Will we win a match from being in a losing position this season?

[LamieRobertson]

I think it will happen tonight

 

[MattBackHome]

However, Gus has committed to playing a more expansive style for the rest of the season because we cannot afford to draw games, so I think the chances of us going behind will increase, irrespective of the quality of our defending.

We should try to be like Cardiff, effective but winning, their last eight games are W6 D2 L0 F8 A2 Points 20.

Yeah I'll accept that. Though I would suggest that Gus' interpretation of 'expansive' is likely to be somewhat less effusive that yours or mine (notwithstanding the excellent team selection and subs on Saturday.) It seems that "more attacking" means "play two up top" in Uruguayan. To be clear I'm not complaining at all - I'm more than happy with this and really looking forward to seeing what team comes out of the tunnel tonight.

My main point in this thread is the same as ever for when this stat it trotted out. The statistic is entirely irrelevant if supplied without context. If people are going to quote it they should supply the same stat for the rest of the Championship as well. Until then it's worthless, and to play around with it, or extrapolate from it is foolish.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

I disagree.

Firstly because the games in which we concede first are less likely to be the games in which we expect wins. Secondly because if we are going for the playoffs by definition the defence has to improve, meaning fewer occasions of us going behind.

I see your point, but disagree.

As a base, let's say we need to get another 30 points to be sure of a play off spot (takes us to 75 points, which is the safest indicator).

That's the equivalent of 10W/0D/6L. Or 9W/D3/4L. Or 8W/6D/2L.

We've conceded first in 43% of our league games so far this season. Allowing for an improved defence/improved team, I think we could hope to reduce that to 25% for our remaining matches.

That would mean going behind in 4 matches between now and the end of the season. If our conceding first record was to continue it would mean we could hope to take 2 points (2D/2L maximum) from those 4 matches.

That would mean requiring another 28 points from the other 12 games. That would work out as 9W/1D/2L (or 8W/3D/0L for 27 points)- too big an ask, IMO. Which is why I reckon one of those conceded first matches needs to be a win to be certain of a play off spot.

 

[MattBackHome]

Like Birmingham when they had been beaten 5-0 by Barnsley the match before leaving them in 19th place while we were topped the table, in 20th place when we played the return fixture, or Ipswich who were in 23rd place in that match following the first birmingham match, or Blackburn who were midtable while we were hoping to close in on the play offs, or sheffield wednesday who were down in 20th place with among the worst home form?

Of course you're right - if anything, the Championship is pretty much definable as 'the league where anyone can beat anyone'. However it is inarguable that a team is more likely to get a better result against teams lower in the table, and more likely to get a worse result against those at the top. I wouldn't suggest that we are definitely going to get our points against some and not against others.

I just don't think it's solid to use the "win from a losing position" stat in this context.

 

[severnside gull]

I think we should give all opponents a goal start until we get this onerous stat off our backs

 

[Thunder Bolt]

You could equally start a thread asking if we will lose a match where we have scored first this season.

 

[MattBackHome]

Actually, doesn't more attacking football make us more likely to score first? Meaning fewer opportunities to win from behind?

The dependencies of this statistic are so intertwined it's making my head spin.

 

[Icy Gull]

This season we have conceded first 15 times, scored first 15 times and had 3 goalless draws.
When scoring first, W12 D3 L0
We have scored first, then got pegged back and fallen behind 0 times, i.e. we have never trailed at any point in a game we scored first in

So, we have been trailing in a match 15 times this season and come back to win 0 times,
We have been trailing in a match and managed to draw 6 times.


Last season after doncaster we conceded first 21 times, scored first 27 times, and had 4 goalless draws.
When scoring first, W19 D5 L3
We have scored first, then got pegged back and fallen behind 3 times (losing all three)

So, after the doncaster game last season, we trailed in 24 matches, and won 0 times.
We trailed in 24 matches and got 6 draws.


In Total since the doncaster game, we have been trailing at some point in 39* matches, and won** none of those matches, and got a draw 12 times.


Or to look at it another way, 11 points out of 102*** were rescued from a losing position



*Competitive games
**In regular time
***Five of the matches we fell behind in were cup games, 34 x 3 points available to be rescued = 102; one of the drawn games was a cup game so only 11 points earned from draws

You are the resident Statto on here Acker so you may be able to tell me if a team has ever managed to get promoted having not come from behind to win a game during the season? This could be a tough stat to find I know but I can't see us being able to continue to carry this monkey and get promoted as well.

For what it's worth I feel we will manage to come from behind to win sometime soon.

 

[Acker79]

You are the resident Statto on here Acker so you may be able to tell me if a team has ever managed to get promoted having not come from behind to win a game during the season? Tall order I know but I can't see us being able to continue to carry this monkey and get promoted as well.

Sorry, I don't know that one. I only really keep brighton stats, and only been doing that a few seasons.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

You are the resident Statto on here Acker so you may be able to tell me if a team has ever managed to get promoted having not come from behind to win a game during the season? This could be a tough stat to find I know but I can't see us being able to continue to carry this monkey and get promoted as well.

For what it's worth I feel we will manage to come from behind to win sometime soon.

These are the records of the teams immediately around us when they've conceded first in a match this season:

Burnley - conceded first in 12 games: W1 D4 L7

Blackburn - conceded first in 12 games: W2 D1 L9

Brighton - conceded first in 13 games: W0 D6 L7

M'boro - conceded first in 16 games: W4 D1 L11

Palace - conceded first in 12 games: W5 D2 L5

Hull - conceded first in 11 games: W3 D0 L8

 

[shaolinpunk]

Dominated the opening 23 minutes only for Blackburn to hit us with a sucker punch. Now would be a good time for a winning comeback

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

That was a prime opportunity to get the monkey off our back.

 

[Seasider78]

Sure Naylor tweeted at weekend we had not lost after scoring first either

 

[Acker79]

Sure Naylor tweeted at weekend we had not lost after scoring first either

Not this season, no.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

Three chances to do it since this thread was started. As I said, we won't make the play-offs unless we break this duck.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

We may have to do it on Sunday if we're going to enjoy St. Patrick's Day, and what a match to do it in.