[News] US Election 2020

[Pavilionaire]

The way I see it Biden is odds-on to win the election with every bookmaker, albeit the margin is slim, and it is his to lose.

If he keeps his campaign error/gaffe-free I think he will edge it.

However, what will spice it up is the Vice-Presidential Debate on Oct 7th. Kamala Harris - black woman vs Mike Pence, a relatively safe pair of Republican hands after Trump. For me this is more interesting that the Presidential Debates. If she has a mare it could tip the scales in Trump's favour, but if she storms it then Biden will be empowered.

 

[Swansman]

The fat marionette or the thin marionette. We'll see who the oligarchs decided to go with.

 

[highflyer]

Polls aren’t accurate, though. Didn’t Hillary Clinton have a 90%+ chance of winning last time? And Brexit would lose according to the polls.

The only evidence will be on polling day in November. I think Trump will walk it for the reasons I gave above, but it’s a guess. I also think he’ll gain a lot more black votes. I’d personally be wry surprised if he lost, but time will tell.

Of course polls are not 100% accurate, but they are 'evidence' and for now they are what we have (apart from opinion based on our social media bubbles and personal prejudices). They are not just made up, and in general, while shocks do occur, it is rare that polls are a million miles off.

Clinton was ahead, but not in as strong a position as Biden is at this point. She lost a lot of ground in the last two months and still came close, winning the popular vote and only falling just short on a few results in key swing states. The key indicator I think at the moment is the very low number of people saying they are 'persuadable' compared to the past. Biden is doing better in terms of white, male, non-college educated, older voters which indicates he's starting to erode Trumps base (on which he relies) - the analysis I link to does indicate that Biden may lose some black votes, but not many.

None of this is to say I think Biden will definitely win, just that it won't be a shock if he does.

From my 'bubble' perspective the very few (moderate) republicans I know held their noses and voted Trump last time, but have said they can't bring themselves to do so again. I doubt they will vote for Biden. Most probably they will just not vote at all.

 

[The_Viper]

Tell all the people that are losing their livelihoods and homes due to riots and protests between political enemies that it's riveting stuff. Sounds more like life destroying stuff. It's going to get really, really nasty before this is all said and done, both the democrats and the republicans at their most extreme are showing pretty major fascist tendencies.

 

[thedonkeycentrehalf]

MODS - Grammar mistake in the title


It should read "Russian Fixed US Election 2020"

Corrected for you (According to the conspiracy theorists)

 

[Giraffe]

Trump will win. Biden is a very weak candidate.

Would really like to see Michelle Obama put her hat in the ring next time. She would walk it. Disappointing she didn't do it this time.

 

[Baker lite]

I don't know where you are getting your information, but a Biden win would really NOT be a shock result.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ikely-voters-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN2601DT

Mr Baker Lite I know is looking at it all through his racist-tinted glasses, so his certainty of a Trump win is no surprise.

Obviously there is built in unpredictability. But Biden is some way ahead in many swing states (I mean even TEXAS is apparenty 'too close to call') and it seems that, with politics so polarized, the polls are now finding fewer and fewer people are left 'undecided' (the danger of telling people they have to 'pick a side' I guess). So the likelihood of a major late swing is potentially smaller than usual with two months to go. Although of course that has to be balanced against the entirely unprecedented context (having an orange idiot racist in charge and failing to manage a pandemic - really not normal)

So, who knows, but I am genuinely interested in what evidence there is to makeyou think that Trump is likely to win?

Cards on the table, I couldn’t give a blind cobblers **** who wins, doesn’t have any influence on the way I live and work who wins.
It is my opinion that Trump will win doing hand stands, as I said,could not give a bollox.
Now for the part where you highlight racism on my behalf.


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[Eeyore]

To paraphrase Simon Jordan, whilst I don't have a dog in this fight, the next three months are going to be riveting stuff seeing Trump and Biden go head to head.

With (Crooked sic D J Trump) Hilary already stating publicly on no account should Biden concede to Trump on election night, does this mean that there will be a prolonged saga before they get a definitive result, that or the Second American Civil War?

That's both then, I think. I'm sure Trump said something similar.

Watching events over the pond is something of utter bewilderment these days.

 

[NooBHA]

Cards on the table, I couldn’t give a blind cobblers **** who wins, doesn’t have any influence on the way I live and work who wins.
It is my opinion that Trump will win doing hand stands, as I said,could not give a bollox.
Now for the part where you highlight racism on my behalf.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yes it absolutely makes a difference how you live and work

We have a Leader here in the UK who is mirroring the Actions of Trump - We saw that by the way that he stood by Dominic Cummings and rode ''rough shod'' over Public Opinion'' and Holding Ministers and Public Officers Accountable for their Actions. The same is happening with the threats to virtually tear up Pre-Agreed deals over Northern Ireland and Trade during Brexit.

If Donald Trump wins and his style of Politics is seen as a ''go ahead'' by Voters in the US that you can do what you want and that people are too stupid to do anything about it - Then it will be virtually guaranteed that Boris Johnson will see that as a Mandate that he can do whatever he wants and and never be held accountable for his actions. We will get even more of the same in this Country.

So this Election coming up in the US matters more than any other Election in history - Dismiss it at your Peril.

 

[NooBHA]

Trump will win. Biden is a very weak candidate.

Would really like to see Michelle Obama put her hat in the ring next time. She would walk it. Disappointing she didn't do it this time.

I would prefer to see Bryan Stevenson run for Public Office and then eventually for the Presidency - I doubt that he will because he values his other work more. The only thing that holds me back in hoping for that is. I would worry that Bryan would be Assassinated by some lunatic if he held Public Office.

 

[Juan Albion]

Interesting tapes just released of Trump talking to Bob Woodward about how dangerous the virus is back in February/March - about the time he made out it was nothing and would soon disappear. His only defence is to say he didn't want the public to panic, which is a pretty awful argument.

Basically we now have a sitting president who admits he looked the American people in the eye and lied to them time and time again. It also suggests he thinks the American people are weaker and easier to scare than the rest of the world.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

This is an election of identity politics. It's who can point out best the absurdity of their opposition.

This is what plays into Trumps hands and gives him a chance of being re-elected when he should have none.

A lot of Americans won't want their cities to turn into Portland or Seattle and the Democrats woeful response to all the violence and hate towards the Police will scare the shit out of a lot of people.

The left are wining the absurdity stakes in a time when they just needed to act normal to trounce Trump.

 

[BN41Albion]

Interesting tapes just released of Trump talking to Bob Woodward about how dangerous the virus is back in February/March - about the time he made out it was nothing and would soon disappear. His only defence is to say he didn't want the public to panic, which is a pretty awful argument.

Basically we now have a sitting president who admits he looked the American people in the eye and lied to them time and time again. It also suggests he thinks the American people are weaker and easier to scare than the rest of the world.

He'll still get re-elected I'm sure!

 

[nwgull]

Polls aren’t accurate, though. Didn’t Hillary Clinton have a 90%+ chance of winning last time? And Brexit would lose according to the polls.

The only evidence will be on polling day in November. I think Trump will walk it for the reasons I gave above, but it’s a guess. I also think he’ll gain a lot more black votes. I’d personally be wry surprised if he lost, but time will tell.

The National polls weren’t that far off for Hillary. They said she’d win the popular vote by a couple of percent and she did. Where the polls got it wrong was at state level in underestimating turnout from particular demographics.

Polls will always have a margin of error, particularly for small sample sizes, but they’re constantly evolving to correct previous errors. And Biden is much further ahead at this stage than Hilary both nationally and in the swing states; it’s basically his election to lose right now.

 

[highflyer]

This is an election of identity politics. It's who can point out best the absurdity of their opposition.

This is what plays into Trumps hands and gives him a chance of being re-elected when he should have none.

A lot of Americans won't want their cities to turn into Portland or Seattle and the Democrats woeful response to all the violence and hate towards the Police will scare the shit out of a lot of people.

The left are wining the absurdity stakes in a time when they just needed to act normal to trounce Trump.

Somewhat to my surprise I sort of agree with you, at least up to a point.

The left have won the economic argument. Or more accurately, the right have lost it. People no longer widely believe in free market, trickle-down ideologies because they are seeing for themselves that it is bullsh*t. They know it isn't working for them, and they are increasingly angry about levels of inequality and the way that the economic elite and big corporations behave. Trump managed to tap into that for the last election, pretending to be anti-elitist and getting away with it. That mask has slipped a bit since then.

So Trump's (like Cummings') best hope is to shift the battleground to a culture war and hope that if he can build enough fear, and then push a 'law and order' agenda his base will go with him.

I personally have absolute sympathy with the aims of BLM, and understand the anger and frustration it represents. Longer term you cannot ignore the rise of a very nasty strand of the far right in the US. But politically, right now, they are playing into Trumps hands (and Cumming's hands in the UK). Trump is deliberately stirring and people are reacting exactly as he hoped.. Hard headed tactics would be to fight the election on the grounds of competence in dealing with the pandemic + economics and bring the discussion on racism back to the mainstream after November.

 

[highflyer]

duplicate post

 

[knocky1]

The betting odds here have Biden slight favourite and Trump on evens. Meaningless,however, as UK punters only. Betting on elections banned in US.

Can we stop hearing Trump is the favourite at the Bookies?

 

[Goldstone1976]

You can get a 2% return in a couple of months on Betfair betting that the winner will be male. Go large.

 

[knocky1]

You can get a 2% return in a couple of months on Betfair betting that the winner will be male. Go large.

There’s only one winner...larger than large.

 

[portslade seagull]

Whoever wins neither are strong enough to pull the rug from the Gun lobby. That would save many lives