Tories 28 points up in the polls

[vulture]

Biggest lead since records begam

Tories 52%
Labour 24%
lib wankers 12%

Wipe out.....wheres that website that projects this into seats....labour is finished

 

[Robot Chicken]

Means nothing until Brown calls a general election!

 

[Buzzer]

Not quite the largest. In Dec 1994 Labour were on 60% and Tories on 20% and in May 1968 Tories were on 56% and Labour on 28%.

Still....all good news. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk puts the Tories well into the 300 majority, Labour in meltdown and the Limp dems all but annihilated on 8 seats.

Mori always tend to have the Tories higher than other pollsters but it's worth remembering that historically the Tories are always understated on opinion polls.

The really interesting statistic seems to be that Labour has flatlined on around 24% and not going up or down (will the voters actually vote though? That's Labour's worry) also that the Limp Dems attempts to become Tory-lite have been rejected by the electorate (although poll was taken before the Limp Dem conference. Clegg has had a disastrous few interviews though so can't see them gaining much greater support).

What the hell is Clegg doing telling people to prepare for Government? Does he not remember Steel's same conference statement?

 

[bigc]

What the hell is Clegg doing telling people to prepare for Government? Does he not remember Steel's same conference statement?

Seeing as he doesn't even have ANY clue about how much a weekly pension is, I doubt he remembers what Steel said.

 

[Brighton Breezy]

Plenty of time before an election though. A week is a long time in politics.

 

[Buzzer]

Plenty of time before an election though. A week is a long time in politics.

At the moment a day is a long time in politics but even the most naive person can see that Brown won't be able to hide much longer. He's got 2 big tests and he has to pass them both IMO.

He has to give THE speech of his life at conference next week. Even then, Eric Joyce has promised to piss on any fireworks by saying he will resign after that. Then there's the Glentothes by-election.

Apparently he's lost the confidence of his cabinet with Purnell in early electioneering mode the most obvious.

My gut feeling (party politics aside) is that Brown will go before Christmas and a general election early next year.

 

[Brighton Breezy]

Agreed. But then if Brown goes Labour's showing will surely improve meaning any polls showing the Tories up by loads means as pretty meaningless.

 

[bigc]

My gut feeling (party politics aside) is that Brown will go before Christmas and a general election early next year.

I agree too. Party Politics aside, who do you think could do the best job for Labour and what is realistically their best outcome?

I said party politics aside because I can understand from your point of view you'd enjoy watching Brown continue to be as unpopular as hell until 2010 when your lot would have the mother of all victories. While the scenario makes me shudder, I can't begrudge you having the chance to laugh at your enemy go down the pan, after all we all did it when the boot was on the other foot.

 

[vulture]

Agreed. But then if Brown goes Labour's showing will surely improve meaning any polls showing the Tories up by loads means as pretty meaningless.

Wrong Richie the polls show that labours vote will go down further if brown goes like the tories in 97 the end is nigh

 

[Buzzer]

Agreed. But then if Brown goes Labour's showing will surely improve meaning any polls showing the Tories up by loads means as pretty meaningless.

Surely improve? Says who?

The polls that have asked the question about Labour post-Brown suggest otherwise. It's not just the leader but the brand that's tainted. Even hardened Labour supporters on sites such as Labourhome acknowledge that. Labour MPs seem to want Brown to go as damage limitation rather than for a miraculous recovery. I think they're right. It's the difference between a Tory majority of 130 compared with 260-odd and Scotland going SNP.

There is no natural successor to Brown who has captured the public imagination for that recovery. They just need someone (anyone) who isn't Brown to lead them until the next election.

 

[vulture]

Buzzer..would Labour have to call an election straight away if brown goes or could they have a 2nd unelected leader until 2010

 

[bigc]

Surely improve? Says who?

The polls that have asked the question about Labour post-Brown suggest otherwise. It's not just the leader but the brand that's tainted. Even hardened Labour supporters on sites such as Labourhome acknowledge that. Labour MPs seem to want Brown to go as damage limitation rather than for a miraculous recovery. I think they're right. It's the difference between a Tory majority of 130 compared with 260-odd and Scotland going SNP.

There is no natural successor to Brown who has captured the public imagination for that recovery. They just need someone (anyone) who isn't Brown to lead them until the next election.

Yep, I agree totally.

Plus the higher the majority the longer life span it automatically gives the Tories. Labour were practically assured two terms the moment all the results had come in on May 2nd 1997.

 

[bigc]

Buzzer..would Labour have to call an election straight away if brown goes or could they have a 2nd unelected leader until 2010

They could wait till 2010 but I think they think it would cause such outrage and resentment that they'd rather, as Buzzer said, exercise damage limitation now and fight the election a year earlier with a slightly less hated figure and before there is the opportunity for potentially another 12 dire months for the economy.

 

[Buzzer]

I agree too. Party Politics aside, who do you think could do the best job for Labour and what is realistically their best outcome?

I said party politics aside because I can understand from your point of view you'd enjoy watching Brown continue to be as unpopular as hell until 2010 when your lot would have the mother of all victories. While the scenario makes me shudder, I can't begrudge you having the chance to laugh at your enemy go down the pan, after all we all did it when the boot was on the other foot.

It stopped being funny for me around June this year. I find it frightening that Labour could have a meltdown similar to the Canadian Tories of a few years back. It would mean the end of the Union and a very undemocratic country. Cameron could have 100 rebels and still juggernaut through whatever he bloody well-liked.

I also find it very scary that we have a PM who is quite so Stalinist. It's become clear that his office leaked the names of the people who requested to the PArty Secreatry nomination papers. Bear in mind that this was supposed to be a private thing in itself between the secreatary and the MP. Brown then sacks the people for having a view (so much to listening to people) and where is he now? Where is our chancellor?

You want to know what's on the front page of Number 10's website right now? Frigging pictures of Brown with the England Rugby team. Talk about losing sight of what's important.

I want him out ASAP.

 

[Buzzer]

Buzzer..would Labour have to call an election straight away if brown goes or could they have a 2nd unelected leader until 2010

As I understand it - I'm not an expert - no. They have a mandate until 2010 but they risk further wrath and rdicule by having 2 leaders that had not been put before the electorate. I think the public would be very pissed off with Labour if they do string it out until 2010 and they kick out Brown.

Trouble is that Labour has sod all money and to run an internal leadership contest and then an election is very costly.

Do they then go by Parliament protocol and appoint the chancellor as 2nd Lord to the Treasury as PM or do they follow Labour rules and promote Harriet Harman to PM? Jeezus, if they pick Harman as the person to lead them into an election then it'll be carnage. Forget about any chance of keeping traditional white blue-collar and white van man votes.

This ain't good for Britain, you know. A healthy opposition makes for a healthy Government. Labour are in a jam if they don't have a leadership contest and they're in a costly mess with no idea of an outome if they do. And then the question of when to go to the electorate.

Brown made 2 big errors as PM (forget the 10p fiasco). He never had a proper leadership challenge - he made sure of that and he bottled going to the electorate straight after. And now he'll be known as the worst PM ever.

 

[Buzzer]

double post

 

[bigc]

It stopped being funny for me around June this year. I find it frightening that Labour could have a meltdown similar to the Canadian Tories of a few years back. It would mean the end of the Union and a very undemocratic country. Cameron could have 100 rebels and still juggernaut through whatever he bloody well-liked.

I also find it very scary that we have a PM who is quite so Stalinist. It's become clear that his office leaked the names of the people who requested to the PArty Secreatry nomination papers. Bear in mind that this was supposed to be a private thing in itself between the secreatary and the MP. Brown then sacks the people for having a view (so much to listening to people) and where is he now? Where is our chancellor?

You want to know what's on the front page of Number 10's website right now? Frigging pictures of Brown with the England Rugby team. Talk about losing sight of what's important.

I want him out ASAP.

You make many valid points but it is equally scary that just when Labour is imploding, the Lib Dems are trying to copy the Tories(awfully, I may add) which could well lead to the Tories being the only electoral force.

That's not good for any of us.

 

[Buzzer]

You make many valid points but it is equally scary that just when Labour is imploding, the Lib Dems are trying to copy the Tories(awfully, I may add) which could well lead to the Tories being the only electoral force.

That's not good for any of us.

The Lib Dem thing is bizarre. Here we have a Government in turmoil. This is prime LD territory. They ARE the party of protest. Perhaps as Labour have moved to the right and LD have been seen as the left wing party that people now naturally distrust tax-raising parties. Might explain the volte-face by them this week.

It might also have something to do with just how they manage to elect completely unsuitable leaders after the coup on Charlie boy. (The tories did that a few times too before they got their act together). They just seem a bit incompetent, not so nice and a bit too near Labour at the moment.

I really don't know why they are doing so badly (and quietly parties such as the Greens and BNP are doing so relatively well). Keep an eye out on Labour's vote here in Brighton and in Norwich and Oxford compared to the Greens and for their vote in Barking and Stoke and Burnley compared to the BNP.

If things go SPECTACULARLY wrong for the Libs and for Labour then the pundits are predicting a merger.

 

[Buzzer]

Bloody hell, CB. Thanks for the kind words but I'm not the oracle. I'm just an awkward right-winger with more questions than answers.

Go ahead and say what you want.