UK wasnt in a Double Dip Recession End of 2011 early 2012

[KingstonSeagull]

I bet 90% of people in this country couldn't even define what a recession is...

 

[Albion Dan]

is that like your prediction of a house price crash? i'm putting you along side Uncle Speilberg as a reliable signal to bet against

No not a house price crash. Western government debt is way beyond a point where it can ever be serviced and welfare costs are way above sustainable levels but more people are becoming unemployed. The whole lot will come tumbling down eventually. Im just saying be prepared.

 

[Silent Bob]

Is there a special "Department For Snatching Numbers Out Of The Air" now?

Yes, it's called the OBR.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

The wife deals with this stuff, and I think we still have 2 years on the current one. I'll ask her later and P.M you if that's ok.

Happy to help.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I bet 90% of people in this country couldn't even define what a recession is...

There have been some horrendous losers but also a lot of winners that is for sure.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

No not a house price crash. Western government debt is way beyond a point where it can ever be serviced and welfare costs are way above sustainable levels but more people are becoming unemployed. The whole lot will come tumbling down eventually. Im just saying be prepared.

But what preparation can we take as individuals ?

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

The whole capitalism model has been smashed almost beyond repair.. It will take decades to correct the last 5-6 years. Maybe the Russians had it right after all ?

 

[Chicken Run]

No not a house price crash. Western government debt is way beyond a point where it can ever be serviced and welfare costs are way above sustainable levels but more people are becoming unemployed. The whole lot will come tumbling down eventually. Im just saying be prepared.

Dan, seriously mate and by all means bounce me, but the above is what the doom merchants were saying in 2009.....

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Dan, seriously mate and by all means bounce me, but the above is what the doom merchants were saying in 2009.....

And the trouble is it is no better now 4 years on. The facts are 2% of people are very very rich, 10% are well off, the rest either work their nuts off to scrape by or don't even scrape by and that is what the capitalism model has given us, sure I participate in it but you have to earn a living. I strongly think anyone with over £ 2m should have their assets seized and redistributed to the needy. Why should a footballer earn 10 x a week what a nurse earns in a year ? Why should Saatchi sit on £ 130m when far more worthy individuals starve ? The whole system is pretty much scandalous when you think about it.

 

[beorhthelm]

Maybe the Russians had it right after all ?

when they went for communism, or when they replaced it with capitialism?

 

[dragonred]

I know my chosen field inside out. What worries me about interest rates is that people have become accustomed to an unrealistically low rate on their mortgage now. That is what happens when the BBR stays at 0.5% for 51 months. A lot of people were paying 5-6% on their mortgage rate in 2007/2008 and budgetted on this but all the thousands they have saved has generally not been put towards their mortgage. For millions of people they have saved thousands - tens of thousands of pounds and only today someone called me who has been paying 1% since 2008 and pays £ 130 pm on a £ 160000 mortgage and was paying £ 650 pm before 2008. People have taken on extra outgoings and commitments assuming BBR will stay at 0.5% forever. I think however BBR will remain around 0.5% for another 2-3 years yet.

spot on this - we will have (are having the start of) a mini property boom again for next few years due to low interest rates which generates a 'positive feelgood factor' into next election - banks are lending for property especially in the South, here in the City there is definitely more confidence- and then once election over the rates will slowly rise again. To be fair 0.5% is needed or else a lot of people and businesses would already be doomed but I can't help but feel there is trouble being stored up here and when one party has to raise, which inevitably they will have to at some point, watch the fallout from that!

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

when they went for communism, or when they replaced it with capitialism?

Communism !

 

[Kosmonaut]

Dan, seriously mate and by all means bounce me, but the above is what the doom merchants were saying in 2009.....

Make that pretty much every 5 years for the last number of decades, I have a background in econ and there is a certain.. popular (on the internet) but highly discredited school of thought that predicts this stuff all the time - they were more vocal over the last 5 years when they were adamant that QE would cause hyperinflation back in late 2008, then QE2 would do the same, and then QE3 would do the same, but it never did - in fact almost the opposite happened, because their model is flawed. The fact is, UK debt has been far far higher than it is currently in terms of percentage of GDP, and interest rates can effectively remain low for as long as the BoE wants them to because we do not live in a fixed exchange rate regime and nobody can ever corner the BoE, the only situation causing interest rates to rise would be a massive surge in demand, but if that were to occur the economy would be growing much faster, mitigating the negative effect of a rise in interest rates.

 

[Kosmonaut]

Communism !

Russian style? Perhaps if you enjoy 3 hour long queues for a loaf of bread, total lack of consumer choice in anything, occasional famine and a trip to the gulags for any negative thoughts expressed about the regime.

 

[GreersElbow]

The real fun will start when Interest Rates move upwards. Hold tight!

Greek style!

What a load of waffle. The economy has flatlined, unemployment is high and hundreds of thousands rely on food banks. The darling economy you speak of won't go anywhere if people have nothing to spend. Capitalism relies on spending. It's called demand, and there ain't any of that right now. Austerity is eating itself alive.

What austerity, spending and borrowing is still increasing.

I bet 90% of people in this country couldn't even define what a recession is...

Recessions aren't universally agreed, the U.S has a different definition to Europe.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

And the trouble is it is no better now 4 years on. The facts are 2% of people are very very rich, 10% are well off, the rest either work their nuts off to scrape by or don't even scrape by and that is what the capitalism model has given us, sure I participate in it but you have to earn a living. I strongly think anyone with over £ 2m should have their assets seized and redistributed to the needy. Why should a footballer earn 10 x a week what a nurse earns in a year ? Why should Saatchi sit on £ 130m when far more worthy individuals starve ? The whole system is pretty much scandalous when you think about it.

What about the people with over £2m that have actually worked for it ? I exclude footballers from that group !

 

[Meade's Ball]

But what preparation can we take as individuals ?

Live faster. If i could fit my remaining 50 years into 5, then i'd go for it. That would be one hell of an Eastenders omnibus to sit through.

 

[Stumpy Tim]

I've got my mortgage coming up in November, and will probably go for an offset account, interest only - and if possible squeeze an extra £50k out for an extension I want to do. I'm very wary of fixed mortgages, especially right now as I think we'll have low interest rates for a while. It seems that as long as I have the 25% I should get a decent deal. Hope so anyway

 

[BHAZiggy]

Is there a special "Department For Snatching Numbers Out Of The Air" now?

We don't need one. We can just quote anything from The Sun or The Mirror for that.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I've got my mortgage coming up in November, and will probably go for an offset account, interest only - and if possible squeeze an extra £50k out for an extension I want to do. I'm very wary of fixed mortgages, especially right now as I think we'll have low interest rates for a while. It seems that as long as I have the 25% I should get a decent deal. Hope so anyway

Try the Coventry Building Society, Tim.