[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[nicko31]

I never vote in local elections but will be hauling myself down to this one to vote against Johnson.

Only a disaster for the Torries will get him out.

Steepest decline in living standards since the 50's

Highest tax burden since the 1940s

surging fuel and food prices

Inflation approaching its highest rate since early 80's

12.5 million people facing absolute poverty”

Exports down 15%

Productivity down 4%

I'd say they'll do reasonably in the local elections..

 

[Audax]

Labour are still slightly ahead in the polling but the gap has been cut, which to me says a good amount of people have moved on from it.

Will be interesting to see how this changes after more comes out.

Not sure if that's an indication of people moving on. There's subtleties in the timings of the shifts.

The Tory vote share bottomed out around 31% (a few individual polls went lower) at the height of the partygate scandal. That coincided with a spike in support for Reform and the Lib Dems alongside the rise towards 40-41 for Labour. The Tory vote remained flat in that 31-32 range for a while, then climbed back to around 35% but has since then remained relatively flat. Most of that recovery for the Tories appears to be voters returning from Reform (entirely unsurprising) and a partial return from Lib Dem (important here: only partial). During that same time period while partygate was quiet, Labour share dipped back below 40% but remained high around 39. The more recent closure of the Tory-Labour gap actually looks like it's being driven by Labour voters switching to Green.

At the moment, I think we're still looking at a potentially very damaging polling situation for the Tories at any election. They are still in a position where they are vulnerable to organised tactical voting in marginal seats. Boris' approval rating remains dismal (recovered a little while partygate was quiet, but notably in the last couple of weeks it's flatlined other than a single outlier result in early March).

All this says to me that the closed gap has more to do with UK politics taking a back seat for a bit. Labour haven't been actively seeking to score political points. I suspect when they do resume a strong pre-locals push we may well see that the Tory recovery is quite soft, especially if Boris does end up receiving a FPN.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

.

Sent from my SM-A326B using Tapatalk

 

[dazzer6666]

A FPN isn't the equivalent of a speeding ticket. Road traffic offences (speeding, parking fines) except where the matter has been dealt with by way of a 'fixed penalty notice' as such matters do not constitute a criminal conviction

It is a charge which gets logged on ACRO.

https://www.acro.police.uk/

Technically yes, practically, to most onlookers, not……

 

[happypig]

I can see Johnson going on to be a two or even three term PM. The tories love a winner.

You've started on the sauce early today...

 

[Machiavelli]

Not sure if that's an indication of people moving on. There's subtleties in the timings of the shifts.

The Tory vote share bottomed out around 31% (a few individual polls went lower) at the height of the partygate scandal. That coincided with a spike in support for Reform and the Lib Dems alongside the rise towards 40-41 for Labour. The Tory vote remained flat in that 31-32 range for a while, then climbed back to around 35% but has since then remained relatively flat. Most of that recovery for the Tories appears to be voters returning from Reform (entirely unsurprising) and a partial return from Lib Dem (important here: only partial). During that same time period while partygate was quiet, Labour share dipped back below 40% but remained high around 39. The more recent closure of the Tory-Labour gap actually looks like it's being driven by Labour voters switching to Green.

At the moment, I think we're still looking at a potentially very damaging polling situation for the Tories at any election. They are still in a position where they are vulnerable to organised tactical voting in marginal seats. Boris' approval rating remains dismal (recovered a little while partygate was quiet, but notably in the last couple of weeks it's flatlined other than a single outlier result in early March).

All this says to me that the closed gap has more to do with UK politics taking a back seat for a bit. Labour haven't been actively seeking to score political points. I suspect when they do resume a strong pre-locals push we may well see that the Tory recovery is quite soft, especially if Boris does end up receiving a FPN.

Yes, that's an in-depth analysis, and little to disagree with there, apart from potentially your final point. But even in the (slightly) likelier scenario that you're right on this final point, it wouldn't be any radical departure from history, where sitting governments normally get a kick-in in mid-term non-national (ie local and, previously, EU) elections. What's different though is that Johnson had the hex over the public for so long and, as you point out, that's been broken over the Patterson affair and partygate. As [MENTION=15360]nicko31[/MENTION] points out the economic figures are looking dire and hardly the ideal environment for much more of the vague, unspecific mantra of 'levelling-up'.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

You've started on the sauce early today...

It's an expectation rather than a hope.

The fools are lining up on the radio to defend 'partygate' as I type.

 

[Smirko]

Has the meltdown happened yet or is it still on the way......?

 

[Baker lite]

It's an expectation rather than a hope.

The fools are lining up on the radio to defend 'partygate' as I type.

What station are you listening to to? All I’ve had all day on the wireless is talk of cervixs and people in possession of a penis[emoji2371]
Very little on whether or not someone had a bit of cakey.

 

[johanngull]

Getting rid of the Fixed Term Parliament act is now thing, but the Elections Bill is far more sinister and will disenfranchise potentially a couple of million vote and with the war on the poor you can guess these aren't Tory voters

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9187/CBP-9187.pdf

The permitted photo documents are listed in the Bill. These will be:
• A UK, Commonwealth or EEA passport;
• A UK (DVLA or DVA Northern Ireland), Channel Islands, Isle of Man or an
EEA driving licence;
• A biometric immigration document issued in accordance with
regulations under section 5 of the UK Borders Act 2007;
• A PASS card issued by the National Proof of Age Standards Scheme
bearing the PASS hologram;
• An MOD Defence Identity Card;
• A concessionary photo travel pass from Oyster 60+, a Freedom Pass, or
a concessionary travel pass from a scheme funded by the Government
of the United Kingdom, the Scottish Government or the Welsh
Government;

If this gets through parliament, we've already had our last free and fair election

And


• A Blue Badge scheme card issued in Great Britain or Northern Ireland;
• A free voter ID card issued by a person’s local electoral registration
officer (the new card to be introduced by the Bill) or an existing
Northern Ireland voter ID card;

The provisions on the new free voter card state they are to be made
available by local electoral registration officers. The card must contain the
elector’s full name (or elector number if they are registered anonymously)
and a photo. No charge can be made for the card.

 

[nicko31]

And


• A Blue Badge scheme card issued in Great Britain or Northern Ireland;
• A free voter ID card issued by a person’s local electoral registration
officer (the new card to be introduced by the Bill) or an existing
Northern Ireland voter ID card;

The provisions on the new free voter card state they are to be made
available by local electoral registration officers. The card must contain the
elector’s full name (or elector number if they are registered anonymously)
and a photo. No charge can be made for the card.

I'd be interested to see the process in getting the voter card seeing as photo ID is required. Voter fraud is near zero, this is clearly an attempt of voter suppression in a certain demographic.

Then there's the proposed change in boundaries, wonder who that will benefit?

Then there's Johnson plans to take control of the independent Electoral Commission in another assault on democratic institutions

I wish I could trust them but this a lying, law breaking government...

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I'd be interested to see the process in getting the voter card seeing as photo ID is required. Voter fraud is near zero, this is clearly an attempt of voter suppression in a certain demographic.

Then there's the proposed change in boundaries, wonder who that will benefit?

Then there's Johnson plans to take control of the independent Electoral Commission in another assault on democratic institutions

I wish I could trust them but this a lying, law breaking government...

Where the Republican Party go, the tories soon follow.

A clear attempt to entrench themselves in power

 

[nicko31]

Where the Republican Party go, the tories soon follow.

A clear attempt to entrench themselves in power

All the time Johnson is PM we will see further development of the post truth world and whats more a sizeable section of our press seem to think this is acceptable

I'd stop short at saying they are like the US Republicans, well not yet...

 

[rippleman]

Why are the names of those 20 who have been fined for breaking the law being kept secret? The names of others who received fines for not following the rules weren't kept secret. I have found at least a dozen reports (and then I stopped looking) where miscreants were named and shamed in the media.

In criminal law you face a heavier penalty if you have "abused your position" (eg someone like a charity treasurer syphoning off funds or a bank employee on the rob etc etc).

If you get a fine for bunking the train or not paying your TV licence, names have appeared in the media.

As those who have been fined are almost exclusively likely to be MPs, ministers, government advisors or senior civil servants surely we have a right to know? Are the Met party to another Establishment cover-up?

 

[Wrong-Direction]

https://youtu.be/027yLWHBEns

He should be finished! Anyone still supporting this clown should be ashamed of themselves.

Sent from my SM-A326B using Tapatalk

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Poor students get £10K fine whereas rich London officials (MPs or Civil Servants?) £50

One rule for them etc

[tweet]1509887249080594451[/tweet]

 

[Bodian]

These 20 fines seem to be for a low-ish profile 'leaving do'. Does this mean that it's the only event to be wrong, or does it mean they are starting with the low profile and going up the scale? Or maybe chronologically - this was the 18 June one, which was the first one indoors.

 

[PeterOut]

These 20 fines seem to be for a low-ish profile 'leaving do'. Does this mean that it's the only event to be wrong, or does it mean they are starting with the low profile and going up the scale? Or maybe chronologically - this was the 18 June one, which was the first one indoors.

I think there were 10 'events' being investigated (maybe it was 10, or 12 - it gets fuzzy at the edges) - so these 20 fines could have been awarded to just 2 people, if they attended pretty much all of them?

 

[nicko31]

Update...

First were no parties
Then were so parties but Bojo wasn’t there
Then turned out he was there but it wasn’t a party
Then Bojo commissions a report into these gatherings
Then turns out the commissioner he appointed to investigate was at the gathering
Then Sue Gray in, but not Met not getting involved
Then Met will investigate after all
Then can’t get Sue Gray report till met finished their investigation
Then questionnaires
Then interviews
Then 20 people got a fine, we don't know who
Then the Tories held a party to celebrate in London
Then more questionnaires
Then more interviews
Then can’t get Sue Gray report till met finished their investigation...
We the plebs are so impatient ...

 

[Barnet Seagull]

...and the media dismissing partygate as something that doesn't matter.

Predictable and depressing.