Whoislloydy
Well-known member
Now that's the attitude!
[Albion] What will be the Magic number of points to survive in the PL?
- Thread starter Seagull Mags
- Start date
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Now that's the attitude!
One more than 18th. The rest of your post is fluff and conjecture.
The actual figure is not the issue - one more point than the team who finished in 17th would have seen them safe. Obviously.
Easy 10
Brain dead MUG SHEEP
I'd assume it was Palace, being as they've been the worst team in the country for 2 years and yet have somehow stayed up.
Can we have a recount ?
How many points a team needs on average is conjecture!
Have you seen the thread title?
What will be the Magic number of points to survive in the PL?
This whole thread is about how many points we'll need. Obviously we'll be happy with one more than however many 18th get, but how many is that likely to be?
So we look at past seasons to get an idea of how many points it usually takes. And you're saying add one to whatever the team in 18th got, and I'm explaining why that's wrong.
Well, you were clearly wrong, then
If 18th gets 38 points and 17th 44 points, the required figure was 39 (ignoring GD), not the average of 41.
Didn't quite get that edit in on time!
I reckon 40 should do it. If we get 40 points and still go down, we'll just have to file it alongside Frodo's two goals at Norwich that bounced in off the back off Stockers' head, the complete and utter shyster's performance at Middlesbrough, Barton not being sent off and an incontinent c nut of a Palarse coach driver with no shred of decency.
Things that just happen.......................to us; you know how it is!
Things that just happen.......................to us; you know how it is!
The_Viper
Well-known member
1 point per game is my own thought. I think only 1 team has been relegated with 38 or more in the last 15 odd years. 38 points is my target for us.
Lincoln Imp
Well-known member
- Feb 2, 2009
- 5,964
The target last season was two points a game and this season it's around one per game. We're beating that at the moment but we need to factor in the teams we've played.
The bedwetters' guide elsewhere is helpful - my simple calculation is that we should aim for three points out of the six available from each of the 13 other also-rans and then hope we pick up the odd point here and there from the half-dozen Champions League chasers.
The bedwetters' guide elsewhere is helpful - my simple calculation is that we should aim for three points out of the six available from each of the 13 other also-rans and then hope we pick up the odd point here and there from the half-dozen Champions League chasers.
throbinson
Well-known member
On current form we will finish on 45 points, job done
ferring seagull
Well-known member
- Dec 30, 2010
- 4,607
One would hope that, after poohgate, a member of Albion staff would be inspecting the visiting dressing room on arrival of the visiting team - just saying !
You'd get splendid odds on that
Buzzer
Languidly Clinical
- Oct 1, 2006
- 26,121
I'm not sure it's fair to judge all teams equally at this point. Some are in a slightly false position seeing as they've played a few more tougher games than others. My gut feel is 39 points and we'll just about be okay.
Peter Ward
Well-known member
Between now and the end of the season I think its likely that I will have had at least 40 pints.
It's unlikely we'll get anything from the top 6, if that were the case then our current form gets us to 39
I believe the norm is to allow the visitor's kit man (and his assistants if appropriate) to set out the away teams dressing room, after which it is considered away teams territory and is kept locked. I think many visitors would regard as an invasion of privacy if we went barging about in there after it had been set out. Of course, most teams, and their kit man (and coach driver) have used a toilet before and understand the correct procedure.
Peter Ward
Well-known member
and have been house-trained as children.
And FACT times interest = NEWS
tronnogull
Well-known member
- May 17, 2010
- 605
There are 380 games in a Premier League season. If we believe that the league is split in to the top six and the remaining 14 and that the 14 are close in ability then, if I have got this right ( which may well not be the case..)...
30 of the 380 games are between top 6 sides playing each other. 168 games are between one of the top 6 and one of the other 14. And, 182 games are between the other 14 playing each other.
If the top 6 , on average, win once and draw once with the other 14 then the other 14 will garner 168 points from them.
If the other 14 show their close ability by drawing all their games they will each get 2 points from the 182 games for a total of 364. If they show their close ability by winning once and losing once they will each get 3 points for a total of 546.
Then , the other 14 teams in total get ( 168 + 364 ) to ( 168 + 546 ) which is 532 to 714 points which is 38 to 51 points each.
I don't know the usual split between wins and draws but looked at the past 4 seasons and the average number of points of the lower 14 teams has been between 41 and 44. Each year the 18th place team has had 7 or 8 points less than the average. The 17th place team has had 5 or 6 points less than the average apart from last year when it was just over 1 point less.
Of course all of the assumptions in here are not how things will turn out and everyone will have their own opinions on all of it. I was just curious to see what range of point totals might be possible.
Having done all this I'm not sure it tells us much.....we already knew that until the table develops it is better for teams around us to draw their games. ( Apart from any team who we might want to lose at any cost...
)
30 of the 380 games are between top 6 sides playing each other. 168 games are between one of the top 6 and one of the other 14. And, 182 games are between the other 14 playing each other.
If the top 6 , on average, win once and draw once with the other 14 then the other 14 will garner 168 points from them.
If the other 14 show their close ability by drawing all their games they will each get 2 points from the 182 games for a total of 364. If they show their close ability by winning once and losing once they will each get 3 points for a total of 546.
Then , the other 14 teams in total get ( 168 + 364 ) to ( 168 + 546 ) which is 532 to 714 points which is 38 to 51 points each.
I don't know the usual split between wins and draws but looked at the past 4 seasons and the average number of points of the lower 14 teams has been between 41 and 44. Each year the 18th place team has had 7 or 8 points less than the average. The 17th place team has had 5 or 6 points less than the average apart from last year when it was just over 1 point less.
Of course all of the assumptions in here are not how things will turn out and everyone will have their own opinions on all of it. I was just curious to see what range of point totals might be possible.
Having done all this I'm not sure it tells us much.....we already knew that until the table develops it is better for teams around us to draw their games. ( Apart from any team who we might want to lose at any cost...
)