Top after 14 games

[warmleyseagull]

14 games gone, end of third month, the cream is starting to float upwards, so how does being top at this stage pan out for season end?

In the last fifteen seasons set out below. EIGHT teams who were top after 14 games achieved auto promo (4 champions, 4 2nd); THREE finished in PO spot (none succesful); TWO were close to PO; and TWO completely bombed (Watford in 00/01 and Cardiff in 06/07 got only a point per game after a great start, which is relegation form).

So based on an admittedly statistically insignificant sample of 15, Albion have a 53% chance of promotion, but with a significant downside. There is no significant correlation between the points gained at this stage and outcomes, although four of the eight who achieved auto promo had more than 30 points, two had 30, and two less.

The median points achieved in last 32 games is 57, which would result in 87 points. This is about the average achieved for 2nd place teams, and should be enough.

The worry for Albion is that the pack are closing, and the lack of goals is a worry. Our goal difference is the smallest of any top team after 14 games in last 16 seasons. Anything possible but recent form and forthcoming fixtures suggest top two is optimistic.

 

[Norman Baker suck my lozenge]

Were loose.

 

[Prince Monolulu]

Early doors, game of two halves and all that. Wheel sea.

 

[Superphil]

How many of those teams were unbeaten after 14?

 

[Icy Gull]

We are being reeled in and that's a fact. The Tuesday games will prove very interesting. If we can keep top spot It will be a big achievement.

 

[Superphil]

Wednesday

 

[Icy Gull]

Has a team ever been top after 14 games but not won a game by more than a goal? I doubt it, BHA setting more records

 

[Hampster Gull]

Doomed

 

[el punal]

We are being reeled in and that's a fact. The Tuesday games will prove very interesting. If we can keep top spot It will be a big achievement.

Yes, but we've been reeled in all season, and yet, no one has managed to catch us. Over the last few weeks second place has been like musical chairs with Middlesbrough, Hull, Reading, Birmingham and Burnley taking the number two slot. All of them trying but not succeeding in knocking us off the top.

The remarkable thing about us heading the table is we are there without really achieving top gear. It says an awful lot about our character and resilience, and, Chris Hughton's management skills.

Like the Reading match, Tuesday's game against Sheffield Wednesday will be another test of our resolve. Come through that and the doubters maybe will acknowledge that we can be the real deal.

 

[Silverhatch]

Read some of the other boards. No one expects us to last the course and almost universally the opinion is that we will finish outside the play offs. Id really love to go to Wednesday and spank them. Even then we'd be in a false position.

 

[nwgull]

Yes, but we've been reeled in all season, and yet, no one has managed to catch us. Over the last few weeks second place has been like musical chairs with Middlesbrough, Hull, Reading, Birmingham and Burnley taking the number two slot. All of them trying but not succeeding in knocking us off the top.

The remarkable thing about us heading the table is we are there without really achieving top gear. It says an awful lot about our character and resilience, and, Chris Hughton's management skills.

Like the Reading match, Tuesday's game against Sheffield Wednesday will be another test of our resolve. Come through that and the doubters maybe will acknowledge that we can be the real deal.

This is what I was going to say. We only had a 1 point lead over Midds before the Leeds game, but it was a completely different picture 2 wins later. A run of 2-3 good results makes a massive dffierence, and I'm confident that we can string a few together providing we don't suffer too many more injuries or suspensions.

 

[Icy Gull]

Read some of the other boards. No one expects us to last the course and almost universally the opinion is that we will finish outside the play offs. Id really love to go to Wednesday and spank them. Even then we'd be in a false position.

Win against Wednesday and I will finally believe that we can win this division.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Wigan in 04/05 were only unbeaten side, exactly same record as Albion.

 

[warmleyseagull]

How many of those teams were unbeaten after 14?

Wigan in 04/05 were the only other unbeaten side - had exactly same record as Albion

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Read some of the other boards. No one expects us to last the course and almost universally the opinion is that we will finish outside the play offs. Id really love to go to Wednesday and spank them. Even then we'd be in a false position.

Yes, probably frantically pointing to their 442 league predicton article, and crying that it's not fair

 

[warmleyseagull]

Read some of the other boards. No one expects us to last the course and almost universally the opinion is that we will finish outside the play offs. Id really love to go to Wednesday and spank them. Even then we'd be in a false position.

Uninformed comment. We have played 4 of top 10 (Hull, Fulham. Reading, Cardiff). Of the top 6, Brum, Burnley and Derby have also played 4, and Hull and Boro played 5. So little difference, which shows a) that there are a lot of intersting games coming up; b) what is important is current form

 

[Official Old Man]

It's November and to find The Albion one has to start at the top of the league and work down, stopping very quickly. We are the number one, top of the league, the one the others are chasing. Can we run faster than them? I hope so with a bit of luck and a few more goals. Live the dream.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

This division is very unusual however and past statistics irrelevant.
Probably never again will teams as strong as those 2nd to 5th be all 2 points per game.
Derby are 5th despite only losing a single game
If we lose our next/only game we COULD ourselves be down to 5th in less than 60 hours.
Don't have nightmares

 

[Icy Gull]

J

This division is very unusual however and past statistics irrelevant.
Probably never again will teams as strong as those 2nd to 5th be all 2 points per game.
Derby are 5th despite only losing a single game
If we lose our next/only game we COULD ourselves be down to 5th in less than 60 hours.
Don't have nightmares

Which is why I love this division. The bottom team can and often does hold or beat the top team. It is so unpredictable and that is what makes it so good. The standard of football is pretty good too. I pay to be entertained so no complaints from me this season. I'll be gutted if we fall away but come next season we can do it all again..should we fail to go up.

Last season was awful but I have enjoyed all the others.

 

[daveinprague]

Slightly concerned our play may get to be more defensive than attacking to preserve the run.