[Football] When will the Premier League play in fromnt of full houses again?

[Husty]

Yes - this seems to be the key. The developers of the Oxford vaccine have intimated today that their vaccine doesn’t appear to offer protection against the South African strain of Covid and they hope to have a modified vaccine that does in the autumn. Then I guess people will need to be vaccinated again?

Yep pretty much. I feel a very likely scenario in the future is annual Covid-19 vaccines as we already do for flu. We will most likely need to eventually reach a point where we are inoculating millions of people a day. Remains to be seen how this could be done, the NHS & pharmacies are setting a great pace right now but I'm not sure how much more headroom there is to increase the number of jabs owing to lack of trained staff and the need for those trained staff to also do their day jobs.

 

[Sleaford Seagull]

Well, there are vaccine resistant strains developing independently in Bristol & Liverpool right now - that's just in this country! There are also vaccine resistant strains that are dominant in South Africa and in Brazil...

We're doing brilliantly in this country at inoculating people but that won't be a whole lot of use if someone can bring in a vaccine resistant strain with them from some overseas travel, to a country/region where the vaccine rollout is slow, giving the virus ample opportunities to evolve necessary mutations to become resistant. Even if you were to ban foreign holidays, there would still be all the lorry drivers going through Dover e.t.c. and if we have no restrictions at all in this country then the sad truth is it only takes one asymptomatic lorry driver going to and from the continent and a few months later we could be back to March 2020 levels of transmission.

That's why I agree with the WHO that fighting Covid is a global issue. To my mind the current vaccine drive will give US a relatively carefree summer, and less-harsh & shorter lockdown next winter but true normality is still some ways off - either a true breakthrough in treatment such that we just let the virus run free or it may be that the spike protein of the virus is not tolerant to mutations and only 1 or 2 vaccine resistant strains ever develop which we're then able to inoculate against, too early to tell whether that is true though.

Not that it counts for much but my opinion is are based upon having a degree in genetics & having studied viruses a fair bit on the way to that.

I appreciate the reply, you clearly do have a far better knowledge of this than me so I'm happy to trust your opinion on it
Out of interest what would be classed as 'vaccine resistant strains'? Because if it's 5% less effective then that's not so much of a problem I guess, but completely ineffective would obviously be a huge issue.
From what I'd read aren't Astrazeneca confident it is still mostly effective? Again, not an expert at all just interested.

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[trueblue]

Yes - this seems to be the key. The developers of the Oxford vaccine have intimated today that their vaccine doesn’t appear to offer protection against the South African strain of Covid and they hope to have a modified vaccine that does in the autumn. Then I guess people will need to be vaccinated again?

I thought they’d indicated it isn’t effective at preventing mild to moderate disease, which is a slightly different thing. They still believe it will protect against falling seriously ill, so it remains good news. As you say though, it looks like we’ll all be trooping off for modified jabs on a regular basis.

As for stadia reopening, I read a report suggesting fans will be required to show they have either been vaccinated, have just had a negative COVID test or tested positive for antibodies. I suppose in that way, the stadium is a kind of ‘herd immunity’ micro-climate, where there’s very a low possibility of catching COVID and tiny risk of getting seriously sick. Seems to me though that it’s still unlikely to happen until they have more promising evidence about the effect of vaccines and prior infection on transmissibility.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I thought they’d indicated it isn’t effective at preventing mild to moderate disease, which is a slightly different thing. They still believe it will protect against falling seriously ill, so it remains good news. As you say though, it looks like we’ll all be trooping off for modified jabs on a regular basis.

As for stadia reopening, I read a report suggesting fans will be required to show they have either been vaccinated, have just had a negative COVID test or tested positive for antibodies. I suppose in that way, the stadium is a kind of ‘herd immunity’ micro-climate, where there’s very a low possibility of catching COVID and tiny risk of getting seriously sick. Seems to me though that it’s still unlikely to happen until they have more promising evidence about the effect of vaccines and prior infection on transmissibility.

We know that young people only get mild to no symptoms, and we know that this vaccine or any other vaccine doesn't stop the virus getting into your body, it just means the body can treat it faster. So maybe this test hasn't proved anything at all about the vaccine except that we aren't completely immune, we just won't get ill.

It's a small test anyway. 2,000 people, no idea how long the test ran for because they haven't said, the results haven't been published.

As far as I am concerned the likelihood is that it will work in a similar way to other vaccines because I have not heard that significant numbers have caught this variant after already having another variant. If one strand of coronavirus protects against this mutation, I would expect vaccines that work on the first strand to work at least to a significant degree on this variant.

Remember that first and foremost, a vaccine wins you time. It means your body is ready to go with the antibodies to neutralise the virus. Vaccines don't cure anything; they prepare the body's immune system so the body's immune system can defeat the virus. If this report says that the vaccine produced suitable antibodies against the SA mutation, then it sounds like it is doing its job at least to some extent.

Let's read the test report.

 

[crodonilson]

Good luck with getting people into another lockdown once this one is lifted fully.

There has been widespread public support for this and previous lockdowns, in fact many people have questioned why we gave continually locked down too late and with lighter restrictions than other countries. If the virus surges out of control again through new mutations and puts the NHS under pressure and deaths soar I fully expect the majority of the public will support further lockdowns if necessary and continued restrictions until it is safe for them to be lifted in the evidence of the virus declining and hospitalisations declining.

 

[Justice]

There has been widespread public support for this and previous lockdowns, in fact many people have questioned why we gave continually locked down too late and with lighter restrictions than other countries. If the virus surges out of control again through new mutations and puts the NHS under pressure and deaths soar I fully expect the majority of the public will support further lockdowns if necessary and continued restrictions until it is safe for them to be lifted in the evidence of the virus declining and hospitalisations declining.

Can you really see lockdown support after the money runs out?

 

[OzMike]

Strange how each different country has it's own form of mutation. Almost like countries having different languages, strange behaviour indeed. Unless it has been engineered that way.............hmm.

 

[sparkie]

There has been widespread public support for this and previous lockdowns, in fact many people have questioned why we gave continually locked down too late and with lighter restrictions than other countries. If the virus surges out of control again through new mutations and puts the NHS under pressure and deaths soar I fully expect the majority of the public will support further lockdowns if necessary and continued restrictions until it is safe for them to be lifted in the evidence of the virus declining and hospitalisations declining.

It depends.

If the vaccinated old have been given vaccine passports and been allowed to fly away and live the life of Riley while the young continue to be grounded after sacrificing so much to protect them, do you really think the young will be so keen to do it again ?

 

[crodonilson]

It depends.

If the vaccinated old have been given vaccine passports and been allowed to fly away and live the life of Riley while the young continue to be grounded after sacrificing so much to protect them, do you really think the young will be so keen to do it again ?

That's not going to happen, we're all in this together, some 8-9m people now will have good protection from the original strains of the virus but we haven't allowed them to have any easing of restrictions. When we do ease restrictions it will be very slow and gradual and will apply to all groups irrespective of age.

 

[sparkie]

That's not going to happen, we're all in this together, some 8-9m people now will have good protection from the original strains of the virus but we haven't allowed them to have any easing of restrictions. When we do ease restrictions it will be very slow and gradual and will apply to all groups irrespective of age.

Well you'd like to think so, but there has been a little bit of "I'm alright now, Jack" attitude surfacing recently.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

That's not going to happen, we're all in this together, some 8-9m people now will have good protection from the original strains of the virus but we haven't allowed them to have any easing of restrictions. When we do ease restrictions it will be very slow and gradual and will apply to all groups irrespective of age.

Including the 3 million self employed that haven't recived a penny?

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I thought they’d indicated it isn’t effective at preventing mild to moderate disease, which is a slightly different thing. They still believe it will protect against falling seriously ill, so it remains good news. As you say though, it looks like we’ll all be trooping off for modified jabs on a regular basis.

As for stadia reopening, I read a report suggesting fans will be required to show they have either been vaccinated, have just had a negative COVID test or tested positive for antibodies. I suppose in that way, the stadium is a kind of ‘herd immunity’ micro-climate, where there’s very a low possibility of catching COVID and tiny risk of getting seriously sick. Seems to me though that it’s still unlikely to happen until they have more promising evidence about the effect of vaccines and prior infection on transmissibility.

They say they still believe it will protect people from falling seriously ill but only because the other vaccines do so. The reality is that their test subjects were all young people so all they are able to show is that it does not protect against mild disease. The data on older people will appear if and when any of those vaccinated with Oxford start appearing on ventilators in ICU (or not).

 

[Perfidious Albion]

It all depends on the Covid numbers but hopefully some fans back start of next season. If it were me I’d have it by percentage of capacity perhaps 10% to start... but a full house I guess not before next year.

 

[paulfuzz]

I don't think it ever will. The powers that be can shut the world down with a click of their fingers so it will never be the same.

This

 

[Bombadier Botty]

Just let those fans in who have a history of staying to the final whistle, job done as a half full to capacity AMEX should meet the social distancing criteria.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Just let those fans in who have a history of staying to the final whistle, job done as a half full to capacity AMEX should meet the social distancing criteria.

I’ve always felt sorry for those old codgers they have keeping records of fans’ arrival and departure times. Every time they mark up an early leaver on their chalk board and then have to scrub it out as just a toilet visit I always want to help in some way. The things you miss at the football eh

 

[paulfuzz]

I wonder if we will asked to provide evidence we've been vaccinated before being allowed to buy a ticket

Back in November Nadhim Zahawi said that health passports would be driven by the private sector. Speaking to SKY News at the time, he acknowledged that businesses would want to know that customers had proof of a negative test or had been vaccinated. Soon, you will be unable to do anything or go anywhere without your health passport.

 

[paulfuzz]

The trigger for lockdowns is usually positioned around rising hospital admissions and deaths with a need to ‘protect the NHS’. So my guess is once the at risk categories (who make up the highest numbers of those two statistics) are vaccinated those numbers will drop significantly and the rest of us will be told to get on with life with some milder controls.

So I am hoping next season will start with full capacity or at worse a 4-6 week ramp up so the Gov are not perceived to be opening the floodgates.

Speaking on Times Radio over the weekend, Kings College scientist Tim Spector said that it might be “years” before large weddings and big outdoor sports events can take place without restrictions. Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology said:

“I can’t see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again, I can’t see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone.”

 

[Mellotron]

Speaking on Times Radio over the weekend, Kings College scientist Tim Spector said that it might be “years” before large weddings and big outdoor sports events can take place without restrictions. Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology said:

“I can’t see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again, I can’t see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone.”

I think the "without restrictions" is pretty key there. Such as hand washing or masks.

 

[blue-shifted]

I think the "without restrictions" is pretty key there. Such as hand washing or masks.

Neither can be easily enforced though.

Health Passports is the only way I can see it happening