[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[beorhthelm]

In FPTP any vote not for the winner and any of those beyond the one more the winner needs effectively are.

.. and that's the problem. The majority of the people in a constituency (and the country) can end with a leader they don't want.

It's incredibly patronising to think otherwise.

We had an alternative vote in London for the Mayor and it worked very well. Not so much publicised, but the Government have dumped it.

I wonder why.....

we dont vote for the leader though. the parties do, so we can still end up with a leader not wanted. so thats an argument for a presidential election. under PR no one gets the party they voted for either, unless one gets 50%, we get some form of compromise.

 

[Bob!]

This analysis of the local elections seems to suggest that voters have become very Anti-Tory savvy.

Throw the rascals out!

Evidence of anti-Conservative voting in the 2023 local elections

swingometer.substack.com

 

[clapham_gull]

we dont vote for the leader though.

Irrelevant to the point I am making and a different issue with the system. The fact that a new PM can be "elected" outside of a General Election.

 

[A1X]

Don’t underestimate the core Conservative vote, those who will always vote blue regardless of the evidence, those for whom it’s a tribal loyalty rather than caring what’s best for the country. For those people, none of this mess will be the fault of their darlings, it will be the fault of foreigners, gays, liberals, the civil service, and the turncoats who ousted Boris.

 

[chickens]

I think those who knowingly buy into this new Conservative regime are politically and economically detached from any form of achievable reality. The Conservative Party in its current form is now peddling two totally incompatible visions:

Vision 1: low tax, low tax, low tax. We will charge you less tax than any other party. This will aid investment at the expense of further declines in public services and a faster growing deficit (they don’t say those last bits out loud, and it doesn’t take into account that people don’t want to invest in a country where all the infrastructure is broken and everybody’s sick coz they’re waiting for an operation)

Vision 2: Britain for the British! We will stop all immigration and fill the employment gaps with our own children! This requires massive infrastructure investment in GP surgeries, hospitals, schools, roads as well as parks and leisure spaces where children can safely play. There would also need to be government incentives to have children to raise the birth rate. This would require high levels of taxation and see no benefit for 18 years. The Conservatives haven’t said what we’d do in the meantime.

Those two visions are absolutely incompatible, the government cannot be genuinely working towards both of them, and neither (to me) seems desirable. So, the government is lying to its own voters on at least one count.

Then finally there’s those who haven’t picked up a newspaper or read the news since Charles and Diana got married, and carry on voting blue because historically the Conservatives were “a safe pair of hands.” Even the hardest head may have started to realise that we seem to be in some form of long term decline.

We’ll see how many are left at the next election.

 

[HalfaSeatOn]

LibDems only option in our ward to have any chance of ousting Tories. Labour and Greens shouldn’t field candidates or, if do, shouldn’t receive a vote.

Look up the tactical vote in your constituency

tactical.vote | General Election 2024

tactical.vote

 

[beorhthelm]

I think those who knowingly buy into this new Conservative regime are politically and economically detached from any form of achievable reality. The Conservative Party in its current form is now peddling two totally incompatible visions:

Vision 1: low tax, low tax, low tax. We will charge you less tax than any other party. This will aid investment at the expense of further declines in public services and a faster growing deficit (they don’t say those last bits out loud, and it doesn’t take into account that people don’t want to invest in a country where all the infrastructure is broken and everybody’s sick coz they’re waiting for an operation)

Vision 2: Britain for the British! We will stop all immigration and fill the employment gaps with our own children! This requires massive infrastructure investment in GP surgeries, hospitals, schools, roads as well as parks and leisure spaces where children can safely play. There would also need to be government incentives to have children to raise the birth rate. This would require high levels of taxation and see no benefit for 18 years. The Conservatives haven’t said what we’d do in the meantime.

Those two visions are absolutely incompatible, the government cannot be genuinely working towards both of them, and neither (to me) seems desirable. So, the government is lying to its own voters on at least one count.

Then finally there’s those who haven’t picked up a newspaper or read the news since Charles and Diana got married, and carry on voting blue because historically the Conservatives were “a safe pair of hands.” Even the hardest head may have started to realise that we seem to be in some form of long term decline.

We’ll see how many are left at the next election.

good summary. im looking forward to a party promising more immigration and higher taxes and how that will solve so many issues. seriously, until some politicans are honest and explain what's needed and why, nothing much will change.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Personally, I'd suggest if they win again, it would be because the Tory voters who might switch get put off by the Labour manifesto if it's full of things they don't like or want. A real election is very different to local elections and opinion polls.

You've got two chances of that happening and Bob's out of town

 

[Stat Brother]

My concern is young people are losing faith in democracy, out voting system is a big part of the problem

If our yoof are reading, let alone taking notice of, The Daily Mail - we're even more fooked than I thought and we might as well pack it all in now.

 

[A1X]

good summary. im looking forward to a party promising more immigration and higher taxes and how that will solve so many issues. seriously, until some politicans are honest and explain what's needed and why, nothing much will change.

Unfortunately it won't happen while the tabloid press continue to claim to shape public opinion. Their owners have vested interests and will fight tooth and nail to protect them, at the expense of everyone else in the country.

 

[beorhthelm]

Unfortunately it won't happen while the tabloid press continue to claim to shape public opinion. Their owners have vested interests and will fight tooth and nail to protect them, at the expense of everyone else in the country.

this is often claimed, not convinved the media owners have a vested interest in either point. maybe they do have political beliefs bias that way. sounds like a cop-out to me, blame anything other than politicans without backbone. we need better politicans. the ones with the anti-immigration are making all the noise while none are advocating an alternative policy. hear it quietly from business, need more staff, but no one in politics bold enough to state outright we need more immigrants, and how.

 

[A1X]

this is often claimed, not convinved the media owners have a vested interest in either point. maybe they do have political beliefs bias that way. sounds like a cop-out to me, blame anything other than politicans without backbone. we need better politicans. the ones with the anti-immigration are making all the noise while none are advocating an alternative policy. hear it quietly from business, need more staff, but no one in politics bold enough to state outright we need more immigrants, and how.

Oh I think you're right. But let's ask ourselves why the anti-immigration MPs are making the noise, is it because there are no pro-immigration MPs? I doubt that. So we have to look at whether our media eco-system is allowing of people to openly broadcast their views as pro-immigration while in public office.

If (e.g.) Angela Rayner turned around tomorrow and said that immigration is a massive benefit and we need more of it, she will be pilloried in the right-wing newspapers and by extension the broadcasters who often have to fill their time with the discussions on the "talking points" raised by the press. There is a reason why a full paper review forms a part of every major news channel in this country. Would she be pilloried because what she says is wrong? No, as I'm sure you would agree. But that wouldn't matter, we have a carefully crafted media bubble which only allows legitimacy to certain viewpoints, and politicians are only permitted to hold certain sides.

Let's look at other areas. On the subject of crime, there are many studies out there which will tell you that locking people up willy-nilly is hugely counterproductive, but suggesting anything other than that is "soft on crime". This whole "stop the boats" business is primarily a failure of the immigration system, asylum applications are around 20% of what they were 20 years ago and yet we have huge backlogs which prevent processing and lead to detention centres, but better asylum processing is not as permissible as the current ideas. Generally public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of the public ownership of utilities, but not in the media it's not so to suggest it marks you as "Comrade xxx". On strikes, by and large during this winter's strike action the public backed the unions in almost every strike going, but the media and political narrative was constantly "how dare you!".

Is this all a coincidence? Not for me, Clive.

 

[chickens]

good summary. im looking forward to a party promising more immigration and higher taxes and how that will solve so many issues. seriously, until some politicans are honest and explain what's needed and why, nothing much will change.

I agree that I’d appreciate some political honesty, but I also understand why it’s not the messaging anybody wants to lead with. Nobody (except HMRC) shouts ‘Yay! Taxes!’ but underfunding vital public services has taken us to here.

As for immigration, the simple fact of the matter is that otherwise viable British businesses would have to close their doors if we stopped immigration completely. We still have to make up the shortfall of available workers until such time as we’ve implemented policies that raise our birth rate and waited the required 18 years to reach maturity.

This Conservative Party has proven incapable of planning beyond the next Daily Mail headline.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

this is often claimed, not convinved the media owners have a vested interest in either point. maybe they do have political beliefs bias that way. sounds like a cop-out to me, blame anything other than politicans without backbone. we need better politicans. the ones with the anti-immigration are making all the noise while none are advocating an alternative policy. hear it quietly from business, need more staff, but no one in politics bold enough to state outright we need more immigrants, and how.

The anti immigration is a lie, because immigration is actually up. Immigrants from India, Hong Kong and the Commonwealth are coming in, but not mentioned, because those who ‘hate’ immigrants are busy frothing at the mouth about boats.

When EU workers were here, many of them came for a few years and returned, so it was fluid, but the government decided to include university students (who were here for 3 or 4 years) in their figures to make sound worse than it was.
Smoke and mirrors.

 

[Pavilionaire]

My concern is young people are losing faith in democracy, out voting system is a big part of the problem

Oh I think you're right. But let's ask ourselves why the anti-immigration MPs are making the noise, is it because there are no pro-immigration MPs? I doubt that. So we have to look at whether our media eco-system is allowing of people to openly broadcast their views as pro-immigration while in public office.

If (e.g.) Angela Rayner turned around tomorrow and said that immigration is a massive benefit and we need more of it, she will be pilloried in the right-wing newspapers and by extension the broadcasters who often have to fill their time with the discussions on the "talking points" raised by the press. There is a reason why a full paper review forms a part of every major news channel in this country. Would she be pilloried because what she says is wrong? No, as I'm sure you would agree. But that wouldn't matter, we have a carefully crafted media bubble which only allows legitimacy to certain viewpoints, and politicians are only permitted to hold certain sides.

Let's look at other areas. On the subject of crime, there are many studies out there which will tell you that locking people up willy-nilly is hugely counterproductive, but suggesting anything other than that is "soft on crime". This whole "stop the boats" business is primarily a failure of the immigration system, asylum applications are around 20% of what they were 20 years ago and yet we have huge backlogs which prevent processing and lead to detention centres, but better asylum processing is not as permissible as the current ideas. Generally public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of the public ownership of utilities, but not in the media it's not so to suggest it marks you as "Comrade xxx". On strikes, by and large during this winter's strike action the public backed the unions in almost every strike going, but the media and political narrative was constantly "how dare you!".

Is this all a coincidence? Not for me, Clive.

I agree with this, and I think you could add tax to your list. There is a narrative in this country that has almost become culturally accepted that tax cuts are good, tax rises are bad.

However, the majority of people would agree that public services have worsened, were not brilliant to start with and are underfunded. Ergo, we need tax rises to pay for the improvements. Tax cuts cannot possibly make public services any better and will almost certainly make them worse.

 

[A1X]

I agree with this, and I think you could add tax to your list. There is a narrative in this country that has almost become culturally accepted that tax cuts are good, tax rises are bad.

However, the majority of people would agree that public services have worsened, were not brilliant to start with and are underfunded. Ergo, we need tax rises to pay for the improvements. Tax cuts cannot possibly make public services any better and will almost certainly make them worse.

100% agree, people want Scandinavian levels of public service at US-levels of taxation, which is simply illogical. The only way to even try and make it work is to borrow a shit-ton of money, which is what Governments in the UK have done for the last 50 years.

 

[nicko31]

The anti immigration is a lie, because immigration is actually up. Immigrants from India, Hong Kong and the Commonwealth are coming in, but not mentioned, because those who ‘hate’ immigrants are busy frothing at the mouth about boats.

When EU workers were here, many of them came for a few years and returned, so it was fluid, but the government decided to include university students (who were here for 3 or 4 years) in their figures to make sound worse than it was.
Smoke and mirrors.

Think we its important to also remind everyone its now pretty hard for Brits to now leave the UK and live in the EU, infact there's a fair few coming back as their lives have been made harder. All adds to the net figure.

We're not queueing to live in India or Honkers

 

[Motogull]

LibDems only option in our ward to have any chance of ousting Tories. Labour and Greens shouldn’t field candidates or, if do, shouldn’t receive a vote.

Look up the tactical vote in your constituency

tactical.vote | General Election 2024

tactical.vote

Sigh.

 

[Machiavelli]

I agree with this, and I think you could add tax to your list. There is a narrative in this country that has almost become culturally accepted that tax cuts are good, tax rises are bad.

However, the majority of people would agree that public services have worsened, were not brilliant to start with and are underfunded. Ergo, we need tax rises to pay for the improvements. Tax cuts cannot possibly make public services any better and will almost certainly make them worse.

@beorhthelm is onto something: our politics is riven with dishonesty, and the phrase 'the truth hurts' hasn't been uttered by a politician for a long time.
One of the things that @beorhthelm called for was a politician being honest about the need for higher taxes. Well, the tax burden is the highest in recorded history and it's been brought about by a government whose mantra is that they're committed to low taxes, and there's little challenge to them from their chums in the press on this. The previous largest hike in the tax burden was perpetrated by one Margaret Thatcher, when her government doubled VAT overnight. Yet her reputation is of a tax cutter. What she did, and what the past 13 years has continued to do (and New Labour didn't make too much in terms of substantial inroads on this either) was to shift the burden of taxation from the rich to the poor.
Reversing that would be the most honest way of getting the public on-side but only if they accept that it's necessary. The tax burden needs to shift away from labour, particularly the labour of the bottom c80% of earnings, and towards assets and both conspicuous and carbon-intensive consumption. Whatever is raised needs to go towards repairing broken public services, nationalising certain industries (water would be my first in line), and getting behind a green industrial strategy (credit to Ed Miliband on this, he's produced a radical, transformatory agenda).

 

[MJsGhost]

LibDems only option in our ward to have any chance of ousting Tories. Labour and Greens shouldn’t field candidates or, if do, shouldn’t receive a vote.

Look up the tactical vote in your constituency

tactical.vote | General Election 2024

tactical.vote

No surprise here. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see a majority of well over 10k for the LibDems at the GE.

Off you trot Caulfield, let's see how welcome you are back in the NHS after your voting record...