pastafarian
Well-known member
How many will be wearing face masks when grounds re-open and will you have to remove them for a stewards inspection so the cameras can see who you are.
[Albion] When will we, and when should we next play at the Amex in front of a full house?
- Thread starter Deadly Danson
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Not sure I can see a way that full Premier League crowds could be watching games within the currently-planned window for the 2020/21 season.
As others have said, the issue is not to much crowds in the stadium bowl itself, but transport to and from the ground as well as concourses, including the toilets. In a bizarre twist, our much-heralded sustainable transport setup doesn't help us much in Covid-world.
I don't really understand "the virus will burn itself out" comments, unless I'm missing something. Falling infection, hospitalisation and death rates are a direct result of the actions we have taken, which broadly come down to limiting human-to-human contact, particularly indoors. As interaction increases, and it will as we gradually release the lockdown handbrake, then all of those things can creep up once again.
It will take careful management to keep the virus at levels that health systems can deal with, but come the winter we will have the traditional flu season, and the demands it represents, coinciding with Covid-19 still in the mix.
Obviously all this changes if the Oxford or A.N.Other vaccine reaches the point of mass production and deployment before then, but that feels optimistic.
As others have said, the issue is not to much crowds in the stadium bowl itself, but transport to and from the ground as well as concourses, including the toilets. In a bizarre twist, our much-heralded sustainable transport setup doesn't help us much in Covid-world.
I don't really understand "the virus will burn itself out" comments, unless I'm missing something. Falling infection, hospitalisation and death rates are a direct result of the actions we have taken, which broadly come down to limiting human-to-human contact, particularly indoors. As interaction increases, and it will as we gradually release the lockdown handbrake, then all of those things can creep up once again.
It will take careful management to keep the virus at levels that health systems can deal with, but come the winter we will have the traditional flu season, and the demands it represents, coinciding with Covid-19 still in the mix.
Obviously all this changes if the Oxford or A.N.Other vaccine reaches the point of mass production and deployment before then, but that feels optimistic.
Weststander
Well-known member
All this.
Dr Chris Smith (the Naked Scientist) explained this week that probably just 5% of the UK’s population have had covid19, at most 10%. So 90%+ plus are potential new cases. Social distancing and quasi-lockdown has kept cases and mortality down.
The perfect breeding grounds of a packed cinema, theatre, or football concourses/loos/park’n’ride will be the last places to open at full capacity.
Silverhatch
Well-known member
The narrative is quickly moving toward self-determination/risk assessment. The Government shit themselves, then the people, in order not to overwhelm the NHS. Data now shows that the vast majority of morbidity is in the over 65 (over 75) category (with underlying HC). More of this type of data will become commonplace to reassure (most u75s) regarding the risk of returning to a near normal state of behaviour. Football crowds will return but the age profile will be younger.
ShandyH
Well-known member
Agree. The opening game of 2021-2022 season and there are a huge amount of ifs involved; Tracing app works, antibody tests rolled out, vaccine successfully developed, treatments work etc. Antibody tests have already been developed by Roche but need to be distributed to 7bn people. Very encouraging news on treatments today with potential T-cell treatment. But the technology will need to narrow the field of infected from millions to hundreds of thousands and then down to the crowd attending being proven to represent no risk whatsoever. And this is a long way off.
Winker
CUM ON FEEL THE NOIZE
Shirley at some point we should be treated as sensible and intelligent human beings and invited to sign some sort of disclaimer - i.e. "I know that by taking over-packed public transport to a crowded sports stadium I could catch a life threatening virus, but who gives a sh1t". Type of thing. I'd sign on the dot as the odds on dying are minimum.
Washie
Well-known member
But you're willing to spread it to people in your community?
When there is a Vaccine, or an effective treatment, probably not until the season after next. By which time we will have either one, both or none of those and in that case we will just have to accept that crowds carry the risk of the disease and throw caution to the wind. But to answer your question I do not see capacity crowds until 2022/23
You know that bloke who sits two rows behind you and rants at Stephens every time he passes the ball sideways?
Well he's got it.
Well he's got it.
el punal
Well-known member
When will we? The answer is when we should. Unfortunately, at the moment, no one knows. I would imagine the last bastions of enjoyment to be “opened up” will be pubs and sports venues because of the lack of social distancing. Until a vaccine or acceptable treatment/cure is found we’re jiggered.
In my view the 2019/20 season should be made null and void. The chances of completing all the fixtures in a fair and honest fashion is becoming more remote as each day passes. Also, being totally pessimistic here, I cannot see the 2020/21 season starting anytime soon, if at all. We could now be looking at an 18 month period of no football until August 2021.
In my view the 2019/20 season should be made null and void. The chances of completing all the fixtures in a fair and honest fashion is becoming more remote as each day passes. Also, being totally pessimistic here, I cannot see the 2020/21 season starting anytime soon, if at all. We could now be looking at an 18 month period of no football until August 2021.
cheshunt seagull
Well-known member
- Jul 5, 2003
- 2,595
My rough guess would be around Jan 2021. The rate of infection may drop to very low levels by the autumn this year but they will be wary of a new wave of infections in the winter and will wait and see if that occurs.
Just playing devil's advocate here (because I stand by my post and also largely agree with Bozza and Weststander), is it all or nothing in the UK? By that, I mean could smaller grounds open first (i.e. non league, maybe league 2 with limited crowds allowing social distancing)? Could we see regional reopening with home fans only? I think that would be pretty hard to enforce, it would probably be STHs only with no other tickets. However, if you look at Brighton and Hove there have been only 408 confirmed cases out of 300,000 people with only 4 new ones over the last two weeks. However bad The Amex is to get to there is currently bugger all virus in the City. London has been through the mill but now has a ridiculously low transmission rate. However, the north of England is now faring badly, particularly around Manchester and Geordie land.
I'm not sure any of that IS possible by the way (opening up to L2 / non league would probably attract big club fans desperate for a fix). However, waiting till 21/22 to reopen lower league and grassroots would see, IMO over 50% of those clubs go to the wall.
I'm not sure any of that IS possible by the way (opening up to L2 / non league would probably attract big club fans desperate for a fix). However, waiting till 21/22 to reopen lower league and grassroots would see, IMO over 50% of those clubs go to the wall.
ManOfSussex
We wunt be druv
No I haven't!
Very surprised that nearly everyone in this thread is being pessimistic. There's growing evidence that the virus is already on its way out across Europe and I can see things being back to normal by August. There's a recent paper that suggests perhaps 60% of the population may have immunity due to other coronavirus infections in the past. This would explain the rapid move towards herd immunity.
I say this as someone who was in a real state of panic a month or so ago.
I say this as someone who was in a real state of panic a month or so ago.
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Every time I've been positive about this outbreak it's kicked me in the bollocks. I'd rather believe [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] and have a pleasant surprise if we're back to normal, in relative safety, earlier.
el punal
Well-known member
I hope you’re right but I would imagine the authorities’ biggest concern is if there is a resurgence. You relax lockdown, things go back to the old normal normal then wallop! How the hell do you deal with having to reinforce new lockdown measures after everyone’s tasted the honey of freedom?
Tom Hark Preston Park
Will Post For Cash
- Jul 6, 2003
- 72,361
The club, like other smart business run by highly smart, adaptive businessmen, can workaround most stuff up to a point. But I'd be very surprised, and massively impressed, if they can figure out a way to shoehorn 30,000 people into the Amex while ensuring any kind of meaningful social distancing anytime soon. Genuinely gutted for the board and for TB. Club did everything right that they could. TB paid for the stadium build during the zero-bank-lending aftermath of the global financial crash. Did everything absolutely correct in promoting use of public transport to get to and from the stadium. Then despite everything they still get hit with this shit out of a clear blue sky. Like I say, genuinely gutted for the club and their best efforts. And genuine respect also
Agree it's difficult to balance, but the signs are
A) that this hasn't happened anywhere; and
B) increasingly large proportions of people are ignoring the rules anyway, it just isn't going to last.
southstandandy
WEST STAND ANDY
- Jul 9, 2003
- 6,052
I would love this to be the case too as would I'm pretty sure everyone else.
The reason I'm not optimistic is that the last thing the Government wants to have to do is to put us into lockdown again if there was to be a 2nd major spike so their rather over-cautious current approach is understandable. As mentioned before a futher two concerts of mine were this week put back to 2021 (from dates that were originally due this September!) so I'd be very surprised if a mass gathering of 30,000 will be permitted so soon as August. Also if we were back at grounds in August presumably 'Social Distancing' would then be a thing of the past, and pubs clubs and everything else will be back to normal - in just 3 months time?
Optimistically speaking I hope we can get back to the Amex by early next year but I'm not holding my breath.