[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Audax]

It needs a two thirds majority to call an election, it's no longer in the gift of the PM. No way would Labour agree whilst settling in a new leader.

Didn't that get changed recently? The 5 year fixed term is no longer a thing.

Edit: yep, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act was repealed. We are back to the old way: the PM can, at any time, request a GE of the Queen. In practice, the Queen is never going to refuse so the choice of when a GE takes place is back in the hands of the PM.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

A plausible scenario is the letters are already in, but Johnson will scrape through in a leadership vote.

If that happens I think we will have an election much earlier than we thought. Can't see the Tories hanging on with a damaged leader and an election may just force them to get a plan together.

The Conservatives will fight the election with the threat the Union Kingdom will break up.

If Starmer is forced to resign, then all bets are off. I have no idea.

The Tories don’t want Starmer to resign, if he’s walked it means he’s done the right thing and the pressures back on Johnson

 

[Machiavelli]

]A plausible scenario is the letters are already in[/B], but Johnson will scrape through in a leadership vote.

If that happens I think we will have an election much earlier than we thought. Can't see the Tories hanging on with a damaged leader and an election may just force them to get a plan together.

The Conservatives will fight the election with the threat the Union Kingdom will break up.

If Starmer is forced to resign, then all bets are off. I have no idea.

Implausible to me: once the threshold of 54 letters is reached, then the chair of the 1922 announces it.

 

[Audax]

Implausible to me: once the threshold of 54 letters is reached, then the chair of the 1922 announces it.

The Chair has some discretion over the timing of the announcement. There were credible reports last night that the 54 has been reached, but that because Parliament is in recess this week, and the Jubilee weekend is coming up, that the 1922 Chair will wait until next week to announce it.

No idea how accurate those reports were - there were equally credible reports in the press that the 54 threshold hasn't been reached yet (but that it's creeping closer).

 

[happypig]

Didn't that get changed recently? The 5 year fixed term is no longer a thing.

Edit: yep, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act was repealed. We are back to the old way: the PM can, at any time, request a GE of the Queen. In practice, the Queen is never going to refuse so the choice of when a GE takes place is back in the hands of the PM.

Crikey, I completely missed that.

So, in theory, if Johnson gets booted out by his own MPs he could, before he goes, call an election.

 

[Audax]

Crikey, I completely missed that.

So, in theory, if Johnson gets booted out by his own MPs he could, before he goes, call an election.

In theory, yes.

 

[TomandJerry]

The former minister Andrea Leadsom has criticised Boris Johnson’s “unacceptable failings of leadership” following the publication of the Sue Gray report.

In a letter to her constituents, published on social media, Leadsom said she believed it was “extremely unlikely that senior leaders were unaware of what was going on”.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

 

[Machiavelli]

The Chair has some discretion over the timing of the announcement. There were credible reports last night that the 54 has been reached, but that because Parliament is in recess this week, and the Jubilee weekend is coming up, that the 1922 Chair will wait until next week to announce it.

No idea how accurate those reports were - there were equally credible reports in the press that the 54 threshold hasn't been reached yet (but that it's creeping closer).

What's your evidence for the discretion of the chair of the 1922?

 

[clapham_gull]

What's your evidence for the discretion of the chair of the 1922?

It's been widely reported.

He is also expected to tell the PM first, but there are no rules for him to do so.

 

[Flex Your Head]

It's one thing for an MP to say nothing for now, but with the No Confidence ballot being anonymous, many will feel far more comfortable in going against Johnson. And if they didn't vote against him, it would be pretty bloody hard for them to admit to their constituents that they'd voted for him to continue as leader. A huge majority of the public do not like, not trust the PM.

If they get to 54 letters, Johnson's toast, surely?

 

[clapham_gull]

It's one thing for an MP to say nothing for now, but with the No Confidence ballot being anonymous, many will feel far more comfortable in going against Johnson. And if they didn't vote against him, it would be pretty bloody hard for them to admit to their constituents that they'd voted for him to continue as leader. A huge majority of the public do not like, not trust the PM.

If they get to 54 letters, Johnson's toast, surely?

Most political commentators expect him to win a vote but he will come out very damaged.

On the Starmer front I've just read there is a rumour that if he is forced to resign, he will enter a new leadership contest.

 

[beorhthelm]

It's one thing for an MP to say nothing for now, but with the No Confidence ballot being anonymous, many will feel far more comfortable in going against Johnson. And if they didn't vote against him, it would be pretty bloody hard for them to admit to their constituents that they'd voted for him to continue as leader. A huge majority of the public do not like, not trust the PM.

If they get to 54 letters, Johnson's toast, surely?

really depends what happens next. might win a confidence vote. if he doesnt, might stand for the following leadership election, without clear runners might win that. the thing he is good at is campaigning. would be clearer after the upcoming by-elections what mood is and who might be seen to bring together the factions.

 

[clapham_gull]

really depends what happens next. might win a confidence vote. if he doesnt, might stand for the following leadership election, without clear runners might win that. the thing he is good at is campaigning. would be clearer after the upcoming by-elections what mood is and who might be seen to bring together the factions.

If you lose a no confidence vote in the Tory party you are barred from entering the following leadership contest.

If you win, there can't be another vote for another 12 months.

 

[Flex Your Head]

Even the Tories voting on Conservative Home realise his time has come. His brand is toxic. Only the loons will be left to publicly support him soon.

 

[Flex Your Head]

Speaking of loons...

 

[rogersix]

View attachment 148424

Ooop!

 

[rogersix]

Hi Roger,
No we didn’t.
We had three children, two boys and a girl who was the eldest. The boys did well at their school and both went on to university. One is a teacher in the state system and the other (deep intake of breath) works for Palace in their Palace for Life Foundation. Our daughter struggled at her very poor school , which at the time was put into special measures, but came out the other end and now runs her own small business. At the time we did ask her if she wanted to change schools but she said no.
All has turned out ok and my lad’s new workmates at Palace are quite accepting of having a Brighton fan in their midst…….lots of good hearted banter, I understand. Thank heavens we finished above them!

That fills me with joy (except the palace bit )

 

[clapham_gull]

Another letter gone in, this time from Carlisle Conservative MP John Stevenson.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

In the name God, Go.

Just go, Johnson and make this a fantastic Bank Holiday weekend for the country.

 

[birthofanorange]

In the name God, Go.

Just go, Johnson and make this a fantastic Bank Holiday weekend for the country.

I'd even buy some bunting if he did.