Who do you consider Brighton's biggest rival for second spot? part 2

[dwayne]

Derby have lost 1 and drawn 2 of their last 4. Since the transfer window speculation has started it seems to have destabilised the team. Too far back now, they're gonna blow it the derby way.

Reading concern me but I just cannot see them sustaining current form.



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[Gwylan]

Said Reading the last time, I'll say Reading again. Have seen no reason to change my mind, they're the most consistent of the challengers and they remind me of us last year (not big enough squad, not played the big teams yet, can't sustain this run, blah, blah). I'd bet on them making top 3

 

[Triggaaar]

Reading concern me but I just cannot see them sustaining current form.

People have mentioned that only us hitting problems can stop us, and that gets more and more true as the games go by. None of the teams looks like that big a threat now, the biggest danger I guess is the threat of injuries.

Given that the transfer window has just opened, we now have the chance to ensure even a couple of injuries can't stop us. With Kayal and Rosenior due back, I think we have strength in depth everywhere except for the competition for Sam, so that still looks like the place to strengthen.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Said Reading the last time, I'll say Reading again. Have seen no reason to change my mind, they're the most consistent of the challengers and they remind me of us last year (not big enough squad, not played the big teams yet, can't sustain this run, blah, blah). I'd bet on them making top 3

Exactly. Underestimate them at your peril. To come back from 2-0 down away from home with only 20 minutes remaining isn't a trivial thing.

 

[Simster]

I said Norwich when they were pony, and I still think Norwich. They are about to climb just as Newcastle are about to stutter without Shelvey and the African Nations coming up.

Reading might just maintain their threat but I think Leeds will struggle to keep with them (much as I admire Gary Monk).

 

[severnside gull]

Still rather wait until the January window is out of the way but you have to admire Reading, Huddersfield & Leeds and one defeat won't stop Derby's charge. It's tighter than it first appears.

 

[Rugrat]

Derby have lost 1 and drawn 2 of their last 4. Since the transfer window speculation has started it seems to have destabilised the team. Too far back now, they're gonna blow it the derby way.

Reading concern me but I just cannot see them sustaining current form.

Reading are away at Derby on the 21st and that will be an interesting one. I've got it down as a Derby win but I still don't think that will impact on Reading taking 3rd spot. If Reading were to win that though it could really throw the cat amongst the pigeons

 

[Bozza]

Reading are away at Derby on the 21st and that will be an interesting one. I've got it down as a Derby win but I still don't think that will impact on Reading taking 3rd spot. If Reading were to win that though it could really throw the cat amongst the pigeons

Ahead of that, both Reading (v QPR) and Leeds (v Derby) get to play before our fixture at Preston.

Two home wins there will put the pressure on both us and Newcastle.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

The peloton are being remarkably resilient. Our form is the best in the entire football league and we still aren't widening the gap. Not counting my chickens yet, but hopeful. Expected reading to fall back, Leeds and Hudds over achieving. If anyone keeps this form going it looks like reading.

 

[Rugrat]

At the risk of being hosed here's an early run out of predictor. Really difficult to be objective with our results but done it with half an eye on what's needed.

It's dynamic ... meaning it is allowed to change

End column (89) is how many points a team can drop and still make what is likely to be a good number for auto .. if it's more than 89 all the better I think

No Derby (84) or Narch (82)

I generally get about 50% correct but the way in which they fall means they often cancel out ... so a win becoming a loss is negated by a loss becoming a win elsewhere. Also the overall points at this stage are generally 4-10 too high

If anyone wants the spreadsheet to play then PM me an email add (don't think I can put up here)

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Thursday 12th January 2017
Reading V Queens Park Rangers

Friday 13th January 2017
Leeds United V Derby County

Saturday 14th January 2017
Bristol City V Cardiff City
Birmingham City V Nottingham Forest
Burton Albion V Wigan Athletic
Fulham V Barnsley
Ipswich Town V Blackburn Rovers
Preston North End V Brighton & Hove Albion
Rotherham United V Norwich City
Sheffield Wednesday V Huddersfield Town
Wolverhampton Wanderers V Aston Villa

Monday 16th January 2017
Brentford V Newcastle United

 

[Audax]

Said Reading the last time, I'll say Reading again. Have seen no reason to change my mind, they're the most consistent of the challengers and they remind me of us last year (not big enough squad, not played the big teams yet, can't sustain this run, blah, blah). I'd bet on them making top 3

Exactly. Underestimate them at your peril. To come back from 2-0 down away from home with only 20 minutes remaining isn't a trivial thing.

I went for Reading last time, and what followed was an interesting debate (and a heavy 5-0 drubbing vs Fulham that got me thinking they'd been a bad call). But several matches on, and they just keep hanging in there. They're still the closest challenger, and have been the closest match for us over the last 10 games in terms of points scored. Their game in hand vs Fulham is probably a tricky one where we can hope they drop points. I suspect Reading will continue to drop points vs other teams in and around the play off places.

From here, I now fully agree with others that the only real opposition we face is ourselves. A few have mentioned the cautionary history of Burnley's run last season, but I think it's important to remember that we're now a few games beyond the point where Burnley started their run (so in reality, any team that wants to overhaul us now should need to do *better* than Burnley did last season). More importantly, I only see 3 teams that are likely to be capable of such a sustained run. Us, Newcastle, and Derby. And even Derby I'm not sure of - those dropped points vs Norwich are costly, putting them 14 points behind and us a game-in-hand.

 

[Simster]

I'm chuckling heartily at the pictures used to describe Sheffield Wednesday and even more so, Reading. Great work [MENTION=18774]Rugrat[/MENTION].

 

[Triggaaar]

Exactly. Underestimate them at your peril. To come back from 2-0 down away from home with only 20 minutes remaining isn't a trivial thing.

Rotherham came from 3-0 down away to Derby last season, with 7 minutes remaining. There, so Reading are no better than Rotherham

 

[Gwylan]

I'm chuckling heartily at the pictures used to describe Sheffield Wednesday and even more so, Reading. Great work [MENTION=18774]Rugrat[/MENTION].

I can't see the pictures or the points totals. Is there a version in a more readable size?

 

[Rugrat]

I can't see the pictures or the points totals. Is there a version in a more readable size?

Assume you are using mobile/tapatalk? Not sure shrinking the pic will help I'm afraid

 

[Gwylan]

Assume you are using mobile/tapatalk? Not sure shrinking the pic will help I'm afraid

No, a PC but the writing and pix are tiny - which is a shame, because it looks interesting

 

[Triggaaar]

If anyone wants the spreadsheet to play then PM me an email add (don't think I can put up here)

You can load it on google, and put a link here

 

[happypig]

Reading for me
Looking at the top 10, all of them could potentially get 100+ points and steamroller the division but on current performance it's only us who would get that many. More realistically only us and Toon get over 90 (plus Reading if the win thier game in hand).

Team	P	Pts	PPG	Max poss	projected
Brighton	24	54	2.25	120	104
Newcastle United	25	52	2.08	115	96
Reading	24	46	1.92	112	88
Huddersfield Town	25	46	1.84	109	85
Leeds United	25	45	1.80	108	83
Sheffield Wednesday	25	42	1.68	105	77
Derby County	25	40	1.60	103	74
Barnsley	25	38	1.52	101	70
Norwich City	25	37	1.48	100	68
Fulham	24	36	1.50	102	69

 

[Triggaaar]

View attachment 80714

Reading on 90 and Leeds on 88. 6 teams over 85. Nah.