[Albion] Why are we so BAD at home?

[macbeth]

Maybe stuff like this is a part of the problem. Some of our fans on NSC seem to venerate this type of statistical over analysis and over indulgence because it is Tony’s thing and because of their experience on PlayStation. I understand probability. Made my living out of it for 30 years as an Options Trader but that doesn’t mean I think it should be applied to all of life’s decisions.

there certainly is a danger of reading too much into it, and I'm sure you understand probability. but no, I don't think looking at stats is anything to do with why we all think we're crap at home. you can draw that conclusion just by watching the games.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

there certainly is a danger of reading too much into it, and I'm sure you understand probability. but no, I don't think looking at stats is anything to do with why we all think we're crap at home. you can draw that conclusion just by watching the games.

So true !!

 

[MJsGhost]

Well...nothing happens in isolation, everything is a co-created experience. In an incredibly non-original way I think it's a combination of the crowd and the players and it's a chicken and egg situation. The players need to perform to get the crowd on side. The crowd being on side helps the players perform. It's no-one's fault, just how it is. It's well established in sports psychology (and I've referenced it elsewhere on the board) that having a mindset where you play to win is more often successful than a mindset where you play to avoid losing. Home advantage should come from comfort with surroundings, having the majority of the crowd behind you, the positive atmosphere of being on your own turf (literally) etc etc so the perceived risk of losing is less than being away where you're potentially defensive in every context from the moment you arrive. But all that is lost if the atmosphere of that home environment carries pressure to avoid losing. When you're focussing on what not to do rather than what to do your brain stops acting as you've been trained and stops being so instinctive. If you're interested in this kind of stuff it's why some teams only choke at home in big games - suddenly the pressure to not lose feels much bigger than the incentive to win. Chelsea and Real Madrid's respective home/away performances in the Champions League over the past week and a bit for example.
There's an audible groan around the Amex at every attack that breaks down, at every misplaced shot, the vocal frustration at drawing again...anyone who says it doesn't or shouldn't affect players is living in a fantasy world. Graham Potter's occasional digs at home support acknowledge this. It's partly what managers talk about when they say players like Foden are fearless - it's not just fearless of opponents, it's a rare skill to shutout all emotion so opponent, location, situation, size of the game...it's all irrelevant. Compare that home Albion experience to going away where anything at all they hear from their supporters is on their side but sometimes perhaps they won't hear much at all over the volume of home support, and it's not hard to see how that conscious or subconscious mentality to avoid defeat is absent when away. It's probably a lot more fun playing at an away ground and a lot less pressure.

I totally agree with this.
It’s understandable that GP gets a bit frustrated. He’ll be working very hard to instil a culture of psychological safety, where mistakes are accepted so it will stop players from worrying about making errors and play more freely. If the crowd get on a player’s (or the team’s) back on a Saturday afternoon, it undoes everything he’s been trying to do all week. On the other hand, he will have LOVED the ovation Maupay got when subbed the other week, as it reinforces what he’s trying to achieve.

Listening to West Ham on the radio the other day when they played Lyon a lot was made of how the move to the new stadium killed their atmosphere and performance for a long time, but nights like that were creating a new history, there was a generation coming through who'd only ever known that ground, and the crowd were making it a place where the team thrived and other teams knew they'd have a tough game. Very different circumstances for us obviously, I'm not drawing any new stadium link because there isn't one, but just reflecting that every former player interviewed about that game or commentating on it said the crowd makes a huge difference - they were saying the crowd getting supportive again after all the disputes was as much a part of the West Ham revival as Moyes.

For West Ham, I don't think there is much of a chicken/egg debate. The fans only got behind the team once they had strung a good few wins together. They were angry about the new stadium and a manager they thought would be sh|t and that only changed once they started winning (one then fed off the other thereafter, that's for sure though).

It would be an interesting experiment to see what happened if (regardless of what was being served up on the pitch), the Amex crowd was in full, positive voice from the off in a game. Every corner of the ground on their feet singing and cheering for 90-odd mins... (OK, maybe 85 for some realism, as those trains won't catch themselves...). Would we be more likely to win? YES.

The trouble is, there's a significant amount of our support that has become (understandably) jaded from watching us toil away at home with little or no reward and needs a spark to reignite the fervent support. Some of the realities of 'modern' football exacerbate the problem - higher prices, more 'rules' to follow in the ground, a bigger disconnect with the players (these guys are on so much money, they shouldn't make mistakes, right?). Expectations are higher, so disatisfaction bubbles to the surface more easily. Likewise, it quickly melts away when things are going well on the pitch and then everyone's happy and loud again.

What's going to break the negative cycle? Wins at home to spark the crowd, or a fervent crowd to carry the team to victories?

 

[pure_white]

we ask the player to shoot?

 

[um bongo molongo]

I think the influence of the fans is overstated, vs the limitations of our squad in breaking down opposition defences set up to defend.

 

[sydney]

When we're going through a tough patch, I genuinely long for an run of away games. I was also certain that when we were playing behind closed doors during the pandemic that we'd be absolutely fine relegation-wise.

I honestly think that our home fans are not that great at backing the team when things get tepid, which is quite often. To me, this is on account of games in the PL being less of a barnstorming, all-action adventure and more a tactical bout between often quite well matched teams. The "backs against the wall" atmosphere is superb, the "2-0" and cruising atmosphere (although rare) is great too, the "0-0 and the team need a crowd boost" atmosphere is almost always a bit lackluster.

Away from home, you tend to always fall into the "backs against the wall" category so the crowd is usually more vocal and engaged.

fans go away , customers attend The Amex , a lot of them aren't really arsed and just go for a moan .

the way the club is evolving is not conducive to raucous home support , it's frowned on in many parts of the ground.

 

[Icy Gull]

Too many deflected goals against or in off the woodwork
, NONE for us!


The only QUALITY goals against recently was vs Burnley?

 

[Icy Gull]

we ask the player to shoot?

30 shots against Norwich not good enough for you?

 

[Taybha]

Things are changing,we lost a generation of would be Brighton fans but it's quite noticeable how many what I'd call new bluds you see at away games now and basically a mob of youngsters in their teens and 20s the likes I've not seen since the 80s,it's strange because I don't really see these lads at home games but they must be season ticket holders or most would be to get to go to away games nowadays,hopefully once all the old codgers like me finally pop their clogs the atmosphere will improve with it,that's something to look forward to

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Things are changing,we lost a generation of would be Brighton fans but it's quite noticeable how many what I'd call new bluds you see at away games now and basically a mob of youngsters in their teens and 20s the likes I've not seen since the 80s,it's strange because I don't really see these lads at home games but they must be season ticket holders or most would be to get to go to away games nowadays,hopefully once all the old codgers like me finally pop their clogs the atmosphere will improve with it,that's something to look forward to

yeah this.

Noticeable levels of new young fans in the North stand this season.
Gobby 20 year olds. Pissed/Coked up/Lairy/pissing me off.

As it should be.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

interesting that we have the biggest variance and CP have the smallest - and yet our records are identical!

The stats are showing the variance between XGD and actual GD at home and away.

Palace are (generally) shit away from home and Decent at home.
This table is purely showing that their Stats match their XGd, whereas ours imply we are luckier away, than we are at home.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Yes this has been done to death, so feel free to skip out, but I have been trying to work this out over the last few days with the gift of renewed perspective following the win at the weekend. Much easier to have a more subjective view when things aren't so doom and gloom.

But I came across this on twitter today and it has absolutely floored me (credit to @veryharshtakes on twitter)

View attachment 146884

The stat here is xGD, which is expected goal difference, so calculated out of the figures for expected goals both for and against. You can make reasons as to why we're bad at one thing or another when it comes to home form, such as scoring, or winning games, but I just don't understand how we can be so utterly terrible overall, with some of the away performances we've seen. This isn't me having a dig at any of the playing or coaching staff, or wanting to see another thread about the atmosphere, nor do I want to discolour the mood on here after such a fantastic result at the weekend. It's just absolutely baffling. How can we be worse at home than Watford, and only marginally better at home than Everton are away, and yet only have worse away xGD than Liverpool, Chelsea and Wolves?? It's puzzling, that's all. For there to be so much discrepancy between our home and away form there has to be something more going on, shirely?

The stats aren't showing what you are claiming.

The stats show the difference between actual GD and XGD, not how well we are performing
One team could have a Home XGd of -4 and an actual GD of -3 and that would appear as a positive performance on this table.

 

[Hugo Rune]

There are basically two camps of thought here.

The first, and completely correct assertion, that the way to counteract Graham Potters tactics have been worked out by most teams. We just don't have the players to break down teams defending in numbers, whereas away teams have to come at us and we can exploit more space. The team pretty much know as they run-out at the Amex that if its a non top 4 side they are going to tap the ball about all afternoon looking at a crowded final third of the pitch and probably fluff their lines at the 2 or 3 proper chances they will get. Potter just hasn't found a way to get his side to work it out yet.

The second, and completely incorrect assertion, that it is somehow the fans fault. Complete rubbish of course. Someone mentioned West Ham. Despite managing to make some noise for a European tie , That stadium is still like a morgue for league games yet they have been fantastic all year. Why? Because their playing style and playing talent is more effective against away team tactics. Simple.

I think Webster and Emwepu being injured has really hurt us, as they are probably the only two players who can be direct and break defensive lines quickly by driving with the ball. Caceido looks like he might also bring that to the side. Hopefully having them fit and playing will see us be better for the remainder of the season.

I’m in the 1st camp of thought.

It’s so very very frustrating. We play almost identically to Man City in a lot of home games but the difference is, they have some of the worlds best finishers and score a large percentage of their good chances and we have, well, some of our players would struggle to score in Championship or below! I suspect if we paid enough (I’m looking at you Darwin) we’d get the quality finishing we need, but a responsibly run club can’t afford those transfer fees and salaries. We need a striker version of Ben White to come through, the likes of Connolly are not cutting the mustard.

I heard a football finance expert declare that results are influenced 90% by budget, 5% by the Manager and 5% by luck. The Potter Out campaign would be absolutely furious with this assumption and would scream at the expert - ‘THE MANAGER IS ALWAYS TO BLAME 100%!’.

It’s rather romantic to think that if we found a good enough manager we might rise above our bottom six budget but utterly delusional which is odd because we are 4 places above the bottom 6, 2 places above the best finish in our entire history yet the Potter Out campaign is thriving amongst fans who view the club through the prism of emotion instead of logic, reasonableness or intellect.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Ask all the other clubs , whose home stats are superior to ours......there are plenty of them to choose from.


PS: That would be 17 of the other 19 Premier League clubs or,

all 19 of the other Premier League clubs who have scored more home goals than the Albion.

Your premise is that every other home team faces ‘the other 14’ teams in a situation (like us) where they park the bus. Utter nonsense.

Parking the bus is the known tactic at the Amex which only a few teams don’t adopt. It almost guarantees at least a point because the football world know that we don’t have enough quality finishers in the squad. Norwich didn’t play badly. They played to a plan and got their point, they’ve seen Palace win with two touches in the penalty area, they had two good shots and could have nicked the 3 points. They played very well indeed because they followed a plan exactly, they knew we’d never score in a month of Sundays if they kept their shape and very rarely crossed the half way line or attacked.

You don’t have a solution to how we can get more points at home other than to sack Potter. Rational analysis would tell you, however, that if we had EPL top 10 finishers (instead of Championship finishers), we’d be in the EPL top 10.

 

[Robinjakarta]

.. yet the Potter Out campaign is thriving amongst fans who view the club through the prism of emotion instead of logic, reasonableness or intellect.

I don't see any thriving Potter Out campaign.

 

[cjd]

Your premise is that every other home team faces ‘the other 14’ teams in a situation (like us) where they park the bus. Utter nonsense.

Parking the bus is the known tactic at the Amex which only a few teams don’t adopt. It almost guarantees at least a point because the football world know that we don’t have enough quality finishers in the squad. Norwich didn’t play badly. They played to a plan and got their point, they’ve seen Palace win with two touches in the penalty area, they had two good shots and could have nicked the 3 points. They played very well indeed because they followed a plan exactly, they knew we’d never score in a month of Sundays if they kept their shape and very rarely crossed the half way line or attacked.

You don’t have a solution to how we can get more points at home other than to sack Potter. Rational analysis would tell you, however, that if we had EPL top 10 finishers (instead of Championship finishers), we’d be in the EPL top 10.

I respect your differing opinion to mine. That is fine.

However, I must take you to task on a couple points...:

" You don't have a solution at home, other than to sack Potter. " I do stand to be corrected , but I don't think I have ever advocated sacking Potter. I have in the past acknowledged he is a competent manager, but after 3 years, still hasn't worked out that his game formula doesn't work at home. It's frustrating.

As for our forwards etc being only Championship level ( your words not mine ) I wonder why our away form indicates that we can score as many goals away from home as other middling teams...?

Apart from a complete over reaction to my posts on this thread, I appreciate we see things differently.

 

[Milano]

Your premise is that every other home team faces ‘the other 14’ teams in a situation (like us) where they park the bus. Utter nonsense.

Parking the bus is the known tactic at the Amex which only a few teams don’t adopt. It almost guarantees at least a point because the football world know that we don’t have enough quality finishers in the squad. Norwich didn’t play badly. They played to a plan and got their point, they’ve seen Palace win with two touches in the penalty area, they had two good shots and could have nicked the 3 points. They played very well indeed because they followed a plan exactly, they knew we’d never score in a month of Sundays if they kept their shape and very rarely crossed the half way line or attacked.

You don’t have a solution to how we can get more points at home other than to sack Potter. Rational analysis would tell you, however, that if we had EPL top 10 finishers (instead of Championship finishers), we’d be in the EPL top 10.

Don’t let a small fact like MISSING A PENALTY get in the way of your nonsense that Norwich had some master plan that Potter fell for…..

I do agree that teams sit in against us, Villa even did it against us at their place. If Undav is the beast he’s meant to be and we get Mitoma in and Sarmiento gets game time then that will help a lot next season to counter that tactic. Power, pace and moving the ball quickly.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I respect your differing opinion to mine. That is fine.

However, I must take you to task on a couple points...:

" You don't have a solution at home, other than to sack Potter. " I do stand to be corrected , but I don't think I have ever advocated sacking Potter. I have in the past acknowledged he is a competent manager, but after 3 years, still hasn't worked out that his game formula doesn't work at home. It's frustrating.

As for our forwards etc being only Championship level ( your words not mine ) I wonder why our away form indicates that we can score as many goals away from home as other middling teams...?

Apart from a complete over reaction to my posts on this thread, I appreciate we see things differently.

Fair enough about the over reaction.

By ‘champion level’, I meant ‘shooting’. I believe Welbeck, Trossard and Maupay have a top 10 EPL all round game. In fact Welbeck’s shooting is fine but he has never been a natural goal scorer like a Murray or Zamora because he has always sacrificed himself for the team rather than hung about in great scoring areas.

However, if I was going to criticise Potter, I’d offer a solution. The only solution I can see to breaking down these deep defences is much better shooting, Mwepu style.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Don’t let a small fact like MISSING A PENALTY get in the way of your nonsense that Norwich had some master plan that Potter fell for…..

It’s not nonsense. Norwich employed the same tactic as many many bottom half teams have done against us during Potter’s reign. Those teams nearly always get the point they came for, sometimes they get lucky (like Palace or Wolves) and take all three. They got exactly what they came for. Oddly, I bet their manager KNEW we’d miss any penalty chance we got. He was probably having a big chuckle post match Fat Sam style.

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

I think the solution is to relocate the Amex to North London, say Alexander Park (about two miles from both the Emirates and White Hart Lane). Guaranteed to win every game.
We could rename the stadium the The Alex.