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[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...



Jul 20, 2003
20,705




A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,585
Deepest, darkest Sussex
The polling got the Brexit vote spectacularly wrong...
People keep saying this, but it simply isn’t true. While most polling predicted a narrow Remain win it was tight and within the margin of error, and it clearly showed the polls tighten over the weeks leading up to the vote.
 


TomandJerry

Well-known member
Oct 1, 2013
12,323
People keep saying this, but it simply isn’t true. While most polling predicted a narrow Remain win it was tight and within the margin of error, and it clearly showed the polls tighten over the weeks leading up to the vote.
The bookies definitely had odds on Remain

"Bookies said that with just a few days to go until the vote betting has swung behind remain.

On Monday William Hill cut their odds for remain twice, as they went from 4/11 to 1/3 and then to 2/7 (a 77% chance), while leave was lengthened twice, from 11/5 to 9/4, then to 13/5 (a 27% chance).

While Betfair also placed the odds for remain at 2/7 – the best since May – while Brexit odds have drifted to 7/2, equivalent to a 22% chance.

Betfair spokeswoman Naomi Totten said: “With just three days left until the vote the Betfair market momentum is now all behind remain, which was backed as low as 1/5 this morning, with one customer backing it to the tune of £100k."
 


Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,289
Cumbria
People keep saying this, but it simply isn’t true. While most polling predicted a narrow Remain win it was tight and within the margin of error, and it clearly showed the polls tighten over the weeks leading up to the vote.

Full details. The ones just before the election were all pretty much hardening up for remain. But, a small percentage swing in the margin of error was enough.
 






A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,585
Deepest, darkest Sussex
The bookies definitely had odds on Remain

"Bookies said that with just a few days to go until the vote betting has swung behind remain.

On Monday William Hill cut their odds for remain twice, as they went from 4/11 to 1/3 and then to 2/7 (a 77% chance), while leave was lengthened twice, from 11/5 to 9/4, then to 13/5 (a 27% chance).

While Betfair also placed the odds for remain at 2/7 – the best since May – while Brexit odds have drifted to 7/2, equivalent to a 22% chance.

Betfair spokeswoman Naomi Totten said: “With just three days left until the vote the Betfair market momentum is now all behind remain, which was backed as low as 1/5 this morning, with one customer backing it to the tune of £100k."
The bookies don’t run the opinion polls.
 


Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,289
Cumbria








Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
23,702
Brighton
James Cleverly, the home secretary, spent £165,561 chartering a private jet for a one-day round trip to Rwanda to sign Rishi Sunak’s deportation deal in Kigali.

The trip took place on 4 December to sign the new deal with the east African state after the supreme court’s finding that Rwanda was an “unsafe country”.
This is not unusual.

Truss chartered a plane to Australia to sign the ‘world leading’ and also British farmer-f***ing trade deal. Flight was £454,626 and she and her 11 person entourage got through £15k+ worth of refreshments on that flight at our expense. Bet it wasn’t British ham sandwiches!

 






The Clamp

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 11, 2016
26,210
West is BEST


Nobby Cybergoat

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2021
8,634
This should have people in the streets.

But what do we all do?

We tut.
I suppose the upside, as Rees Mogg helpfully revealed, is that the tory plan was as bungled as it was malign.

Lot's of elderly don't have passports or driving licence. And swathes of wealthy elderly who still plan to vote tory have no need for a bus pass and are largely outside London.

Their plan was poorly thought through. I still want Labour to bin the abomination of voter ID requirements on day 1 though
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
27,791








nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,593
Gods country fortnightly
This should have people in the streets.

But what do we all do?

We tut.
We're pretty apathetic nation really. Our poorest 20% are now poorer than the poorest 20% in Poland. Been a good time for Tory chums and donors though
 


Chicken Run

Member Since Jul 2003
NSC Patron
Jul 17, 2003
19,826
Valley of Hangleton
We're pretty apathetic nation really. Our poorest 20% are now poorer than the poorest 20% in Poland. Been a good time for Tory chums and donors though
Indeed and if NSC is anything to by many of these ‘Poorest’ seemingly get a bashing from from many of our fine apparent working class Labour Voters for no other reason than the way they dress and daring to take their children to Mcdonald’s😉
 






TomandJerry

Well-known member
Oct 1, 2013
12,323
Two Tory ministers have quit the government in a double blow to Rishi Sunak, who will now be forced to carry out a mini-reshuffle of the junior ranks.

Veteran MP Robert Halfon unexpectedly announced he would step down as education minister and would be leaving the Commons at the next general election.


Armed forces minister James Heappey, who had already said that he planned to go, confirmed he had left his role at the Ministry of Defence in advance of standing down.
 


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