[Politics] Brexit

[Westdene Seagull]

It is £4,300 and its an average, some will be even worse off. And we are part of a global economy, we will be sropping down the ranks, our ability to buy foreign goods (and we do lots of that now) and go on foreign holidays will become more expensive

You failed to answer me last time so I'll ask again - does your household have an income of £78k ? That's what that £4,300 figure is based on and even then the maths was corrupted by using the GDP in 2030 but number of households NOW ( rather then 2030 ). Keep quoting that figure but has been proven as false by so many people and bodies now you'll just look stupid.

 

[Steve in Japan]

The Guardian is a good read today. In an effort to up the levels of Bremain eccentricity, we have contributions from none other than Delia Smith (yes, lets be 'avin you) and Yanis Varoufakis (yup, the Greek finance bloke who I thought wouldn't p1ss on the EU if it were on fire). Rum. Very rum. And we've got weeks to go still.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Because it's their job! You can't manage an economy and plan if you have no idea what at the future holds. Any government, just as you would with your household budget, need to plan for the future and that includes trying to forecast growth etc.

I struggle to see why so many people think this odd?

Quite. As an aside I find it amusing that certain types keep reminding us that forecasts are not fact.....as if we didn't know.

 

[Beach Hut]

Just done my postal vote, a big fat in from me

 

[brighton fella]

Because it's their job! You can't manage an economy and plan if you have no idea what at the future holds. Any government, just as you would with your household budget, need to plan for the future and that includes trying to forecast growth etc.

I struggle to see why so many people think this odd?

In the same way you can not plan a future without knowing how many migrants/immigrants will turn up each year and settle in Britain for our health service's and schools etc to be able to cater for..
if their job is to plan for the future then it would be a far wiser move to start here don't you think ?
.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Because it's their job! You can't manage an economy and plan if you have no idea what at the future holds. Any government, just as you would with your household budget, need to plan for the future and that includes trying to forecast growth etc.

I struggle to see why so many people think this odd?

I thought gorgeous George stopped the Treasury forecasting because it was so inaccurate and open to political manipulation... hence the need for the OBR. I can see why he did!

 

[portslade seagull]

400bn cost to pensions if we stay in th EU, Cameron states Immigration is a price we have to pay to stay in th EU and Cameron also states UK will thrive IF we leave the EU. Oh dear this all from the leader of the Remain camp. What an endorsement !!

 

[Hampster Gull]

You failed to answer me last time so I'll ask again - does your household have an income of £78k ? That's what that £4,300 figure is based on and even then the maths was corrupted by using the GDP in 2030 but number of households NOW ( rather then 2030 ). Keep quoting that figure but has been proven as false by so many people and bodies now you'll just look stupid.

Its a forecast from HM Treasury. As ever with any forecast there will be a range of outcomes around the specific number so i would treat this as illustrative of what could happen

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

He got a majority of the MEP's vote. That surely is democracy, especially when the 422 that voted for him were elected on the same system as the Tory and UKIP MEPs!

It's not democratic to the British people and that's the problem.

Why should Parties such as Golden Dawn, The Communist Party of Bohemia or The Spanish Socialist Workers Party have a say in electing someone that has such power and authority over The UK - it's just not fair.

 

[pastafarian]

Because it's their job! You can't manage an economy and plan if you have no idea what at the future holds. Any government, just as you would with your household budget, need to plan for the future and that includes trying to forecast growth etc.

I struggle to see why so many people think this odd?

Quite. As an aside I find it amusing that certain types keep reminding us that forecasts are not fact.....as if we didn't know.

I would like to see the equivalent UK economic forecasts for 2030 from the same people such as IMF and treasury,when its just normal run of the mill carry on as we are with a remain.
Ive asked FT man 5ways a couple of times but as yet not forthcoming,can either of you two post the links on here?
would be interesting to compare their remain and brexit forecasts for 2030

 

[5ways]

I would like to see the equivalent UK economic forecasts for 2030 from the same people such as IMF and treasury,when its just normal run of the mill carry on as we are with a remain.
Ive asked FT man 5ways a couple of times but as yet not forthcoming,can either of you two post the links on here?
would be interesting to compare their remain and brexit forecasts for 2030

HM Treasury’s analysis has considered the three existing alternatives:

membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), like Norway
a negotiated bilateral agreement, such as that between the EU and Switzerland, Turkey or Canada
World Trade Organization (WTO) membership without any form of specific agreement with the EU - like Russia or Brazil
The central estimates – defined as the middle point between both ends of the range – for the annual loss of GDP per household under the three alternatives after 15 years are:

£2,600 in the case of membership of the European Economic area, like Norway
£4,300 in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement like Switzerland, Turkey or Canada
£5,200 in the case of membership of the World Trade Organisation (like Russia or Brazil)



2. The analysis also finds that the negative impact on the economy (GDP) would result in a total reduction in tax receipts of £36 billion, equivalent to around an 8p increase in the basic rate of income tax
The analysis also finds that the negative impact on the economy would result in substantially weaker tax receipts.

This would significantly outweigh any potential gain if we were to make lower financial contribution to the EU - which are a little over 1p for every £1 of tax paid once the UK’s rebates and receipts are taken into account.

HM Treasury estimates that the total reduction in tax receipts under each scenario would be as follows:

£20 billion in the case of European Economic Area membership, like Norway
£36 billion in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement, like Switzerland, Turkey or Canada
£45 billion in the case of World Trade Organisation membership, like Russia or Brazil
A reduction of £36 billion in tax receipts would result in higher government borrowing, large tax rises or major cuts in public spending.

For example, it would be equivalent to more than a third of the NHS England budget, or to raising the basic rate of income tax by around 8p from 20p to 28p.


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/eu-referendum-treasury-analysis-key-facts


The U.K. economy could be as much as 3.2% smaller by 2030 if it left the European Union than if it remained a member, one of Britain’s most prominent think tanks said Tuesday.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research, a nonpartisan think tank based in London, said in a report the U.K. could be 3.2% smaller by 2030 if it left the EU and traded with the rest of the world under World Trade Organization rules.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-...-2-smaller-by-2030-says-think-tank-1462876109

 

[pastafarian]

HM Treasury’s analysis has considered the three existing alternatives:

membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), like Norway
a negotiated bilateral agreement, such as that between the EU and Switzerland, Turkey or Canada
World Trade Organization (WTO) membership without any form of specific agreement with the EU - like Russia or Brazil
The central estimates – defined as the middle point between both ends of the range – for the annual loss of GDP per household under the three alternatives after 15 years are:

£2,600 in the case of membership of the European Economic area, like Norway
£4,300 in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement like Switzerland, Turkey or Canada
£5,200 in the case of membership of the World Trade Organisation (like Russia or Brazil)



2. The analysis also finds that the negative impact on the economy (GDP) would result in a total reduction in tax receipts of £36 billion, equivalent to around an 8p increase in the basic rate of income tax
The analysis also finds that the negative impact on the economy would result in substantially weaker tax receipts.

This would significantly outweigh any potential gain if we were to make lower financial contribution to the EU - which are a little over 1p for every £1 of tax paid once the UK’s rebates and receipts are taken into account.

HM Treasury estimates that the total reduction in tax receipts under each scenario would be as follows:

£20 billion in the case of European Economic Area membership, like Norway
£36 billion in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement, like Switzerland, Turkey or Canada
£45 billion in the case of World Trade Organisation membership, like Russia or Brazil
A reduction of £36 billion in tax receipts would result in higher government borrowing, large tax rises or major cuts in public spending.

For example, it would be equivalent to more than a third of the NHS England budget, or to raising the basic rate of income tax by around 8p from 20p to 28p.


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/eu-referendum-treasury-analysis-key-facts


The U.K. economy could be as much as 3.2% smaller by 2030 if it left the European Union than if it remained a member, one of Britain’s most prominent think tanks said Tuesday.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research, a nonpartisan think tank based in London, said in a report the U.K. could be 3.2% smaller by 2030 if it left the EU and traded with the rest of the world under World Trade Organization rules.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-...-2-smaller-by-2030-says-think-tank-1462876109

um .........thats 3 different brexit scenarios
i was after a normal run of the mill treasury forecast for 2030,no referendum scenario just the long term normal forecast

 

[Hampster Gull]

HM Treasury’s analysis has considered the three existing alternatives:

membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), like Norway
a negotiated bilateral agreement, such as that between the EU and Switzerland, Turkey or Canada
World Trade Organization (WTO) membership without any form of specific agreement with the EU - like Russia or Brazil
The central estimates – defined as the middle point between both ends of the range – for the annual loss of GDP per household under the three alternatives after 15 years are:

£2,600 in the case of membership of the European Economic area, like Norway
£4,300 in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement like Switzerland, Turkey or Canada
£5,200 in the case of membership of the World Trade Organisation (like Russia or Brazil)



2. The analysis also finds that the negative impact on the economy (GDP) would result in a total reduction in tax receipts of £36 billion, equivalent to around an 8p increase in the basic rate of income tax
The analysis also finds that the negative impact on the economy would result in substantially weaker tax receipts.

This would significantly outweigh any potential gain if we were to make lower financial contribution to the EU - which are a little over 1p for every £1 of tax paid once the UK’s rebates and receipts are taken into account.

HM Treasury estimates that the total reduction in tax receipts under each scenario would be as follows:

£20 billion in the case of European Economic Area membership, like Norway
£36 billion in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement, like Switzerland, Turkey or Canada
£45 billion in the case of World Trade Organisation membership, like Russia or Brazil
A reduction of £36 billion in tax receipts would result in higher government borrowing, large tax rises or major cuts in public spending.

For example, it would be equivalent to more than a third of the NHS England budget, or to raising the basic rate of income tax by around 8p from 20p to 28p.


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/eu-referendum-treasury-analysis-key-facts


The U.K. economy could be as much as 3.2% smaller by 2030 if it left the European Union than if it remained a member, one of Britain’s most prominent think tanks said Tuesday.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research, a nonpartisan think tank based in London, said in a report the U.K. could be 3.2% smaller by 2030 if it left the EU and traded with the rest of the world under World Trade Organization rules.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-...-2-smaller-by-2030-says-think-tank-1462876109

Good post

 

[drew]

It's not democratic to the British people and that's the problem.

Why should Parties such as Golden Dawn, The Communist Party of Bohemia or The Spanish Socialist Workers Party have a say in electing someone that has such power and authority over The UK - it's just not fair.

Another who is of the 'if I don't get my way it's not democratic' camp.

 

[pastafarian]

Good post

only if you think asking for a pizza but getting a herring to be good as well

 

[Hampster Gull]

only if you think asking for a pizza but getting a herring to be good as well

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Another who is of the 'if I don't get my way it's not democratic' camp.

You haven't answered my question.

Let me put it like this:

If Jeremy Corbyn was elected by the British people to govern that is their decision and I would respect it even though I disagree with a wide variety of his policies.

Please tell me how it is fair, democratic or accountable to The British People - and that's who matters as we are citizens of The United Kingdom for Golden Dawn, the Communist Party of Bohemia, the Spanish Socialist party, or the FN to decide who governs Britain to an ever increasing extent.

I would be up in arms about it even if I had anyone I agreed with it in charge - the system is undemocratic to nation-states.

I will spell out the question clearly one more time:

Do you think it is representative, just, fair and democratic that far right thugs such as Golden Dawn, The Front National or Jobbik (Hungarians who are trying to ban the promotion of homosexuality) have a say and vote over who exercises power over the citizens of The United Kingdom?

 

[portslade seagull]

It wasn't plucked out of the sky, it was a forecast (not the worst one though) but it has been repeatedly misinterpreted, no thanks to Gideon!! The figure, as I'm sure you already know, is the estimated shortfall in growth of GDP given as an average per household, should we leave the EU. It is not saying every household will be £4,300 worse off then they are now.

So why do they keep saying it affects every household when quite blatantly it won't. I think the hit on people's pensions is more to worry about if we stay in

 

[5ways]

um .........thats 3 different brexit scenarios
i was after a normal run of the mill treasury forecast for 2030,no referendum scenario just the long term normal forecast

Here is another herring.

Isn't a forecast for 2030 absurd, since economic forecasts for even two years ahead fail?

This is to misunderstand the exercise the Treasury has carried out. As stated, the Treasury is estimating the difference between two possible futures on the basis of a decision regarding Britain’s trading relationship. That does not require accurate forecasts, just a good understanding of the effect of trade on prosperity.

It is the same as saying, “We do not know how heavy you will be in 15 years, but if you drink a bottle of cola a day, we are pretty sure you will be fatter than if you keep off the sugar.”

Alternatively: “We do not know when you will die, but are pretty sure it will be earlier if you maintain your 20-a-day cigarette habit.”

https://next.ft.com/content/c15cd060-0550-11e6-96e5-f85cb08b0730

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

um .........thats 3 different brexit scenarios
i was after a normal run of the mill treasury forecast for 2030,no referendum scenario just the long term normal forecast

Get on the Google machine. If it's available you'll find it. Although as already has been pointed out a 15 year prediction is a bit ambitious/absurd and would include numerous caveats as so much can change in this amount of time.