Was it really a good thing that Boro did not win?

[theonlymikey]

We can afford to lose v Derby and still win promotion at Boro.

Well, unlikely. If Boro beat Birmingham and Brighton lose to Derby, Boros goal difference will be at least +4 better than Brightons.

To get promoted under this scenario Brighton would have to win by a 4 goal margin at a ground where Boro have only conceded 7 goals in 22 matches. Boro have not conceded more than one goal at the riverside all season. As i said, unlikely.

If we win v Derby, we can afford to draw v Boro

Depends. If Boro lose or draw against Birmingham, this is correct.

However, if Boro beat Birmingham, Brighton would need to beat Derby by enough to have an equal GD going into the last game against Boro. This allows for the fact that Brighton have a higher goals for than Boro.

So at this stage if Boro were to win against Birmingham, and taking into consideration Boro have a GD of +32 and Brighton +30.

If Boro win by one goal, Brighton would need to beat Derby by at least 3 clear goals.
If Boro win by two goals, Brighton would need to beat Derby by at least 4 clear goals.

And so on.

(and depending on margins, possibly lose against them, too).

If Boro win or Draw against Birmingham, a Boro win would guarantee Brighton to be in the play offs.

Lets says Boro do lose against Birmingham and Brighton beat Derby. If Brighton go into the last game with a +1 GD better than Boro (+3 GD swing) then Boro will still go up with any kind of win. If Brighton have +2 or +3 GD better than Boro (+4 & +5 GD swing) then Boro will go up if they beat Brighton by two or more goals.

We have to keep in mind that GD swing in a head to head counts as double. Not only does it increase the winners GD by the winning margin, it also reduces the losers GD by the exact same amount.

It is definitely going to be exciting for the neutral and there's lots of permutations between now and the end of the season.

We haven't even considered the possibility of QPR and Charlton ruining Burnleys chances of autos, however unlikely that may seem.

 

[glasfryn]

Actually what I think is a real shame is that Boro and Burnley are not on 94 points now so that we have no pressure on last two games and can concentrate on doing our homework on Sheff Weds.

SO YOU THINK WE ARE NOT
sure Chris will have a dossier on them right now as well as all the others we might play

 

[Acker79]

Well, unlikely. If Boro beat Birmingham and Brighton lose to Derby, Boros goal difference will be at least +4 better than Brightons.

And that +4 would be wiped out with a two goal win for us. Which then goes to goals scored and we've scored 70, Boro have scored 60. So it isn't a lost cause. When Boro came to visit us, no team had beaten us. No team had scored more than two goals against us. They managed to get three. Scoring twice against them is not going to take something out of the ordinary. Put a tenner on us winning 2-0 v Boro on the final day, you're not going to get massively long odds, because the counter to their good goals conceded record is our 12 goals in 3 games.

If Boro win or Draw against Birmingham, a Boro win would guarantee Brighton to be in the play offs.

Unless Burnley lose/draw both their games (remember this scenario involves us beating Derby).

But I think in my head I added the proviso that Birmingham would have to lose their game v Birmingham (and forgot to add that to the post) - if the margins in that hypothetical loss and our hypothetical win v Derby were wide enough, and the margin of our hypothetical loss to boro small enough. We could still be promoted irrespective of Burnley's results.

I would stress that all of the above is about possible results, not necessarily very likely results, and that it was more about how Boro's dropped points today have opened up all these permutations, and that's a good thing. That now we won't have to be so tense when we go face Derby, we can go in trying to win, but not nervous that a loss would cost us. And should we win that game well enough and Boro draw or lose well enough, we can go into the Boro game a bit more relaxed knowing a win isn't the only result we can get promoted with, so play a bit more freely.

 

[Triggaaar]

If we win v Derby, we can afford to draw v Boro

Probably not.

(and depending on margins, possibly lose against them, too).

Almost certainly not.

 

[TSB]

Ask Oneboro your inane question:

http://www.oneboro.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?tid=8039&page=33

 

[Acker79]

Probably not.
Almost certainly not.

As mentioned above, I forgot to add the proviso that was in my head about Boro losing/drawing v Birmingham.

 

[Triggaaar]

As mentioned above, I forgot to add the proviso that was in my head about Boro losing/drawing v Birmingham.

Ok.

 

[theonlymikey]

And that +4 would be wiped out with a two goal win for us. Which then goes to goals scored and we've scored 70, Boro have scored 60. So it isn't a lost cause. When Boro came to visit us, no team had beaten us. No team had scored more than two goals against us. They managed to get three. Scoring twice against them is not going to take something out of the ordinary. Put a tenner on us winning 2-0 v Boro on the final day, you're not going to get massively long odds, because the counter to their good goals conceded record is our 12 goals in 3 games.

NOTE - I said "at least" +4 GD. The emphasis was mainly based on Brighton having to do something that hasn't happened all season at the riverside. Score more than one goal.

But as stated - the deficit could easily be more.

Unless Burnley lose/draw both their games (remember this scenario involves us beating Derby).

Burnley wasn't mentioned in the Scenarios so didn't consider them in my responses. But yes. Potentially, If Burnley get heavily beaten enough in their last two, Boro and Brighton would be promoted with any combination of results.

But I think in my head I added the proviso that Boro would have to lose their game v Birmingham (and forgot to add that to the post) - if the margins in that hypothetical loss and our hypothetical win v Derby were wide enough, and the margin of our hypothetical loss to boro small enough. We could still be promoted irrespective of Burnley's results.

Yes this makes more sense as Boro/Birmingham result was not mentioned originally.

I would stress that all of the above is about possible results, not necessarily very likely results, and that it was more about how Boro's dropped points have opened up all these permutations. That now we won't have to be so tense when we go face Derby, we can go in trying to win, but not nervous that a loss would cost us. And should we win that game well enough and Boro draw or lose well enough, we can go into the Boro game a bit more relaxed knowing a win isn't the only result we can get promoted with, so play a bit more freely.

Agreed. I'm of opinion QPR will give Burnley (who have been poor) a very close game. Potentially leaving Boro/Brighton needing 1 point each for autos in the last game.

 

[drew]

On the positive side, it relieves the pressure on us.

We can afford to lose v Derby and still win promotion at Boro. If we win v Derby, we can afford to draw v Boro (and depending on margins, possibly lose against them, too).

If we lose by one goal to Derby and Boro only win by one goal we would need to beat them 2-0!!!!!



edit: Slight miscalculation on the goals front!!

 

[The Wizard]

T'feck have I just read

 

[Diablo]

Well I for one have never seen 'it' spelt as either loose or lose!

is it loos then, as in more than one toilet ?

 

[SeagullofMalaysia]

I know that many people totally disagree, but i can't help being really sad about todays results, because the results now mean two things:

1. Brighton can not secure promotion at the last home game against Derby. It would have been so great to secure the long waited promotion in front of 30 000 people at the Amex. Im sure that i am not the only one who has been dreaming that if the promotion happens one day....it will either happen at a sold out Wembley or sold out Amex Stadium. Now it might happen at Riverside Stadium in front of a few hundred Brighton-fans, and the Brighton-fans are even placed so that no cameras are able to record the celebrations if Brighton scores.......we only see Boro-fans behind the goal, no matter in which end the goals will come. Okay, this last thing is not the most important thing in the world, but let's remember that promotion-moment is a moment that we wan't to watch from video even years after...........we want everything to be perfect when the promotion happens. I know that it difficult to wish that Brighton would lose against Boro......but i also know that winning at Wembley would be something totally different than winning at the Riverside Stadium.


2. The second best scenario after Brighton securing promotion home against Derby would have been that Boro would already have secured their promotion before the last game, so that there would not be a need for any pitch invasion at the Riverside Stadium against Brighton, and that only Brighton and Burnley would have been fighting for that second promotion place during the last round......but the 0-0 game against Ipswich now means that Boro can not secure their promotion before the Brighton-game, and that means that all the Brighton-fans who travel to Middlesbrough might have to see Boro making history and Boro-fans making a pitch invasion after the game.

All you who now reply that my points are stupid...........don't go berserk when the Boro pitch invasion happens. I just wanted us to avoid that.....but now it's very close.

Didn't you know of our 1979 win up in Newcastle that sent us to Div. 1? Judging by your username, you seem to be close with Hopeless Hyppia....

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

I know that many people totally disagree, but i can't help being really sad about todays results, because the results now mean two things:

1. Brighton can not secure promotion at the last home game against Derby. It would have been so great to secure the long waited promotion in front of 30 000 people at the Amex. Im sure that i am not the only one who has been dreaming that if the promotion happens one day....it will either happen at a sold out Wembley or sold out Amex Stadium. Now it might happen at Riverside Stadium in front of a few hundred Brighton-fans, and the Brighton-fans are even placed so that no cameras are able to record the celebrations if Brighton scores.......we only see Boro-fans behind the goal, no matter in which end the goals will come. Okay, this last thing is not the most important thing in the world, but let's remember that promotion-moment is a moment that we wan't to watch from video even years after...........we want everything to be perfect when the promotion happens. I know that it difficult to wish that Brighton would lose against Boro......but i also know that winning at Wembley would be something totally different than winning at the Riverside Stadium.


2. The second best scenario after Brighton securing promotion home against Derby would have been that Boro would already have secured their promotion before the last game, so that there would not be a need for any pitch invasion at the Riverside Stadium against Brighton, and that only Brighton and Burnley would have been fighting for that second promotion place during the last round......but the 0-0 game against Ipswich now means that Boro can not secure their promotion before the Brighton-game, and that means that all the Brighton-fans who travel to Middlesbrough might have to see Boro making history and Boro-fans making a pitch invasion after the game.

All you who now reply that my points are stupid...........don't go berserk when the Boro pitch invasion happens. I just wanted us to avoid that.....but now it's very close.

Your points are stupid.

 

[Easy 10]

I've read some shit on here but this probably tops the lot.

Absolutely PERFECT summary. [MENTION=28964]litmanen[/MENTION] have a word with yourself. Jesus.

I have nothing more to add.

 

[OzMike]

Yes it was a good thing, would have been better had they lost though.

 

[KingKev]

Surely that's not correct. We can only afford to loose against Derby if others loose too.

Nope.
No scenario now where, at least prior to kick-off, the result of the Boro game is not critical to whether we finish in the top 2 or 3rd. The only way it would not be important to auto promotion looking back (I.e. after it ended) is if both us and Boro pick up points vs Brum / Rams and it turns out that Burnley lose their last 2....even then it would still prove to be the title decider whatever happens vs Brum/Rams.
So we can LOSE to Derby and still go up, maybe even as champions, regardless of what the other 2 do on Friday / Monday.

Bugga - looks like I now have to go to Boro.....get the map out Marshy!

 

[el punal]

Of course it's a good thing. Any team, that are our promotion rivals, who drop points is wonderful. Let's hope the trend continues.

 

[ClaretTintedSpecs]

NOTE - I said "at least" +4 GD. The emphasis was mainly based on Brighton having to do something that hasn't happened all season at the riverside. Score more than one goal.

But as stated - the deficit could easily be more.




Burnley wasn't mentioned in the Scenarios so didn't consider them in my responses. But yes. Potentially, If Burnley get heavily beaten enough in their last two, Boro and Brighton would be promoted with any combination of results.



Yes this makes more sense as Boro/Birmingham result was not mentioned originally.



Agreed. I'm of opinion QPR will give Burnley (who have been poor) a very close game. Potentially leaving Boro/Brighton needing 1 point each for autos in the last game.

Burnley have been poor? Really? I know you dislike Barton and Dyche and probably our style of football recently, but a team that are unbeaten in 21 can never be described as poor.

 

[Buzzer]

but a team that are unbeaten in 21 can never be described as poor.

Except of course Brighton at the beginning of the season. We went unbeaten for something like 23 games and a lot of rival fans..Burnley, Boro Weds, Hull amongst others all saying that we'd played most of our games at home, that we'd not played anyone decent, that because we were winning 1-0 that we were treading water, that we would crash and burn...that it would never last and we would fade into midtable obscurity.

 

[ClaretTintedSpecs]

Except of course Brighton at the beginning of the season. We went unbeaten for something like 23 games and a lot of rival fans..Burnley, Boro Weds, Hull amongst others all saying that we'd played most of our games at home, that we'd not played anyone decent, that because we were winning 1-0 that we were treading water, that we would crash and burn...that it would never last and we would fade into midtable obscurity.

It was 21, and 10 were draws, so nowhere near the point haul that we have had in our streak. Also, you were far from poor.