[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Swansman]

Interesting to see what happens tonight, is there any chance he will be voted out you think?

I wrote in this thread, with many face palms and comments about what the English accept and doesn't accept, that "partygate" would not be enough for you to get rid of this man (you have to take the streets)... if there are no mechanisms or desire to get rid of the guy when he is pretty much openly corrupt (the PPE contracts thing), its just sort of hard to think exactly what he needs to do to be thrown out.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Another letter has gone in this morning, Jesse Norman, MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire.

This letter is a brilliant summary of all the issues with Boris. And also why, even though I want the Tories to lose the next election, and they're more likely to do so with Boris as leader, changing the prime minister as soon as possible is in everyone's interest in this nation.

 

[TomandJerry]

No one can say the warnings back in 2019 were unclear...... worth recalling....
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Surely David Cameron takes the biscuit for allowing the EU referendum?

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[Papa Lazarou]

Interesting to see what happens tonight, is there any chance he will be voted out you think?

I wrote in this thread, with many face palms and comments about what the English accept and doesn't accept, that "partygate" would not be enough for you to get rid of this man (you have to take the streets)... if there are no mechanisms or desire to get rid of the guy when he is pretty much openly corrupt (the PPE contracts thing), its just sort of hard to think exactly what he needs to do to be thrown out.

I'd say he'll survive this, further lowering the Tory poll numbers. Following the 2 By-Election (defeats) there will be a 2nd attempt to unseat him, which will succeed.

 

[A1X]

He'll win, Dorries will be out on Breakfast tomorrow banging on about moving on and "getting behind him" and the steady descent into crisis will continue unabated.

No chance he resigns. They'll have to go full Ceaușescu to get him out.

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

It somehow feels like a cheap publicity stunt where the outcome is already known

 

[Bry Nylon]

commented on radio this morning, there is no organiser or coordination. this on one hand makes it organic as you say, on the other hand probably weak rebellion. unless something drastically happend today Johnson will probably limp on. it what he does, get away with it.

This is the fascinating thing as nobody is coordinating the 'anti-Johnson' vote making it impossible to get a handle on how things currently stand. If we assume the number of letters is just above the threshold required and those who submitted them go on to vote 'no confidence' tonight - that's around 60 votes in the bag. So that means just 120-ish more 'no confidence' votes required.

But if there has been a flurry of letters over the weekend then the number of additional rebels required this evening becomes potentially far fewer. With nobody able to calibrate the current size of the rebellion it is a very interesting political calculation that Tory MPs are going to have to make when deciding how to cast their vote.

 

[Swansman]

This is the fascinating thing as nobody is coordinating the 'anti-Johnson' vote making it impossible to get a handle on how things currently stand. If we assume the number of letters is just above the threshold required and those who submitted them go on to vote 'no confidence' tonight - that's around 60 votes in the bag. So that means just 120-ish more 'no confidence' votes required.

But if there has been a flurry of letters over the weekend then the number of additional rebels required this evening becomes potentially far fewer. With nobody able to calibrate the current size of the rebellion it is a very interesting political calculation that Tory MPs are going to have to make when deciding how to cast their vote.

Are the votes public? Can you see what each individual vote for?

 

[darkwolf666]

This letter is a brilliant summary of all the issues with Boris. And also why, even though I want the Tories to lose the next election, and they're more likely to do so with Boris as leader, changing the prime minister as soon as possible is in everyone's interest in this nation.

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I had read that letter and thought sentiments like that shown should be the political death of Boris Johnson, unfortunately with the way our old boy school tie system works, it's more likely the political death of the writer!

Good for him for writing it though...

 

[Thunder Bolt]

https://twitter.com/Jesse_Norman/st...on-confidence-vote-graham-brady-tory-mps-live

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That deserves to be read by those who don't have Twitter. It certainly sums up my feelings.

[tweet]1533699235417403393[/tweet]

 

[pb21]

This letter is a brilliant summary of all the issues with Boris. And also why, even though I want the Tories to lose the next election, and they're more likely to do so with Boris as leader, changing the prime minister as soon as possible is in everyone's interest in this nation.

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This letter absolutely nails it doesn't it, and I agree with what you say that it's in everyone's interest that he goes, now.

 

[drew]

This letter is a brilliant summary of all the issues with Boris. And also why, even though I want the Tories to lose the next election, and they're more likely to do so with Boris as leader, changing the prime minister as soon as possible is in everyone's interest in this nation.

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Bizarrely, bearing in mind we are supporting Ukraine in a war against Russia, there is no mention of blocking the Russia Report into that foreign powers alleged interventions in our democratic process. No mention of suppressing the intelligence service investigations into Lebedev before giving him a seat in the Lords and no mention of the oligarch money financing many Tory members!

 

[happypig]

Are the votes public? Can you see what each individual vote for?

No. It's a secret ballot.

My money* is on him losing by one vote after Dominic Raab ticks the wrong box.



*it isn't really

 

[Bry Nylon]

Are the votes public? Can you see what each individual vote for?

No. It is a secret ballot.

 

[TomandJerry]

No. It's a secret ballot.

My money* is on him losing by one vote after Dominic Raab ticks the wrong box.



*it isn't really

I would be absolutely shocked if he loses the vote tonight, absolutely shocked.

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[Fungus]

He'll have engineered the best time for this to happen. He knew it was coming, he'll breeze through it I suspect.

How could he "engineer the best time", if it's triggered by the number of letters?

 

[TomandJerry]

How could he "engineer the best time", if it's triggered by the number of letters?

Because it's happening before potentially losing the two by elections coming up by a large swing margin

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[vegster]

This letter is a brilliant summary of all the issues with Boris. And also why, even though I want the Tories to lose the next election, and they're more likely to do so with Boris as leader, changing the prime minister as soon as possible is in everyone's interest in this nation.

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I remember the promise " To Build a new Nuclear power station a year " when it came up from Johnson at PMQ's.....quite incredulous really and he should have been pulled up on it. As we know, it takes many years to build and commission one and, if one could actually be built in a year, how safe would that be ?

 

[Bold Seagull]

How could he "engineer the best time", if it's triggered by the number of letters?

If there are 50 letters he actually asks 4 MPs to write 4 more. Not exactly difficult.

 

[Bry Nylon]

I remember the promise " To Build a new Nuclear power station a year " when it came up from Johnson at PMQ's.....quite incredulous really and he should have been pulled up on it. As we know, it takes many years to build and commission one and, if one could actually be built in a year, how safe would that be ?

I was reading something over the weekend that quite a few Tory MPs are deeply frustrated regarding the "build and fund 40 new hospitals over the next 10 years" pledge that Johnson made at the last election because when they enquire regarding progress it appears the process has yet to start.

Its almost as if he 'just made it up'...