[Brighton] XPG - A Fourth Place Finish

[BadFish]

https://experimental361.com/2021/05/24/expected-goals-table-premier-league-2020-21/


Not sure if we should laugh or cry about this.

Certainly shows we are doing a lot right though.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Open top bus tour?

 

[Sarisbury Seagull]

I know a lot of people don't take xg seriously but that is quite something and shows just how impressive our build up play is.

 

[blue-shifted]

It should be a source of pride.

Probably worth sticking on a few Leeds and Palace sites

OK it demonstrates our travails in front of goal ... but that's common knowledge anyway

 

[BadFish]

Open top bus tour?

Just an expected one . . . don't need to realise it.

 

[Bakero]

Do we have to play a qualifier or are we straight into the group stage of the xPts Champions League?

 

[Taybha]

Open top bus tour?

It'll miss the players stop .

 

[Jesus Gul]

Can you bet on xG yet?

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Although its good to see on paper. Everyone that have watched Potterball, will understand that we are a goodside and try to do the right things.

What more could a small club like the Albion Xpect.

Keep the faith, and dry sheets for next season.

 

[Arthur]

Just goes to show you what a load of bollocks xG actually is.

 

[jakarta]

A spotty 16 year olds website says we should be in Europe. Forgive me if I don't dig out my Passport...

 

[Icy Gull]

Just goes to show you what a load of bollocks xG actually is.

Yep, it’s a great “What If” that is just annoying. It’s also annoying watching it unfold in reality, we don’t need bloody tables about it to rub it in

 

[Uh_huh_him]

It's all well and good missing Xg by a mile, when you are paying the medium bucks for your strikers.
but when you're forking out top dollar, you should be expected to exceed Xg, surely?

Man Utd seem to be getting value from their players (and refs)
Chelsea and Liverpool , much less so.

 

[beefypigeon]

Interesting to see the impact that a top-quality striker can make. Spurs, Utd, and Everton all clinical by the looks of it, and seemingly an exit/injury or two away from finishing far lower in the table. Ourselves and Chelsea significantly under-performing. I truly believe we're a quality striker away from being a very good side in the top half of the table.

 

[Terry Butcher Tribute Act]

Understat have us 5th so it shows how xG is not a consistent metric (let alone xP).

Worth noting that our expected points last season (19/20) was 48 (rather than the 41 we got). It didn't turn out to be an indicator that we'd improve the following season

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[Guinness Boy]

Just goes to show you what a load of bollocks xG actually is.

This.

Finishing is fairly much the critical part of the game isn't it? I mean, I cook a decent steak but it's like me claiming I could own a Michelin starred joint if only I could plate 8 of them up at a time in an artistic and fashionable manner.

 

[Artie Fufkin]

But you could argue that all stats apart from the final scoreline is a load of bollocks.

Which I suppose is true in some respect. Doesn't matter if you have 10 shots on goal and your opponent has 1, if you lose 1-0 that's the only stat that matters.

Either way, xG is one of the most significant stats these days imo. It shows which decent teams should be doing better if only they could bloody take their chances, or which shitty teams are punching above their weight because they do take theirs.

Someone posted this video a while back which I found interesting. I think the underlying performance indicators such as our GD were a clear indicator that we were performing much better than our points tally suggested and we spent the majority of the season in a "false" position in the league table. Does the table lie? Maybe it does...

If our levels of performance remained consistent over a larger sample size (another 38 games for example) I think the predicted forecast would be very positive.

"All goals are important but not all goals are equally important."

I think this guy is now the Director of Football at Brentford with Tony's nemesis Matthew Benham.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sy2vc9lW5r0

 

[Audax]

Just goes to show you what a load of bollocks xG actually is.

Wrong.

The xG table is putting 7 out of the 20 teams in exactly the right position. A further 8 within +/- 2 places of the correct position. As an "after the fact" prediction tool, that's actually pretty good. You've then got 5 teams who diverge a bit further. 2 of them are only 3 places incorrect (Everton, Palace), but in both cases it's looking like the divergence is a product of fine margins in a handful of games. Palace ... just got to look at the robbery they pulled off against us, for a prime example.

So: three teams then that are genuinely sticking out as outliers. Tottenham (explained by how clinical Kane and Son were early season. Once those 2 came off the boil a bit, they began sliding out of CL contention). Man U (are they in for a difficult season ahead?). And Brighton. We all know why.

Professional gamblers will be looking at this (along with other stats and key signings over the summer). It'll be affecting their pre-season bets. I think, pre-season, if we can keep Potter, reinforce in attack, and keep most of our key players, you'll see plenty of other teams being more favoured for the drop than us. I certainly don't see us pushing for Europe places next season, but a solid mid-table finish is within reach. You'll also likely see Man U behind a few other teams in the betting for Champions despite their solid 2nd this season.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Understat have us 5th so it shows how xG is not a consistent metric (let alone xP).

Worth noting that our expected points last season (19/20) was 48 (rather than the 41 we got). It didn't turn out to be an indicator that we'd improve the following season

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

Burnley get relegated every year under xG. Hasn't made much difference so far.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Wrong.

The xG table is putting 7 out of the 20 teams in exactly the right position. A further 8 within +/- 2 places of the correct position. As an "after the fact" prediction tool, that's actually pretty good. You've then got 5 teams who diverge a bit further. 2 of them are only 3 places incorrect (Everton, Palace), but in both cases it's looking like the divergence is a product of fine margins in a handful of games. Palace ... just got to look at the robbery they pulled off against us, for a prime example.

So: three teams then that are genuinely sticking out as outliers. Tottenham (explained by how clinical Kane and Son were early season. Once those 2 came off the boil a bit, they began sliding out of CL contention). Man U (are they in for a difficult season ahead?). And Brighton. We all know why.

Professional gamblers will be looking at this (along with other stats and key signings over the summer). It'll be affecting their pre-season bets. I think, pre-season, if we can keep Potter, reinforce in attack, and keep most of our key players, you'll see plenty of other teams being more favoured for the drop than us. I certainly don't see us pushing for Europe places next season, but a solid mid-table finish is within reach. You'll also likely see Man U behind a few other teams in the betting for Champions despite their solid 2nd this season.

Another way of looking at that is it's got 13 teams in the wrong position over a 38 game season.

At least part of that is due to the use of decimals and rounding. For example a game with an xG of 0.79 versus a 1.12 should really end up as a 1-1 draw if you believe in rounding. Multiply both scores by 38 and the away team will finish higher in the "table".