Clubs on the BRINK?

[El Presidente]

The eye of the storm is the one place the tempest is calm.

But even though Lord Mawhinney believes the Football League over which he presides will survive the greatest economic threat the game has known, he admits the worst is yet to come.

The apocalyptic warnings of wholesale redundancies and clubs going out of business are the sort of doom-laden forecasts he has heard ever since taking the job when the League was still reeling from the ITV Digital disaster.

Yet while Mawhinney is confident there will still be 72 League clubs when the economic chaos eventually subsides, he does not try to pretend there may not be casualties on the way. I'm not sure everybody really has a sense of how bad things are and how hard they're going to get," he admitted.

"I've said to all the owners and shareholders that they've been protected from the worst of what's going on. They sold this season's tickets and executive boxes in the commercial market 12 months ago.

"But the world has changed hugely since then and it's over the next three months they will discover how much it's changed. What has happened so far is only the tip of the iceberg. I have told the clubs that I believe life will be extremely tough through to the end of the 2011-2012 season.

The Ulsterman added: "What I would say to every club is simple. If your attitude is that it can't happen to you, then you do not have a realistic business plan. This is the time to batten down the hatches. Directors must have realistic business plans.

"They have to control all their costs and of course wages are the single biggest outlay for most clubs.

"I've been exploring with owners and shareholders if they'd like to put in place some sort of limit on wages but different clubs take a different attitude. It's a dog eat dog world."

Financially, Mawhinney and his board have done plenty, increasing sponsorship deals for the Carling Cup and the Johnstone's Paint Trophy while the new BBC/BSkyB deal from next season will see more than a doubling of revenues to £88million per season.

That will work out at around £2.9m for each club in the Championship, £440,000 for League One sides and £300,000 for the teams in the bottom tier.

But Mawhinney admits the time for harsh decisions for football is here. He said: "Clubs are already under pressure so they have to think deeply about ticket prices.

EIGHT CLUBS IN TROUBLE

CHARLTON
Seemingly they are doomed to League One and with debts of around £21million.

SOUTHAMPTON
Under a cloud. A 10-point penalty now would kill off any chance of beating the drop.

STOCKPORT
Chief executive Sean Connelly last week placed an embargo on a statement about the club's plight.

CHELTENHAM
Manager Martin Allen has been told all his playing squad are effectively for sale now.

BOURNEMOUTH
A new consortium is attempting to take over.Players have only had 40 per cent of last month's wages.

LEEDS
Universally scorned, hated and reviled, for their sneering arrogance and have a twat for a chairman who is the personification of evil.

DARLINGTON
Already in administration over debts of £6m but need to average gates of 6,000 to break even.

CHESTER CITY
Look to be safer now with Liverpool-based property developer in the process of a buy-out.

 

[Pavilionaire]

It makes you wonder what might happen if the League lost several clubs. Would they promote clubs from the Blue Square Premier League and, if so, could this mean league football for Crawley? The requisite number of fixtures would have to be fulfilled, after all.

 

[Tooting Gull]

Barry Hearn has just been on talkSPORT talking about this.

He reckons there are 12 clubs in Leagues One and Two currently mulling over whether to go into administration, all taking league tables into account for the 10-point deduction. And he reckoned the next 12 months were going to see some casualties.

An Orient fan emailed in asking if he was going to invest in the team to try and get to the Championship. He just said no flat out, that Orient were lucky to be in business, they were one of those not at risk of administration, and that fans should 'get real', enjoy the day out going to watch their team in League One, and be glad they were in existence and not in financial trouble.

Then he gave this analogy:

"Orient fans are always asking me if I'm going to buy this player or that player to boost the squad.

"I say 'would you like to own a Ferrari'? Then, when they say yes, I say 'well why haven't you got one then'?

"They say 'because I can't afford one'. And I say 'exactly'."

 

[Icy Gull]

Barry Hearn has just been on talkSPORT talking about this.

He reckons there are 12 clubs in Leagues One and Two currently mulling over whether to go into administration, all taking league tables into account for the 10-point deduction. And he reckoned the next 12 months were going to see some casualties.

An Orient fan emailed in asking if he was going to invest in the team to try and get to the Championship. He just said no flat out, that Orient were lucky to be in business, they were one of those not at risk of administration, and that fans should 'get real', enjoy the day out going to watch their team in League One, and be glad they were in existence and not in financial trouble.

Then he gave this analogy:

"Orient fans are always asking me if I'm going to buy this player or that player to boost the squad.

"I say 'would you like to own a Ferrari'? Then, when they say yes, I say 'well why haven't you got one then'?

"They say 'because I can't afford one'. And I say 'exactly'."

Hard to argue with that, which is a shame as I f***ing hate Barry Hearn for suggesting we should get chucked out of the league because of our fans action in trying to save their club and the anger/pitch incursions that came from it

 

[readingstockport]

Barry Hearn has just been on talkSPORT talking about this.

He reckons there are 12 clubs in Leagues One and Two currently mulling over whether to go into administration, all taking league tables into account for the 10-point deduction.

That's not the case with Stockport. With County it's a case of whether a buyer/investor can be found and an agreement come to with HMRC over a debt caused by the MD unilaterally deciding not to follow the budget strategy. He decided, against instructions from the trust board, that instead of using tranfer income to pay a debt to HMRC he would instead buy new players, without telling the owners. If administration can be avoided it will be, if not then I expect it to be entered in the next 48 hours.

 

[Alex Alex Dawson oo! oo!]

The Albion's situation doesn't make pretty reading either.

BRIGHTON
Likely relegation to League Two, average gate around 6,000 but unable to break even if ground is full (8,800). Currently losing £2million+ per year with total debts in excess of £11million.

 

[Stoo82]

The Albion's situation doesn't make pretty reading either.

BRIGHTON
Likely relegation to League Two, average gate around 6,000 but unable to break even if ground is full (8,800). Currently losing £2million+ per year with total debts in excess of £11million.

f***ing Dick Tight. WHy does he not spend this money we are making.

 

[RexCathedra]

...average gate around 6,000 but unable to break even if ground is full (8,800).

A ROI like that is why there's this queue of investors who would just kill for a chance to pour their dosh into the club if Dick Knight would just step down....

 

[pork pie]

...average gate around 6,000 but unable to break even if ground is full (8,800).

A ROI like that is why there's this queue of investors who would just kill for a chance to pour their dosh into the club if Dick Knight would just step down....

Average gates of less than 5000 next year in Leage 2, the way things are looking!

Just who's fault is it that the crowds are so low? Oh yes, the guy who refused to invest in decent players when we were in the Championship or even sitting pretty in Leauge 1. Yes, there looks to be money being thrown at a problem now, but thoughts of "horse" stable" "door" "shutting" and "bolted" spring to mind. And where is it said that the Club would be unable to break even with a full house every week?

 

[Icy Gull]

Average gates of less than 5000 next year in Leage 2, the way things are looking!

.

We'll be lucky to get 5,000 unless we are in a promotion chasing place imo. Anything less than top 6 and entertaining with it and I can see crowds regularly below 4k coupled with probably a halving of season ticket sales, at best.

Get it right, play attractive football and be up the top and we'll regularly fill Withdean imo. The word fickle could have been invented to describe Brighton fans.

 

[Nottseagull]

[A ROI like that ...

Republic of Ireland, Rate of Interest, Raj of India ......oh go on, enlighten us!

 

[El Presidente]

Average gates of less than 5000 next year in Leage 2, the way things are looking!

Just who's fault is it that the crowds are so low? Oh yes, the guy who refused to invest in decent players when we were in the Championship or even sitting pretty in Leauge 1. Yes, there looks to be money being thrown at a problem now, but thoughts of "horse" stable" "door" "shutting" and "bolted" spring to mind. And where is it said that the Club would be unable to break even with a full house every week?

There is a hell of a difference between the average wage in the Championship (£5,000 a week), and League 1 (£1,200) a week.

Given that the club are losing about £2million a year, then do the maths. An extra 2,500 x 23 x £12 (which is what the club are likely to get after deducting VAT, travel voucher, season ticket discount and a split between adults, OAPS and kids) brings in £690,000.

 

[pork pie]

We'll be lucky to get 5,000 unless we are in a promotion chasing place imo. Anything less than top 6 and entertaining with it and I can see crowds regularly below 4k coupled with probably a halving of season ticket sales, at best.

Get it right, play attractive football and be up the top and we'll regularly fill Withdean imo. The word fickle could have been invented to describe Brighton fans.

Long suffering fans in my opionion rather than fickle. Who wants to see poor football in the rain at rip-off prices? When the team is doing well it is harder to stay away!

 

[Tom Bombadil]

Republic of Ireland, Rate of Interest, Raj of India ......oh go on, enlighten us!

Return on Investment

 

[pork pie]

There is a hell of a difference between the average wage in the Championship (£5,000 a week), and League 1 (£1,200) a week.

Given that the club are losing about £2million a year, then do the maths. An extra 2,500 x 23 x £12 (which is what the club are likely to get after deducting VAT, travel voucher, season ticket discount and a split between adults, OAPS and kids) brings in £690,000.

The Clubs Accounts show that in the 2004/5 season, when we actually managed to stay-up in the Championship, they "only" lost £976,000 on operations. Some of that could even have been Falmer costs?

 

[El Presidente]

The Clubs Accounts show that in the 2004/5 season, when we actually managed to stay-up in the Championship, they "only" lost £976,000 on operations. Some of that could even have been Falmer costs?

But we also sold Virgo for £1.5million profit.

 

[cjd]

There is a hell of a difference between the average wage in the Championship (£5,000 a week), and League 1 (£1,200) a week.

Given that the club are losing about £2million a year, then do the maths. An extra 2,500 x 23 x £12 (which is what the club are likely to get after deducting VAT, travel voucher, season ticket discount and a split between adults, OAPS and kids) brings in £690,000.

hmmmmmmmmmmm.............interesting figures, but to give a slightly more balanced view....TV income if in Championship, £2,900,000....TV income in league 2, £300,000.

However, of more concern if your figures are correct, is how are we going to be able to afford Falmer...?

Projected increase in income (based on your figures)..;

Additional 6000 spectators (present 6,000...12,0000 needed to break even)
6,000 x 23 x £12 brings in £1,656,000.

Estimated £30,000,000 loan at 10% p.a. (including captal repayment) will cost £3,000,000.

Apparently the annual loss (according to you) is £2,000,000 already. An additional £1,344,000 (£3,000,000 less £1,656,000) loss doesn,t seem that good a business plan to put before the bankers.

 

[king Wombat]

the current loss is because we don't own withdean, we don't get anywhere near all the revenue from additional sales.

so er can you redo your figures.


Pork pie - seeing as you only want to support a team that is doing well, why don't you pop back in 5 years and see how we're doing. In the meantime, man utd, or liverpool should allow you to 'enjoy' your football.

 

[cjd]

the current loss is because we don't own withdean, we don't get anywhere near all the revenue from additional sales.

so er can you redo your figures.


Pork pie - seeing as you only want to support a team that is doing well, why don't you pop back in 5 years and see how we're doing. In the meantime, man utd, or liverpool should allow you to 'enjoy' your football.

Does Withdean (rent etc) really cost £2,000,000 per year....?

Additional sales at Withdean.......? Do you mean the hot-dog vans...?

Merchandise sales are from the Seagull shop, so cannot see that we don't keep all our revenue from them.

"so er can you" supply the figures ?.........would be of interest.

 

[El Presidente]

"so er can you" supply the figures ?.........would be of interest.

I've done a number of sets of figures, based on varying loans, interest rates, and attendances.............and we're f***ed at Falmer IMO!