[Football] World Cup 2022 playoff

[Iggle Piggle]

2 of the Europe spots to be decided tonight.

Portugal v North Macedonia (lightning won't strike twice) and Sweden v Poland. Sweden and Poland are usually 2 of the dullest teams at any given World Cup so at least only 1 of them can go through.

 

[Durlston]

2 of the Europe spots to be decided tonight.

Portugal v North Macedonia (lightning won't strike twice) and Sweden v Poland. Sweden and Poland are usually 2 of the dullest teams at any given World Cup so at least only 1 of them can go through.

Poland have Robert Lewandowski and Krstòf Piàtek up front then there's our club representative in Jakub Moder. Physically it's going to be very tough for the Swedes after playing for over two hours last Thursday then travelling. Poland played a friendly as a warm up for this play-off final.

The Poles were the biggest disappointment last summer at the Euros in terms of being a dark horse. They'd reached the quarter-finals of the previous one - only losing on penalties.

I'm not so sure that North Macedonia should be written off so easily. They work so hard as a team but Portugal will be very respectful of them. 2-1 to Portugal.

 

[Swansman]

Central midfield will probably determine the Poland - Sweden game as both teams have a good set of attackers so whoever can feed their strikers the most should have a good chance of winning.

I think Sweden has 8 straight wins vs Poland so generally speaking it has been a good matchup.

I say Zlatan comes on as a sub and takes Sweden to the World Cup. I really hope so at least, would be fantastic to see the old man in one final international championship.

Poland have Robert Lewandowski and Krstòf Piàtek up front then there's our club representative in Jakub Moder. Physically it's going to be very tough for the Swedes after playing for over two hours last Thursday then travelling. Poland played a friendly as a warm up for this play-off final.

The Poles were the biggest disappointment last summer at the Euros in terms of being a dark horse. They'd reached the quarter-finals of the previous one - only losing on penalties.

I'm not so sure that North Macedonia should be written off so easily. They work so hard as a team but Portugal will be very respectful of them. 2-1 to Portugal.

Last Thursday is a good while ago and I'm not sure the 1 hour flight is a massive issue either. The 3.30 odds on Sweden is among the best you'll find today.

 

[Mellotron]

Crikey, only just found out about Italy, missing two WC’s in a row.

I thought Mancini was meant to be a genius by outwitting Southgate last summer?

Having that amazing CM trio of a Brazilian and Italians, a class above our workmanlike CM’ers, was the real key, imho.

The real key to it going to penalties and Italy having to rely on Rashford hitting the post rather than a few inches to the right.

Hilarious how many made out that Italy “schooled” us in the final. They really didn’t. It was an incredibly tight and nervy game that came down to the smallest of small margins.

 

[Weststander]

The real key to it going to penalties and Italy having to rely on Rashford hitting the post rather than a few inches to the right.

Hilarious how many made out that Italy “schooled” us in the final. They really didn’t. It was an incredibly tight and nervy game that came down to the smallest of small margins.

My view is a variation of that:

- Italy failed to beat us in play.
- We had a fantastic first half, by the far the best team.
- But from the second half onwards their CM trio outclassed us, running the game, all three including the Brazilian were Pirlo-esque. Painful to watch.

 

[Durlston]

They are now through.

I doubt you'll get 400/1 anymore but they look no worse than many mid-ranking European teams who will be about 50/1. They looked excellent at times and really should have won far more comfortably.

Japan are close to 400/1 because they couldn't beat Vietnam at home this lunchtime. Yes, they'd already qualified but that's a bit of a shocker and busted some early acca's I imagine, even if they were only 1/8. They might get through their group stage but the last 16 is their limit - being kind.

That's like England failing to beat Lithuania at Wembley in a World Cup European qualifier. Imagine the pundits and tabloid backlash.

 

[Simster]

Japan are close to 400/1 because they couldn't beat Vietnam at home this lunchtime. Yes, they'd already qualified but that's a bit of a shocker and busted some early acca's I imagine, even if they were only 1/8. They might get through their group stage but the last 16 is their limit - being kind.

That's like England failing to beat Lithuania at Wembley in a World Cup European qualifier. Imagine the pundits and tabloid backlash.

Freak results happen. Italy were 1/5 to beat North Macedonia last week and Italy are European Champions. Man City were 1/16 to beat Sporting Lisbon at home 3 weeks ago. That doesn't mean City won't feature in the Champions League shake up. France drew 0-0 at home to Luxembourg in qualifying for the World Cup which they went on to win, and they weren't priced anything like 400/1 to do so. Anyone putting a 1/8 outcome on an acca is a mug, especially when the short priced team has absolutely nothing to play for.

 

[Easy 10]

The real key to it going to penalties and Italy having to rely on Rashford hitting the post rather than a few inches to the right.

Hilarious how many made out that Italy “schooled” us in the final. They really didn’t. It was an incredibly tight and nervy game that came down to the smallest of small margins.

And some good old-fashioned CHEATING

 

[Jeremiah]

My view is a variation of that:

- Italy failed to beat us in play. - agree , that is a fact
- We had a fantastic first half, by the far the best team. I'd say first 20 minutes
- But from the second half onwards their CM trio outclassed us, running the game, all three including the Brazilian were Pirlo-esque. Painful to watch - agree but only because we decided to try and defend a goal lead from half time , we woke up in last period of extra time..

 

[Swansman]

Freak results happen. Italy were 1/5 to beat North Macedonia last week and Italy are European Champions. Man City were 1/16 to beat Sporting Lisbon at home 3 weeks ago. That doesn't mean City won't feature in the Champions League shake up. France drew 0-0 at home to Luxembourg in qualifying for the World Cup which they went on to win, and they weren't priced anything like 400/1 to do so. Anyone putting a 1/8 outcome on an acca is a mug, especially when the short priced team has absolutely nothing to play for.

Yes but they very rarely happen enough times to win a tournament. The occasional freak result is one thing, repeatng it over and over in a short time span is a different thing. Japan has a decent team, the best they've had in a long time and with a good chance to improve over the next years but they are not going to win the World Cup. Qualifying from the group stage would be a great result for them.

Agree about the acca thing today, though "nothing to play for" had little to do with it... they worked their arses off (they're Japanese, there's no slacking) and should have won but that is always easier said than done. My half time bet on Japan to reach 5 corners first was free money though.

 

[MJsGhost]

Anyone putting a 1/8 outcome on an acca is a mug, especially when the short priced team has absolutely nothing to play for.

Absolutely this.

If I have the time to research bets properly, I often look for very short-priced teams (between 1/6 and 1/9) with nothing to play for and then back their opponent & the draw in a double chance bet (usually somewhere between 3/1 & 9/2).

 

[Easy 10]

Yes but they very rarely happen enough times to win a tournament. The occasional freak result is one thing, repeatng it over and over in a short time span is a different thing. Japan has a decent team, the best they've had in a long time and with a good chance to improve over the next years but they are not going to win the World Cup. Qualifying from the group stage would be a great result for them.

Agree about the acca thing today, though "nothing to play for" had little to do with it... they worked their arses off (they're Japanese, there's no slacking) and should have won but that is always easier said than done. My half time bet on Japan to reach 5 corners first was free money though.

That revives a painful memory from a betbuilder that failed on corners for me. Watford v Arsenal a couple of years ago I had an Arsenal win, Aumbamayang to score, Arsenal to be up at half time, a red card, and Arsenal to get 5+ corners.

Arsenal were 1-0 up at half time, Aumbamayang had scored, Deeney had been sent off after about 10 minutes, and the corner count was 4. With an ENTIRE second half against 10 men Arsenal easily saw out the win, but failed to win a SINGLE second half corner to bring home the bacon. OK it was only a £1.50 or £2 stake, but it would've paid £90+. Not one more corner though. Unbelievable, Jeff.

I did a proper Zouma on the cat that night, I can tell you.

 

[Swansman]

That revives a painful memory from a betbuilder that failed on corners for me. Watford v Arsenal a couple of years ago I had an Arsenal win, Aumbamayang to score, Arsenal to be up at half time, a red card, and Arsenal to get 5+ corners.

Arsenal were 1-0 up at half time, Aumbamayang had scored, Deeney had been sent off after about 10 minutes, and the corner count was 4. With an ENTIRE second half against 10 men Arsenal easily saw out the win, but failed to win a SINGLE second half corner to bring home the bacon. OK it was only a £1.50 or £2 stake, but it would've paid £90+. Not one more corner though. Unbelievable, Jeff.

I did a proper Zouma on the cat that night, I can tell you.

Ouch. I never trust teams to get corners if they are in the lead... either the other team will get the advantage or the winning team will prefer to keep the ball and look for better opportunities than shooting from distance or crossing it randomly. I almost only do corner bets live in games if the favorites to win the game go behind or if t is a draw with 15 minutes to go.

 

[herecomesaregular]

Central midfield will probably determine the Poland - Sweden game as both teams have a good set of attackers so whoever can feed their strikers the most should have a good chance of winning.

I think Sweden has 8 straight wins vs Poland so generally speaking it has been a good matchup.

I say Zlatan comes on as a sub and takes Sweden to the World Cup. I really hope so at least, would be fantastic to see the old man in one final international championship.



Last Thursday is a good while ago and I'm not sure the 1 hour flight is a massive issue either. The 3.30 odds on Sweden is among the best you'll find today.

Agree that the odds should perhaps be shorter on Sweden. So I've gone for a combo of Draw or Sweden + most goals in 2nd half at a generous 3.8, imho.

If that loses and Poland progress then I'll enjoy Moder at WC.

Also, agree with the poster saying Japan seem under priced at the bookies (currently 250/1 at WH), yes a long shot but sometimes anything can happen at the WC and this WC (it's odd timing, the heat, players' knackered as usual, just a shit place to hold it ) it might be worth a few long shots e/w. Just for fun,

 

[Easy 10]

Ouch. I never trust teams to get corners if they are in the lead... either the other team will get the advantage or the winning team will prefer to keep the ball and look for better opportunities than shooting from distance or crossing it randomly. I almost only do corner bets live in games if the favorites to win the game go behind or if t is a draw with 15 minutes to go.

Arsenal had something like 26 shots - you'd think by accident one of them would've been blocked and gone off for a corner, or clipped a defender, or the keeper tip one over the bar or something. But no.

My antics undoubtedly made for some amused barflys though. Sake.

 

[Durlston]

Freak results happen. Italy were 1/5 to beat North Macedonia last week and Italy are European Champions. Man City were 1/16 to beat Sporting Lisbon at home 3 weeks ago. That doesn't mean City won't feature in the Champions League shake up. France drew 0-0 at home to Luxembourg in qualifying for the World Cup which they went on to win, and they weren't priced anything like 400/1 to do so. Anyone putting a 1/8 outcome on an acca is a mug, especially when the short priced team has absolutely nothing to play for.

I'm not sure about the 'nothing to play for' line for Japan.

IF Saudi Arabia win their match at home to Australia later, they will win the group and Japan qualify as runners-up automatically. They'd be a pot four seeded nation probably and deservedly so. They couldn't argue with that. In a six-team group that wouldn't happen in Europe - they'd have to go through a two match play-off to earn their spot. That's why the Asian/African/Oceania teams are priced at huge odds - it's so much easier to qualify. And when they get there the World Cup knockout stage is flooded with European and South American nations. The gulf in class is so huge.

 

[Simster]

I'm not sure about the 'nothing to play for' line for Japan.

IF Saudi Arabia win their match at home to Australia later, they will win the group and Japan qualify as runners-up automatically. They'd be a pot four seeded nation probably and deservedly so. They couldn't argue with that. In a six-team group that wouldn't happen in Europe - they'd have to go through a two match play-off to earn their spot. That's why the Asian/African/Oceania teams are priced at huge odds - it's so much easier to qualify. And when they get there the World Cup knockout stage is flooded with European and South American nations. The gulf in class is so huge.

My point is that this isn't the case unless you really think Japan (or Canada or the USA or whoever) are genuinely that far behind say Switzerland or Serbia. I don't think they are at all. I mean Japan won't win the thing but nor will those nations. But at 400/1, funnier things have happened.

 

[Swansman]

Agree that the odds should perhaps be shorter on Sweden. So I've gone for a combo of Draw or Sweden + most goals in 2nd half at a generous 3.8, imho.

If that loses and Poland progress then I'll enjoy Moder at WC.

Also, agree with the poster saying Japan seem under priced at the bookies (currently 250/1 at WH), yes a long shot but sometimes anything can happen at the WC and this WC (it's odd timing, the heat, players' knackered as usual, just a shit place to hold it ) it might be worth a few long shots e/w. Just for fun,

I'd say the World Cup is one of very few tournaments where not anything can happen. Tahti can win the Oceanic Cup (or whatever it is called), Greece can win the Euros, Chile can win the SA equivalent... but the World Cup requires too many too good teams to be too bad.

 

[Simster]

I'd say the World Cup is one of very few tournaments where not anything can happen. Tahti can win the Oceanic Cup (or whatever it is called), Greece can win the Euros, Chile can win the SA equivalent... but the World Cup requires too many too good teams to be too bad.

This doesn't hold up to any scrutiny. Only 3 nations outside Europe have won the World Cup (and only 2 since 1950) so I don't see how it's that much different to the 16 team Euro 2004 that Greece won.

 

[herecomesaregular]

I'd say the World Cup is one of very few tournaments where not anything can happen. Tahti can win the Oceanic Cup (or whatever it is called), Greece can win the Euros, Chile can win the SA equivalent... but the World Cup requires too many too good teams to be too bad.

Fair enough but I'm a dreamer and I do believe this shitty Qatar WC might throw up a surprise, at least that's what I'm hoping. Of course, I would love England to win (would have preferred the Euros though). I've watched a bit of the Japanese qualifiers and sometimes I've liked them a lot (going forward).