[Football] Who's going to get relegated?

[BN41Albion]

Can see Palace getting sucked right in to it. Saints, Leeds, Burnley and Newcastle will all improve second half of the season, where It feels Palace have shot their bolt early with some high tempo possession play and not really got any returns.

Really, what makes you say that? Rivalry aside, they've looked decent so far this season and look like they have more than enough to be clear of relegation worries.

 

[Gwylan]

So many say Newcastle can buy their way out in January but that relies on them being in a position to attract the type of players they need. Those who will be up for the fight yet ok with getting stuck in to come back up if necessary. They could be at risk of ending up with a bunch of highly paid mercenaries and a real issue on their hands

Yeah, I don't get those people who say that Newcastle can buy their way out - it's not that easy. If money is the sole answer, we'd never see a team relegated from the PL struggle in the Championship, their parachute payments would see them safe ... but it doesn't work out like that,

To meet FFP obligations, Newcastle have £180m to spend. That sounds like a lot, but that's roughly what Man U's defence cost - the players who looked League 1 standard on Sunday.

Newcastle may strike lucky and buy a group of players who immediately gel and make a difference, but they may not. And if the club is sufficiently behind when the window opens, all that spending may not help.

 

[NooBHA]

Norwich Burnley and Brentford

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Yeah, I don't get those people who say that Newcastle can buy their way out - it's not that easy. If money is the sole answer, we'd never see a team relegated from the PL struggle in the Championship, their parachute payments would see them safe ... but it doesn't work out like that,

To meet FFP obligations, Newcastle have £180m to spend. That sounds like a lot, but that's roughly what Man U's defence cost - the players who looked League 1 standard on Sunday.

Newcastle may strike lucky and buy a group of players who immediately gel and make a difference, but they may not. And if the club is sufficiently behind when the window opens, all that spending may not help.

Somehow I doubt they'll consider FFP an "obligation"

They'll reason it's better to spend what they need to achieve their aims and deal with the consequences of breaking FFP in the unlikely event that there are some.

 

[Machiavelli]

The current bottom three are the obvious choices, nine games in and not a win between them.

Of the three though the only one I'd say with any confidence is Norwich. They look doomed. Burnley don't look great but they always seem to find a way so it's too early to call them. Newcastle look terrible but with the takeover they should get a bit of impetus. It would be lovely if the y did go down though.

Of the other sides Leeds don't look all that but their style of play should see them pick up enough wins to stay up.

Palace only have one win but also only two defeats. I think they have the firepower to keep them up.

Saints are the definition of mediocre in my book, if they go on a bad run they could easily find themselves in the championship next season.

Watford seem very jekyl and hyde. They've looked the worst team in the division on a number of occassions but they've also pulled off impressive wins. The appointment of Ranieri could go either way too. Won the league with leicester. Relegated with Fulham.

Villa. I don't think they will but it would be funny if they did.

Everyone from Brentford up would need a terrible rest of season to go down. It's always possible but unlikely.

Good summary of the leading contenders

 

[Rogero]

This time last year Spurs were top,Southampton 5th and the bottom 3 were all eventually relegated.

 

[loz]

If my memory serves me right, once upon a time Millwall were in the top 5 at Xmas and were relegated, only spending about 10 minutes in the relegation zone…unfortunately it was the last 10 minutes of the season.

 

[MJsGhost]

If my memory serves me right, once upon a time Millwall were in the top 5 at Xmas and were relegated, only spending about 10 minutes in the relegation zone…unfortunately it was the last 10 minutes of the season.

It's a lot more likely to happen from 15th and only 5 points above the relegation places though isn't it?

 

[Gwylan]

If my memory serves me right, once upon a time Millwall were in the top 5 at Xmas and were relegated, only spending about 10 minutes in the relegation zone…unfortunately it was the last 10 minutes of the season.

The season that Millwall were relegated from the top division was 1989/90 and they spent most of the season in the bottom three. They were doomed about six weeks before the end of the season, finishing 17 points from safety (I've just checked the details as I remember that season and Millwall were dreadful, I remember going to watch them to see how bad they were)

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

If my memory serves me right, once upon a time Millwall were in the top 5 at Xmas and were relegated, only spending about 10 minutes in the relegation zone…unfortunately it was the last 10 minutes of the season.

Your memory doesn't serve you correctly. In the only season Millwall have ever been relegated from the top flight (89-90 season) they were 15th on Christmas day. They finished bottom and 17 points from safety so they spent a lot more than just the last 10 mins of the season in the relegation zone.

They were as high as second after 5 games and were 5th with 14 points after 8 games, they only won one more match that season.

 

[loz]

It's a lot more likely to happen from 15th and only 5 points above the relegation places though isn't it?

Errr yes, I wasn’t talking about Brighton or Palace though, just a thought I had about being safe…Christ Palace were 6th at Xmas a few years ago and flirted with relegation 4 months later.

 

[loz]

Your memory doesn't serve you correctly. In the only season Millwall have ever been relegated from the top flight (89-90 season) they were 15th on Christmas day. They finished bottom and 17 points from safety so they spent a lot more than just the last 10 mins of the season in the relegation zone.

Doh….I must stop drinking scotch…

I wonder why I had that in my memory banks?..

 

[MJsGhost]

Errr yes, I wasn’t talking about Brighton or Palace though, just a thought I had about being safe…Christ Palace were 6th at Xmas a few years ago and flirted with relegation 4 months later.

You'd have been better off looking at Soton last season for that.

(and I don't believe that you weren't making a dig at Brighton )

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Doh….I must stop drinking scotch…

I wonder why I had that in my memory banks?..

I've edited my post, they had a great start to the season, winning 4, drawing 2 and losing 2 of their first 8 games, to see them 5th. They only won 1 of the remaining 30 games.

 

[loz]

You'd have been better off looking at Soton last season for that.

(and I don't believe that you weren't making a dig at Brighton )

No I wasn’t, as much as it may stick in the craw, I can see that Brighton are a good footballing team, there would be no point in me denying that.

 

[super-seagulls]

If my memory serves me right, once upon a time Millwall were in the top 5 at Xmas and were relegated, only spending about 10 minutes in the relegation zone…unfortunately it was the last 10 minutes of the season.

Were you Thinking of Blackpool? I’m sure they did similar with Phil Brown as manager.

 

[golddene]

They were as high as second after 5 games and were 5th with 14 points after 8 games, they only won one more match that season.

Oh dearie me, couldn't happen again, could it !

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Oh dearie me, couldn't happen again, could it !

Anything is possible, but the fundamentals look in place for us to not go on that sort of horror run which we'd need to go on to go down. We have a highly resilient defence, good team spirit, decent tactician at the helm, leaders on the pitch and good squad depth (in most positions). Goals scored is the risk, but even then with a good defence we don't need to score as many as some would.

Even when things do go wrong, which I'm sure they will, we'll continue to pick points up here and there.

 

[Surf's Up]

I've edited my post, they had a great start to the season, winning 4, drawing 2 and losing 2 of their first 8 games, to see them 5th. They only won 1 of the remaining 30 games.

Hope this isn't a portent..............

 

[Gwylan]

Were you Thinking of Blackpool? I’m sure they did similar with Phil Brown as manager.

It was similar but Ian Holloway was their manager.

I think Hull had a similar run under Brown though ... however, Hull just about survived, despite a spectacular loss of form