What has the Board seen in Hyypia that we can't see

[Mayfair Seagull]

Probably a lot more than that. There aren't many people who will renew at near Prem League pricing to watch the likes of Crawley on a Wednesday night in December. Me included.

Plus the away attendances will plummet. No more 2000+ from a lot of clubs like Leeds, Sheffield Wednesday, etc.

This is a HUGE gamble by Bloom. If he gets it badly wrong it will take years to recover. It could pay off but I've seen nothing so far to convince me that we are nothing more than League 1 bound.

Totally agree, but is it a huge gamble or just huge incompetence and arrogance? I'm starting to think the latter.

 

[BensGrandad]

If we lose on Friday, which seems likely the way we are playing, then I have a feeling that he will be sacked. I want us to win and start to get out of the mess we find ourselves in, but surely a loss will signal the end for Hyypia.

I believe to keep his job he has to get 7 points from the next 3 games home to Millwall and Reading and away at Wolves. A loss against Millwall makes that impossible so could well be goodbye. What we dont know is what TB has promised for January in terms of strengthening of the squad.

 

[DTES]

Tony's clearly calculating the pot odds on this one.

Say relegation will cost us £10m, and sacking Sami will cost £4m - 40% of that.

If the probability of being relegated is greater than 40%, the 'right' move is to sack him as the "average" cost of keeping him exceeds the cost of firing him.

Alternatively, if our chance of survival (under Sami) is higher than 60%, keeping him is the 'right' option.

I suspect most of NSC would say the probability of us getting relegated with Sami in charge is a lot more than 40% - I reckon Tony disagrees...

 

[S'hampton Seagull]

Tony's clearly calculating the pot odds on this one.

Say relegation will cost us £10m, and sacking Sami will cost £4m - 40% of that.

If the probability of being relegated is greater than 40%, the 'right' move is to sack him as the "average" cost of keeping him exceeds the cost of firing him.

Alternatively, if our chance of survival (under Sami) is higher than 60%, keeping him is the 'right' option.

I suspect most of NSC would say the probability of us getting relegated with Sami in charge is a lot more than 40% - I reckon Tony disagrees...

Good post. I guess some of this depends on the business we are looking to do in January, if we sign some proven players you would need to factor that in as well.

 

[nwgull]

Tony's clearly calculating the pot odds on this one.

Say relegation will cost us £10m, and sacking Sami will cost £4m - 40% of that.

If the probability of being relegated is greater than 40%, the 'right' move is to sack him as the "average" cost of keeping him exceeds the cost of firing him.

Alternatively, if our chance of survival (under Sami) is higher than 60%, keeping him is the 'right' option.

I suspect most of NSC would say the probability of us getting relegated with Sami in charge is a lot more than 40% - I reckon Tony disagrees...

I would be astounded if SH is on a contract that would amount to 4m over the 2.5 years remaining on his contract. I'd guess at less than half of that figure.

 

[DTES]

I would be astounded if SH is on a contract that would amount to 4m over the 2.5 years remaining on his contract. I'd guess at less than half of that figure.

You could well be right - I have no idea on the figure.

The same logic applies though - if the cost is £2m then the probabilities become 20% relegation / 80% survival, etc etc.

 

[WhingForPresident]

I think he would be due about £2 million if he were to be sacked, so may go by 'mutual agreement' for less than a million to keep another blot off his increasingly unimpressive managerial CV?

 

[DTES]

I think he would be due about £2 million if he were to be sacked, so may go by 'mutual agreement' for less than a million to keep another blot off his increasingly unimpressive managerial CV?

Surely leaving after 20 games - with us in the relegation zone - would itself be a blot on his CV? Certainly not clean enough to give up a million pounds for?

 

[nwgull]

You could well be right - I have no idea on the figure.

The same logic applies though - if the cost is £2m then the probabilities become 20% relegation / 80% survival, etc etc.

This is why I don't think that it's the cost that is preventing them from pulling the trigger. It's probably more to do with there not being anybody else available right now that they believe could do any better. Why sack SH and then throw good money after bad on someone else?

 

[El Presidente]

If only Spanish Dave had said yes!

 

[WhingForPresident]

Surely leaving after 20 games - with us in the relegation zone - would itself be a blot on his CV? Certainly not clean enough to give up a million pounds for?

Yeah, perhaps not. I gather it just looks better than 'sacked', though prospective employers probably see through the old 'mutual agreement' line.

 

[marshy68]

Tony's clearly calculating the pot odds on this one.

Say relegation will cost us £10m, and sacking Sami will cost £4m - 40% of that.

If the probability of being relegated is greater than 40%, the 'right' move is to sack him as the "average" cost of keeping him exceeds the cost of firing him.

Alternatively, if our chance of survival (under Sami) is higher than 60%, keeping him is the 'right' option.

I suspect most of NSC would say the probability of us getting relegated with Sami in charge is a lot more than 40% - I reckon Tony disagrees...

as said previoulsy on this thread, I just cannot accept that the cost of sacking, mutual consent or whatever will cost us anywhere near 4 million quid. I play quite a bit of poker, but this is a huge risk. Relegation would cost us BHAFC millions well beyond my gambling capabilities...

Below TB's poker details. Doesnt say how much he staked to get that lot... Hope we dont get rivered on the last day of the season!

England All Time Money List

9th

All Time Money List Current Rank

229th

All Time Money List Best Rank

118th

Global Poker Index Ranking

12,075th



Popularity Ranking

223rd



Best Live Cash $964,296

Total Live Earnings $3,337,271

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

Perhaps the same right/wrong intuition that Mike Bamber saw in recruiting Alan Mullery as manager - a player who was a leader, highly respected on the pitch and an international of some repute. But, a total novice in football management, however the gamble paid off.

Fast forward some forty years, same scenario. Bloom takes a punt on Hyypia - and the gamble, so far, has failed. Time to cash in your chips on this one Tony?

I'd suggest it's what the pre-Bamber board saw in Pat Saward, who struggled to pick up the pieces of Freddie Goodwin's near miss the season before, ended up with a team full of loan signings then delivered promotion in thrilling style the following season. (We'll gloss over what happened after that ...)

 

[KZNSeagull]

If only Spanish Dave had said yes!

Your hints are clearly too subtle. If you are correct, most of this and many other speculative threads are totally redundant. But hey, that's the fun of NSC!

 

[El Presidente]

Your hints are clearly too subtle. If you are correct, most of this and many other speculative threads are totally redundant. But hey, that's the fun of NSC!

Tee Hee. At least we're now being turned down by a good manager. It was February 2009 that we were rejected by........................................JIM GANNON, on the grounds that we were too shit.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Tee Hee. At least we're now being turned down by a good manager. It was February 2009 that we were rejected by........................................JIM GANNON, on the grounds that we were too shit.

Indeed - his career has really taken off.

To even have informal talks with him is rather impressive. Assuming it was more than "Do you want to manage Brighton?" "Ha Ha Ha. No", of course.

 

[sir albion]

The high cost of relegation?

If we loose 5,000 season ticket holders paying say and average of £48 a month = £2,880,000 10,000 = £5,760,000 + associated sales at the ground, less TV money etc. Even if SH is on £500,000 PA it makes financial sense to sack him, if you think sacking him will avoid relegation.

You're like many forgetting our wage bill will half at least saving us £10 million minium

Anyway he should not be here anymore and his record is diabolical...Why keep him on has to be money or the board just want a puppet to take all the blame when we're relegated.

 

[marshy68]

You're like many forgetting our wage bill will half at least saving us £10 million minium

Anyway he should not be here anymore and his record is diabolical...Why keep him on has to be money or the board just want a puppet to take all the blame when we're relegated.

Maybe, lets hope the players contracts contained relegation clauses!

 

[Dan Aitch]

Maybe Sami's contract has small print that says he has to go with no payout, if we're in the relegation zone come January.

 

[sir albion]

Maybe, lets hope the players contracts contained relegation clauses!

Don't think we offer to many long contracts to be fair