[Albion] When we were safe

[big nuts]

reckon Norwich and Watford will be better than any of this seasons bottom 3 were.

We will need to progress this summer to survive

By progress are you saying we will need more than 41 points?

I’ve seen nothing from any of the promoted clubs or potentially promoted clubs to suggest they’re better than the current bottom three.

30 points could conceivably keep us up. 35 points we’d be almost certain, 40 or above and it’s not going to happen.

 

[Sorrel]

If we'd stuck on 29 points I suspect Fulham and WBA would have played some of their remaining matches with a bit more belief that they could do it...

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Norwich especially, still have the bulk of the squad that they went down with, they will be that much stronger for their experience in the Premier League.

As that squad wasn't good enough to stay up last time why will it be good enough to stay up this time?

 

[dadams2k11]

I suppose it is natural for some supporters to look backwards and forwards rather than just keeping minds on the present, but I really don't get it.
For football and everything else, the past is gone and the future is uncertain.
Thankfully I think the management at the Albion is 'grounded' and focuses on what needs to be done in the present.

Couldn't agree more. Great post.

 

[dazzer6666]

I was just thinking that actually. The old adage of having to reach 40 points to be safe isn't necessarily true anymore.

That stems from when there were more teams in the division as well.........

 

[GT49er]

I was just thinking that actually. The old adage of having to reach 40 points to be safe isn't necessarily true anymore.

I will still continue to be happy/relieved if and when we go past that 40 points mark - whether it's game 18, 28 or 38!

 

[Bozza]

I suppose it is natural for some supporters to look backwards and forwards rather than just keeping minds on the present, but I really don't get it.
For football and everything else, the past is gone and the future is uncertain.
Thankfully I think the management at the Albion is 'grounded' and focuses on what needs to be done in the present.

All we have is the past and the future.

As soon as we start to consider the present it has become the past, rapidly disappearing into the rear view mirror.

 

[GT49er]

As that squad wasn't good enough to stay up last time why will it be good enough to stay up this time?

Two years older and wiser; two years more experience; a better idea of what they'll be facing.

Have we improved in the last two years? - yes, of course we have. So why assume that everybody else hasn't improved too?

 

[big nuts]

Two years older and wiser; two years more experience; a better idea of what they'll be facing.

Have we improved in the last two years? - yes, of course we have. So why assume that everybody else hasn't improved too?

It would be a hell of an improvement if they got anywhere close to doubling their 21 points from the 2019/20 season. Throw in also a minus 49 goal difference.

That’s a worse return than Sheffield United this season.

They may well have improved, but I can’t see them getting much more than 30 points. 32/33 at a push if they beat the teams around them next season.

 

[GT49er]

It would be a hell of an improvement if they got anywhere close to doubling their 21 points from the 2019/20 season. Throw in also a minus 49 goal difference.

That’s a worse return than Sheffield United this season.

They may well have improved, but I can’t see them getting much more than 30 points. 32/33 at a push if they beat the teams around them next season.

Enough to keep them up and to go again this season.

They'll also have kept the team together, crucially with the addition of one or two new and better players.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

That stems from when there were more teams in the division as well.........

That's not true. In the three seasons of the PL that had 22 teams, 40 points would have relegated you easily in all 3 seasons. In the first season Palace were relegated on 49 points. In the second season the highest points total of the bottom 3 was 42 (Sheff Utd) and in the third season Palace were again relegated on 45 points (there were 4 relegation places this season to change the league to 20 teams, 3rd bottom Norwich had 43 pts).

The average of 40 points is a bit similar to the 50 point target that is normally mentioned for the EFL it's not statistically factual but a rounded figure that if you hit you are almost certainly safe. I am sure I read somewhere that the actual average for the team finishing 3rd bottom is about 36.7 points so hitting 37 points means you are, on the law of averages, more than likely to be safe, it certainly would have been enough in all 4 of our PL seasons.

Since the change to a 20 team league only 3 sides have ever been relegated on 40 or more points. Sunderland (96-97) and Bolton (97-98) both went down with 40 points and West Ham (02-03) on 42 points. Since then 40 points has been enough to stay up.

 

[dazzer6666]

That's not true. In the three seasons of the PL that had 22 teams, 40 points would have relegated you easily in all 3 seasons. In the first season Palace were relegated on 49 points. In the second season the highest points total of the bottom 3 was 42 (Sheff Utd) and in the third season Palace were again relegated on 45 points (there were 4 relegation places this season to change the league to 20 teams, 3rd bottom Norwich had 43 pts).

The average of 40 points is a bit similar to the 50 point target that is normally mentioned for the EFL it's not statistically factual but a rounded figure that if you hit you are almost certainly safe. I am sure I read somewhere that the actual average for the team finishing 3rd bottom is about 36.7 points so hitting 37 points means you are, on the law of averages, more than likely to be safe, it certainly would have been enough in all 4 of our PL seasons.

Since the change to a 20 team league only 3 sides have ever been relegated on 40 or more points. Sunderland (96-97) and Bolton (97-98) both went down with 40 points and West Ham (02-03) on 42 points. Since then 40 points has been enough to stay up.

Fair point, tks. It looks as though the safety number is generally getting lower.........

 

[Deleted member 2719]

I suppose it is natural for some supporters to look backwards and forwards rather than just keeping minds on the present, but I really don't get it.
For football and everything else, the past is gone and the future is uncertain.
Thankfully I think the management at the Albion is 'grounded' and focuses on what needs to be done in the present.

More people look backwards in life than I ever realised. Although I am unsure whether it's a NSC bubble thing, or a worldwide thing?

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Two years older and wiser; two years more experience; a better idea of what they'll be facing.

Have we improved in the last two years? - yes, of course we have. So why assume that everybody else hasn't improved too?

We have improved in two years. We also only have Dunk and Gross, and to a lesser degree March and Bissouma, who are regulars now who were regulars then. The only other survivors from the team two years ago barely play at all - AJ, Propper, Izquierdo, Andone. We've changed our squad.

If Norwich and Watford are going to take on the Premier league with the same squad that failed last time, good luck to them.