[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Motogull]

I don't see who can bring them back.

That person could be Johnson (he will shift anywhere) but look at what/who he has surrounded himself with.

Tugendhat but he needs a little more out front exposure first.

 

[Bry Nylon]

If Nadine Dorries is so convinced the crowd were actually cheering perhaps she should invite the Prime Minister for a walkabout in her constituency this weekend and see how that goes for them

 

[Motogull]

If Nadine Dorries is so convinced the crowd were actually cheering perhaps she should invite the Prime Minister for a walkabout in her constituency this weekend and see how that goes for them

Yeah, those vote stats reflect her intelligence. If she says something, there's a 97% probability she's wrong.

 

[jakarta]

I have a gut feeling the 54 votes were in on Tuesday.
Announcement this coming Monday or Tuesday.

Would love to know where you got that 'gut feeling' from?

In case you hadn't noticed the Tories have a massive Parliamentary majority and can do pretty well what they want for the next few years.

Boris being a chump isn't going to change that fact, no matter how many people boo him.

And no I'm not a fan of the man, just know he will cling to power until his own mob boot him out. Which isn't going to happen any time soon.

 

[clapham_gull]

Tugendhat but he needs a little more out front exposure first.

Not sure they can handle someone who has openly criticised the PM, that's their problem.

They would want to generally "punish" whoever makes a challenge and elect some form of unity candidate, probably from the cabinet.

And that's where the party are. However bad Johnson is (and he really really is), he is surrounded by some of the worst politicians ever to grace the Cabinet.

The only exceptions being Nadhim Zahawi and less so Sajid Javid who are both probably palatable to the electorate. Javid is terrible at public speaking though.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Well as he's likely to win that vote (but today won't help), there is always the electorate.

The party are in clear need of a reboot and that's usually done in opposition. It invariably takes them a decade to recover, usually by shifting to extremes and making their way back.

However I'm not sure how much more to the extremes this one can go. In the medium term they are in trouble.

As the bulk of the electorate slowly move back to the centre, I don't see who can bring them back.

That person could be Johnson (he will shift anywhere) but look at what/who he has surrounded himself with.

Rory Stewart, sadly lost to a Yale fellowship now. A Tory I could 100% believe in. Educated, international, liberal without being in any way "woke". Unfortunately, this doesn't shift copies of The Sun.

 

[clapham_gull]

Would love to know where you got that 'gut feeling' from?

In case you hadn't noticed the Tories have a massive Parliamentary majority and can do pretty well what they want for the next few years.

Boris being a chump isn't going to change that fact, no matter how many people boo him.

And no I'm not a fan of the man, just know he will cling to power until his own mob boot him out. Which isn't going to happen any time soon.

However, the Conservatives are the most successful political party in history.

If they think Johnson can't win the next election he will be gone before - particularly under pressure from MPs with small majorities.

In private some MPs on all sides (particularly those with safe seats) are quite happy to see a party lose an election because it's easy to reboot in opposition.

All those things will be going on behind the scenes. The Tories are ruthless with their leaders.

 

[clapham_gull]

Rory Stewart, sadly lost to a Yale fellowship now. A Tory I could 100% believe in. Educated, international, liberal without being in any way "woke". Unfortunately, this doesn't shift copies of The Sun.

My insider tells me (from a completely neutral position) he talks a good game, but if you think Johnson is out of touch with how ordinary people live - meet Rory.

Also check out his voting record if you think he is liberal. It suggests he is Rees Mogg's slightly more agreeable younger brother who just happens not to get on with Johnson.

 

[Dr Bandler]

Tugendhat but he needs a little more out front exposure first.

Tugendhat seems a thoroughly decent, principled man. Would the Tories go for that? It would be refreshing.

 

[drew]

Would love to know where you got that 'gut feeling' from?

In case you hadn't noticed the Tories have a massive Parliamentary majority and can do pretty well what they want for the next few years.

Boris being a chump isn't going to change that fact, no matter how many people boo him.

And no I'm not a fan of the man, just know he will cling to power until his own mob boot him out. Which isn't going to happen any time soon.

Just because they might change their leader doesn't mean they will lose power! If the 54 letters are in then he faces a vote of no confidence in his leadership by the elected Tory MPs. If he loses, they will chose another PM until May 2024. If he wins, he can't be challenged for 12 months. There are plenty of Tory MPs that are worried about an election so they won't want a leader who's popularity is plummeting. He came to the leadership as many thought he was a great figurehead. That's completely changed. In May 2020, 96% of Tory voters thought he was running the economy well. That's down to 55% with 41% thinking he's doing badly as at 5th May 2022. That's a massive change. (you gov poll).

 

[Guinness Boy]

My insider tells me he talks a good game, but if you think Johnson is out of touch with how ordinary people live - meet Rory.

Also check out his voting record if you think he is liberal.

While he was whipped?

Voting records in our system count for absolute zero. The fact he left the Tories to teach says all I need to know about him. Had it been Stewart v Corbyn in 2019 instead of Johnson I'd have been in a serious quandary, wanting Peter Kyle to win my seat but very much Stewart to win the GE.

 

[knocky1]

Would love to know where you got that 'gut feeling' from?

In case you hadn't noticed the Tories have a massive Parliamentary majority and can do pretty well what they want for the next few years.

Boris being a chump isn't going to change that fact, no matter how many people boo him.

And no I'm not a fan of the man, just know he will cling to power until his own mob boot him out. Which isn't going to happen any time soon.

I can't help you if you don't know where a gut feeling comes from. Mine may have been triggered by an article in the FT this week.
As an aside be careful before patronising me, I'm knocky by nature and despise condescending smart arses.
Politics is not a science. Hence my gut feeling.

 

[jakarta]

The Tories are ruthless with their leaders.

Well quite, they stabbed Thatcher in the back after 3 consecutive Election Wins but I can't see a clear successor to Boris, surely not Truss or Gove?

 

[knocky1]

Well quite, they stabbed Thatcher in the back after 3 consecutive Election Wins but I can't see a clear successor to Boris, surely not Truss or Gove?

If I may be allowed to voice my ridiculous views, Jeremy £unt looks ready.

 

[jakarta]

I can't help you if you don't know where a gut feeling comes from. Mine may have been triggered by an article in the FT this week.
As an aside be careful before patronising me, I'm knocky by nature and despise condescending smart arses.
Politics is not a science. Hence my gut feeling.

So in other words you don't actually know?

 

[knocky1]

So in other words you don't actually know?

I don't suffer fools gladly. Bye.

 

[clapham_gull]

While he was whipped?

Voting records in our system count for absolute zero. The fact he left the Tories to teach says all I need to know about him. Had it been Stewart v Corbyn in 2019 instead of Johnson I'd have been in a serious quandary, wanting Peter Kyle to win my seat but very much Stewart to win the GE.

Sorry I know someone who worked with him very closely. His voting record is very much a public record of where he exists politically whipped or not.

He is to the right of Johnson in many areas. I was surprised, but then again he is a very likeable smooth talking diplomatic with good PR.

Very much a product of the Foreign Office he would have taken instant dislike of Johnson from his time as Foreign Secretary.

Unfortunately he is the third competitive opportunist Eton boy to add to the Cameron, Boris soap opera. Albeit less successful.

Hasn't really got the background to deal with things domestically, he isn't that sort of politician. Potentially a superb foreign secretary though.

May have done well in the London Mayoral elections (as an independent), but due to Covid he ran out of cash and withdrew.

It's a no from me.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Sorry I know someone who worked with him very closely. His voting record is very much a public record of where he exists politically whipped or not.

He is to the right of Johnson in many areas.

He a very likeable smooth talking diplomatic with good PR. Very much a product of the Foreign Office who would have taken instant dislike of Johnson from his time as Foreign Secretary,

May have done well in the London Mayoral elections (as an independent), but due to Covid he ran out of cash and withdrew.

Yeah, yeah. It's funny how NSCs most reasonable. scientific and centrist posters will pull that line until their agenda is challenged and will then suddenly "know someone" or have "read on social media".

But, let's suppose for a minute that you're correct, my point is that in the current British system, you cannot tell the political views of anyone by their parliamentary votes, because they HAVE to vote a particular way to keep their job, most of the time.

I'm not an MP but I've backed out of more than one meeting room confrontation to keep my job in the past and, equally, I've won plenty of those battles.

 

[jakarta]

I don't suffer fools gladly. Bye.

Would love to know where your actual experience of Politics comes from?

My late Father in Law was Chair of Horsham District Council (Lib Dem) and my Brother and his wife were (Labour) Councillors in Bury.

I suspect my opinions of the dirty games that go on are from personal knowledge rather than the FT.

Happy Bank Holiday

 

[clapham_gull]

Yeah, yeah. It's funny how NSCs most reasonable. scientific and centrist posters will pull that line until their agenda is challenged and will then suddenly "know someone" or have "read on social media".

But, let's suppose for a minute that you're correct, my point is that in the current British system, you cannot tell the political views of anyone by their parliamentary votes, because they HAVE to vote a particular way to keep their job, most of the time.

I'm not an MP but I've backed out of more than one meeting room confrontation to keep my job in the past and, equally, I've won plenty of those battles.

We clearly move in different circles

No sorry, many conversations came up with an acquaintance who works in an area with constant engagement with certain politicians. I was exactly like you, thinking this would be a great PM but when you dig behind the televised leadership debates there is often another story. It's always interesting talking to someone who takes a back seat and doesn't take a political perspective.

I'm genuinely surprised all the time, mostly those conversations are about competence rather than ideology. They are some frightful MPs who get things done, some "lovely" ones who are a nightmare to work with.

This time the conversation was more about public persona versus reality and I was pointed to the voting record to prove that I was wrong. Rory Stewart in his defence is one of those politicians to admit when he got something "wrong" and has done on a number of occasions, but I'm not sure he has addressed his voting record. I put that down to him being individually minded and frankly standing by it.

What we can agree on is that Rory Stewart would have been an absolute thorn in the side of Johnson as London Mayor but he bottled it / ran away with the reality of standing against Khan.

He also came up with a quite bonkers strategy ( #ComeKipWithMe ) where he offered to sleep on Londoner's sofas to hear about what they wanted from a London Mayor.

You don't need to sleep on people's sofas in your capital city, but then again if you are as out of touch as Rory maybe you do ? It's also a difficult strategy against the incumbent Mayor who is the son of a London Bus Driver.

He was also got found out on that campaign by claiming to video himself walking round London (selfie style) with a mobile when clearly he had a cameraman alongside.

When challenged it was a cheeky "you found me out grin" that only an education at Eton can prepare oneself for. It was the moment (for me) that Rory transformed into just another Johnson type politician.

He's clearly happier working abroad (even in a tent, smoking a spliff with locals), or working domestically on foreign issues than domestic ones.

If he had been the PM he would needed a Gordon Brown type figure to focus on the UK.

My personal view (albeit evidence based and not one based on social media) is that Rory Stewart is an opportunist from a similar background to Johnson, just not as good an opportunist.