[Albion] Where will we finish in Europa League

[Sheebo]

I might be wrong but if both Albion and Marseille draw their next matches, or both win by the same margin, we will still be one point behind Marseille and will need to beat them at the Amex as our GD is worse. A draw won’t be enough for top spot, and we’d finish 2nd.

If both Albion and Marseille win, but we win by 2 goals more than Marseille, then our GD becomes better than Marseille's, and a draw at the Amex against them will see us finish top.

If we draw and they win in the next round of matches, we can still finish top by beating them at the Amex.

The one thing we must avoid is losing in Athens. If we do so, we’re almost certain to finish 3rd.

You’re correct with first bit but GD doesn’t matter essentially - it’s on head to head results so yes they’re still top if we both draw next games and we’d need to beat them to be top. The worry if we draw with AEK is that in the final round a defeat for us and a win for them would leave us 3rd as their head to head against us would be better.

Second bit - incorrect as above

Third bit - correct

Fourth bit - not necessarily - would depend on the other results. That would only be the case if both AEK and Marseille beat Ajax too. Remember third doesn’t knock us out of Europe though and there’s an argument to say 3rd would give us a better chance of progressing further in Europe than 2nd as the conference league is easier…

 

[SeagullinExile]

We’ll definitely finish top 4 IMO.

 

[Bodian]

The one thing we must avoid is losing in Athens. If we do so, we’re almost certain to finish 3rd.

Not necessarily. I wouldn't put it past Ajax getting a couple of draws, like they did in their first two games.

Athens v Albion - Athens
Marseille v Ajax - Ajax or draw
Albion v Marseille - Albion
Ajax v Athens - Ajax or draw

Albion - 10 points
Marseille - 8 or 9 points
Athens - 7 or 8 points
Ajax - 4 or 7 points

 

[London Irish]

How many teams who finish 3rd in the groups go through to the playoffs? All of them or only a certain number with the highest points?

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Not necessarily. I wouldn't put it past Ajax getting a couple of draws, like they did in their first two games.

Athens v Albion - Athens
Marseille v Ajax - Ajax or draw
Albion v Marseille - Albion
Ajax v Athens - Ajax or draw

Albion - 10 points
Marseille - 8 or 9 points
Athens - 7 or 8 points
Ajax - 4 or 7 points

"Not necessarily" is correct.

I said we’re "almost certain" to finish third if we lose in Athens. Going into the final match, AEK would be 2nd and us 3rd, and it’s no longer in our hands. Maybe "almost certain" is too strong but AEK, with a home game against Ajax, would be favourites to finish 2nd — pushing us into 3rd.

 

[Krafty]

How many teams who finish 3rd in the groups go through to the playoffs? All of them or only a certain number with the highest points?

All of them.

but AEK, with a home game against Ajax, would be favourites to finish 2nd — pushing us into 3rd.

AEK Athens will be playing away at Ajax. Nevertheless, I still see them getting a victory - look at what they did against us!

 

[Colonel Mustard]

You’re correct with first bit but GD doesn’t matter essentially - it’s on head to head results so yes they’re still top if we both draw next games and we’d need to beat them to be top. The worry if we draw with AEK is that in the final round a defeat for us and a win for them would leave us 3rd as their head to head against us would be better.

Second bit - incorrect as above

Third bit - correct

Fourth bit - not necessarily - would depend on the other results. That would only be the case if both AEK and Marseille beat Ajax too. Remember third doesn’t knock us out of Europe though and there’s an argument to say 3rd would give us a better chance of progressing further in Europe than 2nd as the conference league is easier…

GD DOES matter, but only if the head-to-heads are equal. Whatever Marseille do next match (apart from losing by a bigger margin to reduce their GD below ours), if we draw, we have to beat them at the Amex. If we draw with Marseille at the Amex, we will have the same head-to-head records (two draws) so it's then down to GD. If GD is the same, it’s number of goals scored. Hence the reference to the significance of us winning by more goals than them in game week 5.

Hope that makes sense.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

All of them.

AEK Athens will be playing away at Ajax. Nevertheless, I still see them getting a victory - look at what they did against us!

Good point, thanks for the correction. OK, that makes it slightly less clear cut. But the permutations are getting complex now. Essentially, as I said, we need to avoid defeat in Athens to be certain of finishing in the top 2. And a win against Marseille at the Amex will guarantee top spot.

 

[Sheebo]

GD DOES matter, but only if the head-to-heads are equal. Whatever Marseille do next match (apart from losing by a bigger margin to reduce their GD below ours), if we draw, we have to beat them at the Amex. If we draw with Marseille at the Amex, we will have the same head-to-head records (two draws) so it's then down to GD. If GD is the same, it’s number of goals scored. Hence the reference to the significance of us winning by more goals than them in game week 5.

Hope that makes sense.

Nah sorry pedant coming out in me here. I put ‘essentially’ for a reason. It doesn’t go to GD in the group, that’s permutation number 5. It goes to all sorts of head to head stats before that (like goals scored and away goals in head to head matches). For GD in the whole group to come into play, you’d have to have the exact same result home and away. Eg if we were to finish level on points with Marseille, overall GD would only come into play if we draw 2-2 at the Amex:

1. Points in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
2. Goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
3. Goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
4. Away goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
5. Goal difference in all group matches;
6. Goals scored in all group matches;
7. Away goals scored in all group matches;
8. Wins in all group matches;
9. Away wins in all group matches;
10. Disciplinary points (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
11. UEFA club coefficient.

 

[nsclurker]

Top 4

 

[Hamilton]

We will win in Athens

If we have any players left, yes we will.

 

[Sheebo]

In fact, overall group GD cannot possibly happen with Ajax or AEK for us now. The only was overall group GD will possibly matter for us is if:

A) We come level on points with Marseille
As well as
B) We draw 2-2 with Marseille at the Amex.

Other than that it’s impossible! So highly unlikely to matter.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Nah sorry pedant coming out in me here. I put ‘essentially’ for a reason. It doesn’t go to GD in the group, that’s permutation number 5. It goes to all sorts of head to head stats before that (like goals scored and away goals in head to head matches). For GD in the whole group to come into play, you’d have to have the exact same result home and away. Eg if we were to finish level on points with Marseille, overall GD would only come into play if we draw 2-2 at the Amex:

1. Points in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
2. Goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
3. Goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
4. Away goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
5. Goal difference in all group matches;
6. Goals scored in all group matches;
7. Away goals scored in all group matches;
8. Wins in all group matches;
9. Away wins in all group matches;
10. Disciplinary points (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
11. UEFA club coefficient.

That’s an old list, the away goals in head to games results is no longer used as a tie break due to the abolition of the away goals rule.

If we draw with Marseille at home and finish level on points it will go down to goal difference across all group games.

The away goals in all group games tie break is still used if it required.

 

[Sheebo]

That’s an old list, the away goals in head to games results is no longer used as a tie break due to the abolition of the away goals rule.

If we draw with Marseille at home and finish level on points it will go down to goal difference across all group games.

The away goals in all group games tie break is still used if it required.

Oh ffs - ignore me then everyone…!

On wiki it just says ‘ Tied on head-to-head results. Overall goal difference is used as a tiebreaker’

Results means just the result and not the score I assume… Still impossible for GD to come into play for us with AEK and Ajax though. So only Marseille - and that would mean us drawing and them losing in the next games then us drawing at the Amex - so very unlikely to come down to GD right…

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Oh ffs - ignore me then everyone…!

On wiki it just says ‘ Tied on head-to-head results. Overall goal difference is used as a tiebreaker’

Results means just the result and not the score I assume… Still impossible for GD to come into play for us with AEK and Ajax though. So only Marseille - and that would mean us drawing and them losing in the next games then us drawing at the Amex - so very unlikely to come down to GD right…

Your list is correct other than the away goals in head to head. So the score does matter because goal difference and goals scored in head to head games are the second and third tie breakers.

So for example if a side wins a home game 3-0 and loses the away game 2-0 if those two teams finished level on points at the end of the group stage the team who won 3-0 would have a better goal difference so would advance.

Goals scored in head to head games can only be used if 3 are teams tied on points at the end of group stage.

 

[empire]

We will win in Athens

Is correct

 

[Sheebo]

Your list is correct other than the away goals in head to head. So the score does matter because goal difference and goals scored in head to head games are the second and third tie breakers.

So for example if a side wins a home game 3-0 and loses the away game 2-0 if those two teams finished level on points at the end of the group stage the team who won 3-0 would have a better goal difference so would advance.

Goals scored in head to head games can only be used if 3 are teams tied on points at the end of group stage.

Got ya - so basically we’d have to draw 2-2 with Marseille at the Amex - draw v AEK in next game and Ajax beat Marseille in next game for overall group GD to possibly play a part for us - eg it’s very unlikely to matter….

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Got ya - so basically we’d have to draw 2-2 with Marseille at the Amex - draw v AEK in next game and Ajax beat Marseille in next game for overall group GD to possibly play a part for us - eg it’s very unlikely to matter….

Any draw with Marseille would leave us tied in the head to head, it doesn’t need to be 2-2. Then if we both finish level on points it would come down to group goal difference to separate us.

It is unlikely but not impossible for those other results to happen for us and Marseille to finish level on points.

 

[trueblue]

Oh ffs - ignore me then everyone…!

On wiki it just says ‘ Tied on head-to-head results. Overall goal difference is used as a tiebreaker’

Results means just the result and not the score I assume… Still impossible for GD to come into play for us with AEK and Ajax though. So only Marseille - and that would mean us drawing and them losing in the next games then us drawing at the Amex - so very unlikely to come down to GD right…

These are the criteria this season, confirming what Joey says. It's a shame they removed the AGS from the head to head as would have done us a big favour, having scored a couple in Marseille. They're written to initially cover the eventuality that there are more than 2 teams tied, basically redrawing the group with those teams' results and whittling it down from there.

If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied in the order given to determine their rankings. Result does mean taking score into account - otherwise you wouldn't be able to apply GD & GS.

1. higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;
2. superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;
3. higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;
4. if, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to k) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal;
5. superior goal difference in all group matches;
6. higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
7. higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;
8. higher number of wins in all group matches;
9. higher number of away wins in all group matches;
10. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
11. higher club coefficient (see Annex D).

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

Got ya - so basically we’d have to draw 2-2 with Marseille at the Amex - draw v AEK in next game and Ajax beat Marseille in next game for overall group GD to possibly play a part for us - eg it’s very unlikely to matter….

Actually, I can see the possibility of those three outcomes, especially as Ajax need a win to have something to play for in their last game.
Then it would take a two goal victory for Ajax v Marseille for us to come top or a ridiculously high scoring draw for us v Athens, as Marseille's goals scored is better than ours.
All scenarios are quite complicated, but not losing to Athens and beating Marseille gives the best chance of qualifying top, without relying on other results