GingerBeerMan
3-0
- Dec 29, 2011
- 8,205
Sanders polls better vs trump. If Sanders gets the nomination it reduces the chance of a trump administration. Sadly, it seems this will now only be possible if Hillary is indicted.
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Trump-v-Sanders ?
- Thread starter Leekbrookgull
- Start date
I don't understand the obsession we have with all things america.Everything that happens there is headline news here.When there is an election there is as much coverage in our media as when there is a UK election.Strange.
Having said that I am sooooo looking forward to watching Trump v Clinton.I want Trump to demolish her but if the US vote him in then God help them.
Having said that I am sooooo looking forward to watching Trump v Clinton.I want Trump to demolish her but if the US vote him in then God help them.
Stato
Well-known member
- Dec 21, 2011
- 7,377
Clinton is personally unpopular, but she is not as personally unpopular as Trump.
She is divisive, but not as divisive as Trump.
The recent polls showing her lead over Trump a lot closer are national polls, not polling in the swing states. Clinton is doing much better in more of the swing states.
Sanders is popular with the young, but he is not as popular as Clinton with ethnic minorities.
The GOP has now aligned behind Trump and this has given him a boost in his poll numbers. The Democrats will do the same once Clinton wins the nomination, and she'll get the same bounce; even more so if she picks a running mate who is liked by Sanders supporters.
Trumps numbers amongst women, and hispanic and black people are far worse than Romney's were. It was received wisdom that Romney couldn't beat Obama, because he couldn't get enough of these votes. Trump will fare worse.
It may get a little more interesting because Trump has celebrity on his side, but I am expecting him to go the same way as Goldwater. He'll get trounced.
She is divisive, but not as divisive as Trump.
The recent polls showing her lead over Trump a lot closer are national polls, not polling in the swing states. Clinton is doing much better in more of the swing states.
Sanders is popular with the young, but he is not as popular as Clinton with ethnic minorities.
The GOP has now aligned behind Trump and this has given him a boost in his poll numbers. The Democrats will do the same once Clinton wins the nomination, and she'll get the same bounce; even more so if she picks a running mate who is liked by Sanders supporters.
Trumps numbers amongst women, and hispanic and black people are far worse than Romney's were. It was received wisdom that Romney couldn't beat Obama, because he couldn't get enough of these votes. Trump will fare worse.
It may get a little more interesting because Trump has celebrity on his side, but I am expecting him to go the same way as Goldwater. He'll get trounced.
Gullflyinghigh
Registered User
- Apr 23, 2012
- 4,279
A large proportion will because of his 'say it how it is' persona, as if blunt speaking is somehow an indication of ability or trustworthiness.
I find it more baffling that his supporters seem to have no concerns with his tendency to flip on a number of core issues and, in some cases, laud it as the sign of a man willing to listen (in itself not actually a bad thing). If any other politician does the same they're considered either liars or weak.
I guess as people can justify it to themselves, regardless of how mental it might seem to the outside, then nothing else really matters.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,027
you seriously think moderate Americans will come for a raving commie (by their metrics)? Trump will change his views to shift to the centre ground, he's already started (there will be a wall, but we might let through taco chefs), while Sanders will stick to principles and rely on a small proportion of the Democrats.
Was not Was
Loitering with intent
- Jul 31, 2003
- 1,607
Yes. With bells on. At least, that is what the polls have been saying for a long time: that Sanders will do better that Clinton vs Trump.
Trump v Sanders: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html
Trump v Clinton: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
From what I can tell, it's now such a received wisdom in the USA that there are now opinion pieces on whether it would really pan out: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/24/u...-trump-wouldnt-be-prudent-to-assume-that.html
brightn'ove
cringe
What I do not understand about these polls is that are they really saying that the very same people who would vote for a SELF IDENTIFIED socialist, would vote for DONALD TRUMP in the case that Hilary Clinton won the nomination. I can't see it myself.
Personally I think that if they did a poll of people planning to vote Sanders at the election and asked them who they would vote for if Hilary won the nomination, it would come out 100% in favour of Hilary. What kind of maniac would vote for Bernie Sanders one day and then vote for Trump the next - they are literally opposite ends of the spectrum.
GingerBeerMan
3-0
- Dec 29, 2011
- 8,205
Here you have two factors:
Those who identify with Trump more than Hilary. These are mainly the ones who are left-leaning and are voting for Sanders due to his 'anti-establishment' credentials. E.g. less corruption and more punishment for big banks. These people are drawn to Trump because they don't like how much Clinton is paid by big-buisness and how much she represents them. Trump apparently stands against this.
The second group are those Sanders supporters who won't vote for anyone (or will vote green party) if Sanders isn't the nominee. They dislike Clinton either because she is too far to the right, too much representing the 'establishment' or too untrustworthy. This is a non-minor number of Sanders supports, I think I read a stat that said 30% of those who voted for Sanders wouldn't vote for Clinton as they didn't like her. With the FBI case hanging over her, it's not as clear cut as many in the UK believe it is.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,027
i really struggle how anyone can see him this way when he is big business. not saying this isn't the case, just don't get it myself. they are a weird bunch over there.
Randsta
New member
Here's the debate you all want to see Trump Vs Sanders
Peter Grummit
Well-known member
These are interesting factors but I can't help thinking the position of the first group in particular may change if Clinton gets the nomination.
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brightn'ove
cringe
Point 1) I genuinely don't believe there are any 'left-leaning' people that would be willing to vote for Trump, he is the antithesis of everything left, he is neo-fascist.
Point 2) I know Americans have a bad reputation, but surely they aren't that stupid. When it comes to election day, I can see a lot of people that are upset about Bernie losing the nomination sucking it up and voting for Hilary because the other option is truly horrifying.
severnside gull
Well-known member
A cabbie in Chicago recently described Trump to me as a "pretty liberal underneath it all" while decrying Clinton's prospects. - ain't no woman ever gonna be president".
A cabbie in Chicago recently described Trump to me as a "pretty liberal underneath it all" while decrying Clinton's prospects. - ain't no woman ever gonna be president".
Pretty sure many said the same about a black man running the US
John Bumlick
Banned
You don't know as much about US politics as you think you do.
The majority of Clinton haters are the Republicans who would vote for Trump anyway and polls show (yeah, I know but it's not even close) that the Trump candidacy will scare more than enough Democrats/liberals/not completely insane conservatives to the voting booths.
Also, surprisingly, dumb fvcks are a minority in the US. A large minority, but a minority nonetheless.
Gazwag
5 millionth post poster
Trump might not run anything but they can't control what comes out of his mouth which is the real danger
GingerBeerMan
3-0
- Dec 29, 2011
- 8,205
I totally agree. A billionaire who has been playing the establishment for his own gain for years is now running on the belief he will help the 'little people' and fight the establishment. It seems surreal and bizarre at this point, I mean, if you wrote this in a play no-one would call it realistic.
From my experience in America and talking to voters online, America is a bit weird when it comes to politics. The 'left' and 'right' aren't really clearly defined like they are in Europe and especially the UK. There is a lot of crossover on views, so someone who calls themselves liberal and wants free healthcare can also think immigration is too high and want a tougher stance on immigration. It's really not that uncommon over there and it's hardly surprising given how much illegal immigrants are lambasted in the news whenever a crime is committed by one. Even liberal people thinks a stand needs to be taken to fight the influx of Latin Americans.
On top of this, I don't think Trump is as right wing as you think he is. In the UK he's only reported about when he says something outlanding (woman punished for abortions, building a 30ft wall, banning all Muslims etc), but I've watched most of his debates and a lot of his policies are quite liberal, especially when compared to the nutjobs like Cruz, Rubio and Fiorina. Trump wants to move towards a completely free healthcare system, he has said outright he would never use nukes to defeat ISIS, he says Russia is a great country that America will work towards more diplomatic relations with etc. Now Trump is the Republican nominee you can expect to see him move even more towards the center to appeal to Sander voters who won't vote for Hillary, and any undecided voters. Watch his debate vs. Sander and I expect him to be cordial and agreeable to Sanders to try and win over his support. I still don't think Trump can win (God help us), but a lot of people in the UK seem to misunderstand his appeal and how he might have a chance of winning in November.