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[Finance] What should the government do about the coming base rate mortgage hike time bomb?



Mustafa II

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2022
1,814
Hove
800,000 people up for renewal next year.

I personally know people who simply won't be able to afford the increase. They're ones of many I'm sure.

Tax breaks? Government subsidies? Or should they just allow the crisis to play out?
 




Seagull58

In the Algarve
Jan 31, 2012
8,485
Vilamoura, Portugal
I would restrict the number of AirBNB's in places like West Cornwall via some kind of licencing scheme, they destroy local communities.

The worse offenders of all are the rich who want their "country bolt hole" and use it for just a few weeks a year.

As for the mortgage market, I'd be surprised if we don't see a 6% base rate, inflation feels well sticky.
This is exactly what the government has done in Portugal; they will no longer issue any more tourism rental licenses in the Algarve, Lisbon and other major cities. Also, anybody who changes their tourism rental property to 12 month rental contracts pays no tax on the income until 2030. They are attempting to correct the imbalance between the vast number of short-term rental properties that remain empty for 8 months of the year and the extreme shortage of affordable long-term rentals.
 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,677
The Fatherland
You're not comparing like for like there. Longer fixes are cheaper right now, because of the expectation that inflation will fall sooner or later and interest rates will follow, eg...

Halifax 2-year fixed rate: 5.36%
Halifax 5-year fixed rate: 4.89%
Halifax 10-year fixed rate: 4.74%
Fair point. I had not considered this.

When I have previously looked at long term fixes the rates went up with the length of the fix. This would have been when rates were low. I always assumed the longer the fix the higher the rate as there is 'more' uncertainty the further out you go. I had not considered the opposite i.e. if rates are high there's an expectation they will drop. If this makes sense.
 


RandyWanger

Je suis rôti de boeuf
Mar 14, 2013
6,708
Done a Frexit, now in London
I've just fixed for 3 years. The monthly increase i'm having to pay is the equivalent of buying a new boiler every 3rd month.

Would you have saved the money, and squirrelled it away in an offshore account or would you have been spending it in your local community, paying VAT and into the economy? Surely if people had more money, they'd spend more, gov would collect more tax and inflation would come down :unsure:
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,677
The Fatherland
The real stinger in this country is you have to pay a large fee everytime you renew, hence they only offer short term deals, pure profiteering. In countries like Germany they are more heavily regulated to work for the consumer, remember all that silly EU regulation we need to get rid of? Our government talk of a bonfire of regulation like that's somehow a vote winner !?!
I cant say I know anything about the regulation but there are some big differences here. 2 key ones are that it takes 2-3 weeks to buy a property (chains dont seem to exist; properties are ready to buy)....and you can get 40 year mortgages which run beyond your lifetime i.e. you can pass the mortgage on.

Oh, and kitchens are not part of the property; expect to move in with the kitchen removed or have to pay extra for the one that's already there.
 


folkestonesgull

Active member
Oct 8, 2006
915
folkestone
12+ years of cheap money have led to this crisis.
If mortgages had sat at around 3-5% for the last 10 years house price inflation would have been significantly less. The value of my new house almost doubled between 2014 (previous purchase) and 2022 (my purchase) without any improvements to the house made.
If people have chosen to pull the increase in value out of their property to fund lifestyle or BTL purchases etc then they will have to adjust or face the outcome of their choices. It's those who have saved hard to buy at the peak price/low IR a couple of years ago I feel sorry for.
 






Seat Stealer

Active member
Jun 23, 2012
318
Change from Capital & interest mortgage to interest only. Reduce outgoings now whilst needed, await mortgage completion, downsize and pay off capital from profit on inflated house price. Or re-mortgage later when either earning more or interest rates drop.
 


Normal Rob

Well-known member
Jul 8, 2003
5,794
Somerset
Would you have saved the money, and squirrelled it away in an offshore account or would you have been spending it in your local community, paying VAT and into the economy? Surely if people had more money, they'd spend more, gov would collect more tax and inflation would come down :unsure:
You're making an assumption that i can afford to do pay this. I can't. We were already falling into debt beforehand at a relatively slow rate, and now this will hasten rapidly, quite possibly spiralling out of control. The question is will my debts be called in before i have a solution to pay them off.
 




RandyWanger

Je suis rôti de boeuf
Mar 14, 2013
6,708
Done a Frexit, now in London
You're making an assumption that i can afford to do pay this. I can't. We were already falling into debt beforehand at a relatively slow rate, and now this will hasten rapidly, quite possibly spiralling out of control. The question is will my debts be called in before i have a solution to pay them off.

Sorry to hear that.
 


Marlton and Hove Albion

Active member
Oct 11, 2018
182
Sarasota FL
I am sorry if this sounds harsh and I wish anyone facing challenging times all the best but we can’t keep expecting the govt to bail people out every time things gets tough.

Since Covid it seems to be the go to solution, people will have to make sacrifices until the interest rates stabilise. I was too young to really understand it all but talking to my parents about interest rates in the late 80’s early 90’s they were horrendous and people found a way to deal with it. The same must happen now.
Government creates problems, it doesn't solve them. Why would any one want to wait for civil servants to fix their financial challenges? That is a road to hell that hundreds of millions of debtors seem to travel. Governments WANT the population to be unhealthy, unhappy, poorer, disconnected and desperate. The "government" is an elected body with the responsibility to organize and improve a narrow and limited set of societal needs (military, infrastructure, social services, criminal justice). As result of a century of overreach and citizen hibernation, the Western Democracies are bankrupt and themselves debtor nations. People need to wake up and realize that governments should be trimmed to an essential size and mandated to achieve performance and financial targets (LIKE THE REST OF US).
 






Horses Arse

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2004
4,571
here and there
Its not a popular view because it is incredibly narrow and ill considered.

People have a chance to evade huge rents to pay for someone else's house. They take the opportunity.

Some very wealthy people decide to screw the country for their increased personal wealth and power.

This pulls the rug under those aforementioned folk. Lucky folk not in a predicament accuse them of greed and infer that they planned their own life so well that they avoided these pitfalls. " If I can do it then everyone else is able to be so fortunate."

It's a very familiar patten amongst the rightys. Blame the victims of their greed.
This is not a popular view as it does not play well with the lefties.

Many people that own a property, piled in when interest rates were at record lows and with little regard for the future inevitable rises. During this time many will have been quietly, and others not so quietly, basking in profits of up to hundreds of thousands of pounds. Now with a facing wing they are expecting the Government to bale them out. This is my definition of the entitlement that pervades modern society.
 


drew

Drew
NSC Patron
Oct 3, 2006
23,607
Burgess Hill
Government creates problems, it doesn't solve them. Why would any one want to wait for civil servants to fix their financial challenges? That is a road to hell that hundreds of millions of debtors seem to travel. Governments WANT the population to be unhealthy, unhappy, poorer, disconnected and desperate. The "government" is an elected body with the responsibility to organize and improve a narrow and limited set of societal needs (military, infrastructure, social services, criminal justice). As result of a century of overreach and citizen hibernation, the Western Democracies are bankrupt and themselves debtor nations. People need to wake up and realize that governments should be trimmed to an essential size and mandated to achieve performance and financial targets (LIKE THE REST OF US).
The Right have spoken!!
 






Randy McNob

> > > > > > Cardiff > > > > >
Jun 13, 2020
4,724
In my specific case the mortgage was paid off before I rented the property out.
Oh I see, so you bought it when you had the opportunity when property was more affordable and now rent to those that don't have the same opportunites using their earnings to bolster your wealth?
 




KZNSeagull

Well-known member
Nov 26, 2007
21,089
Wolsingham, County Durham
I've just fixed for 3 years. The monthly increase i'm having to pay is the equivalent of buying a new boiler every 3rd month.
Have you watched Martin Lewis tonight? He suggests speaking to your Mortgage supplier to see if there are any "forbearance measures" that they may offer (payment holiday, increasing length of the term, going interest only for a while etc). Worth a try and see what they say.
 






Normal Rob

Well-known member
Jul 8, 2003
5,794
Somerset
Have you watched Martin Lewis tonight? He suggests speaking to your Mortgage supplier to see if there are any "forbearance measures" that they may offer (payment holiday, increasing length of the term, going interest only for a while etc). Worth a try and see what they say.
Because of our ages payment holidays, going interest free for a period or extending the term aren't options unfortunately. We'd only have less time to pay off the same amount, thereby just delaying, or increasing, the pain
 




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