. 2016 was a binary choice in or out, roll on 2019 and you ignore the ukip vote, conservative vote and doubtless some of the Labour vote to your calculations, and also some people voting for other reasons. If you don't mind me asking, how old are you?

 

[dingodan]

That's completely skewed as you well know. Also massively out of date - we literally had a vote on it a couple of days ago mate.

It got 32% of 37% of the country. People don't want No Deal Brexit. Less than 10% of the country voted for it.

You are in dream land.

The Brexit Party won hands down. & before you start playing the game of "remain parties got more votes",

- On April 30th only 53 per cent of Brits knew that the Liberal Democrats were anti-Brexit. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...9/04/30/which-parties-are-pro-and-anti-brexit

- Conservatives are a pro-Leave party

- An Ipsos Mori poll published last week found 46 per cent of Labour voters believe the party stands for leaving the EU, while 38 per cent said it was pro-remain. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...l-leave-remain-corbyn-ipso-mori-a8921901.html

- How many green votes were about Brexit and how many were about Environmental issues?

 

[nicko31]

Brexit party = Leave (as it says on tin)
UKIP = Leave (as it says on tin)
Conservative Vote = Mostly Leave
Labour Vote = Unknown if remain or leave
Lib/Dem = Remain, although some of their voters would have voted for them irrespective of Leave/Remain issue out of party loyalty
Green = Mostly remain, but again some of their voters voted primarily for green issues
Change Uk = Remain

Conclusion = Voting indicates narrow Leave majority.

Even if you believe you're own lies, there is still no mandate for WTO Brexit no matter how you dress it up

 

[dingodan]

Even if you believe you're own lies, there is still no mandate for WTO Brexit no matter how you dress it up

It's no deal or no brexit, and polls show that more people want no deal than no brexit.

If we have a second vote, it will be no deal vs no brexit. The polls seem to indicate that given that choice, no deal would win.

 

[dingodan]

You also have to ask yourself, who was more likely to abstain from voting in an EU election?

People who want us to leave (and feel we should have left already)?

Or people who want us to remain.

The answer is easy. Factor those people into what this vote might say about how much support there would be for leaving if we voted on it again.

Leave won, and with votes far more likely to not include many more leavers than remainers.

 

[birthofanorange]

If, (as the Leave contingent seem so certain) the 'Will of the people' is still to Leave (via No Deal or however), surely they should be actively encouraging a second referendum, as it would finally prove their point.
I haven't a clue as to why they're not doing this.... *cough*

 

[nicko31]

It's no deal or no brexit, and polls show that more people want no deal than no brexit.

If we have a second vote, it will be no deal vs no brexit. The polls seem to indicate that given that choice, no deal would win.

Well if that is the case leavers have nothing to fear. If Britain voted for that we'd be deserving of it, but right now we don't as we didn't vote for it

The polls seem to indicate doesn't sound like a poll. Just you're interpretation of other polling data....

 

[pb21]

It's no deal or no brexit, and polls show that more people want no deal than no brexit.

If we have a second vote, it will be no deal vs no brexit. The polls seem to indicate that given that choice, no deal would win.

There may exist a theoretical mandate for no deal, but as things stand that is not democratically apparent, i.e. through an official poll/election.

No deal is a very specific type of Brexit, with an accepted (from all sides) economic cost, that the people have never shown to want, or be happy with, in a majority .

As things currently stand there is no realised democratic mandate for no deal.

People voted to leave the EU in 2016, as a concept, and then voted to leave the EU with a deal in 2017 (smooth/orderly/protecting jobs/protecting the environment etc.). That’s it.

 

[Two Professors]

Not long now till the Peterborough bye-election to replace that Labour crook.Should be interesting,and we will see if the Brexit Party results are duplicated in a Parliamentary election.

 

[Mellotron]

How can anyone be so obtuse, it's laughable. 2016 was a binary choice in or out, roll on 2019 and you ignore the ukip vote, conservative vote and doubtless some of the Labour vote to your calculations, and also some people voting for other reasons. If you don't mind me asking, how old are you?

Sorry, there's nothing obtuse about saying that the amount of people voting for Brexit unequivocally has declined massively in the last 3 years. I'm sorry about the facts, but that's what they are. Add in UKIP and Conservative. Makes **** all difference. The people do not want Brexit.

 

[Mellotron]

If I was a leaver I'd have taken May's deal and got out. Brexit won by a small margin and it marred with fraud with more under investigation. Quit while you're ahead..

Ultimately, their ideology could be their undoing and could end up with no Brexit at all.

Gove did say, vote for May's deal and have jam tomorrow.

100%. The funniest thing is that it's the Brexiteers that are totally ****ing up Brexit. It will be their fault if we don't Leave.

 

[dingodan]

Sorry, there's nothing obtuse about saying that the amount of people voting for Brexit unequivocally has declined massively in the last 3 years. I'm sorry about the facts, but that's what they are. Add in UKIP and Conservative. Makes **** all difference. The people do not want Brexit.

Really? You sure? or Wishful thinking?

------------------------------------------------------
There is, however, little empirical evidence of mass ‘Bregret’. Indeed, one of the most striking facts about British politics since the referendum is the reasonably consistent support for Leave and Remain.

While Remain has budged up slightly in the polls, the swing is relatively trivial and pales in comparison to other dramatic polling surges and falls we’ve seen in public opinion polling over the same period, including support for the political parties and party leadership, which have proven to be much more volatile. EU referendum vote choice stands out for its stability.

In December 2018, Benjamin Lauderdale conducted public opinion research for YouGov on Brexit opinions in each British constituency. While the headline result focused on support or opposition for Theresa May’s deal, what I found most interesting from this research was data on the proportion of Remain support in each constituency. In spite of 2.5 years of major changes in British politics, the constituency-level Remain results from the December 2018 poll were remarkably similar to the estimates of the June 2016 referendum.

To provide an illustration, I have compared the 2016 referendum vote to the reported Remain support in the December 2018 YouGov research in the ten most competitive seats between Labour and the Conservatives (Figure 3). I found that on average in these Conservative-held seats targeted by Labour, there has been a 2 percentage point swing to Leave, while in the five Labour-held seats, there has been on average no change at all. Expectations that Leavers’ regret will sweep Labour into power are poorly founded.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019...-through-leave-voting-conservative-marginals/

 

[Mellotron]

not sure why the votes for Conservative and Labour, on a leave manifesto, gets omitted from the count so lightly.

That'll the Labour Party which has confirmed this morning they are supporting a 2nd referendum? For anyone to suggest they were ever a "proper" Leave party is laughable. I don't think you even believe that if you're being honest with yourself.

 

[Publius Ovidius]

Isn’t the majority of the brexit party vote just people transferring their votes from UKIP to Brexit?

So basically we all knew if the UKIP vote was going to go somewhere it would go to the Brexit mob.

I don’t see any surprises in these elections.

 

[dingodan]

That'll the Labour Party which has confirmed this morning they are supporting a 2nd referendum? For anyone to suggest they were ever a "proper" Leave party is laughable. I don't think you even believe that if you're being honest with yourself.

Not laughable according to Labour voters.

An Ipsos Mori poll published last week found 46 per cent of Labour voters believe the party stands for leaving the EU, while 38 per cent said it was pro-remain. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8921901.html

 

[Mellotron]

Really? You sure? or Wishful thinking?

------------------------------------------------------
There is, however, little empirical evidence of mass ‘Bregret’. Indeed, one of the most striking facts about British politics since the referendum is the reasonably consistent support for Leave and Remain.

While Remain has budged up slightly in the polls, the swing is relatively trivial and pales in comparison to other dramatic polling surges and falls we’ve seen in public opinion polling over the same period, including support for the political parties and party leadership, which have proven to be much more volatile. EU referendum vote choice stands out for its stability.

In December 2018, Benjamin Lauderdale conducted public opinion research for YouGov on Brexit opinions in each British constituency. While the headline result focused on support or opposition for Theresa May’s deal, what I found most interesting from this research was data on the proportion of Remain support in each constituency. In spite of 2.5 years of major changes in British politics, the constituency-level Remain results from the December 2018 poll were remarkably similar to the estimates of the June 2016 referendum.

To provide an illustration, I have compared the 2016 referendum vote to the reported Remain support in the December 2018 YouGov research in the ten most competitive seats between Labour and the Conservatives (Figure 3). I found that on average in these Conservative-held seats targeted by Labour, there has been a 2 percentage point swing to Leave, while in the five Labour-held seats, there has been on average no change at all. Expectations that Leavers’ regret will sweep Labour into power are poorly founded.

Why have you brought up yet another bafflingly convoluted and irrelevant set of data to the point being made? I don't give a **** about whether Labour win power or not - you have chosen to focus on very specific seats that paint a totally different picture to the wider story (which is obviously the more important one).

I'll ask a simple, straight-forward question; if people want Brexit so much, why did 12million people not bother to vote for it this time round?

NB: Please try to respond to the question directly rather than finding a pie chart that explains how many badgers in Shoreham at 8.32pm on a Tuesday in Nov 2016 wanted Brexit and how that shows that all the country wants Brexit now.

 

[nicko31]

Not long now till the Peterborough bye-election to replace that Labour crook.Should be interesting,and we will see if the Brexit Party results are duplicated in a Parliamentary election.

View attachment 110332

CPFC's most famous son would be wishing he'd stepped back from the Euro elections...