Today's Henley By-Election

[Robot Chicken]

With Boris doing his thing as London Mayor, Henley held a by-election today. I'm surprised it hasn't been mentioned on NSC yet.

Boris had a majority of 12,793 in 2005, with the Lib Dems in second and Labour third. I can't see Henley falling for the Lib Dems so I'm expecting a thumping Tory win.

The candidates:
Chris Adams, UK Independence Party
Derek Allpass, English Democrats
Harry Bear, The Fur Play Party
Louise Cole - Independent (Miss Great Britain Party)
Amanda Harrington - Independent (Miss Great Britain Party)
John Howell - Conservatives
Stephen Kearney - Liberal Democrats
Richard McKenzie - Labour
Bananaman Owen - Monster Raving Loony Party
Timothy Rait - British National Party
Dick Rodgers - The Common Good
Mark Stevenson - Greens

Mind you, it would be interesting to have one of THESE as an MP:

Bananaman Owen

Louise Cole

Amanda Harrington

 

[itszamora]

I'd be tempted to vote for the last one, not only is she hot but the three main parties all have pretty strong reasons to not vote for them in my view.

 

[Beach Hut]

I'd be tempted to vote for the last one, not only is she hot but the three main parties all have pretty strong reasons to not vote for them in my view.

Agreed, top totty

 

[tip top]

 

[Blackadder]

It's madness I tell you!


Louise Cole - Independent (Miss Great Britain Party)
Amanda Harrington - Independent (Miss Great Britain Party)

Going against each other?

They will split the vote!

Neither will get in now!

 

[7:18]

who won then?

 

[Robot Chicken]

The Tories

The Conservatives have kept hold of Henley after the resignation of Tory MP Boris Johnson prompted a by-election.

He will be replaced by Oxfordshire councillor John Howell, who thanked voters and admitted he "had big shoes to fill".

The turnout was just over 50%, compared with 67.9% at the 2005 General Election.

The Tories won with a majority of 10,116. The Lib Dems came second, while Labour, in fifth, lost its deposit.

 

[Juan Albion]

Mind you, it would be interesting to have one of THESE as an MP:

Bananaman Owen

I'm sure if Bananaman won he would have resigned rather than take his seat. Unless they've changed things, it was against OMRL Party rules to win and he would have to be turfed out of the party. Although I do vaguely remember they made an exception for some guy/gal that won a parish council seat (I think) when they won because no-one stood against them. Bunch of loonies! Maybe it was that woman who then defected to the BNP!

 

[Vankleek Hill Seagull]

I think the main fact with this by-election is that Labour came 5th being beaten by the two main parties and the Greens and the BNP.

I wonder what Gordon Brown will be thinking as he munches on his porridge.

 

[Tom Bombadil]

How long before labour ditch Brown?

 

[Tom Bombadil]

Is Amanda Harrington wearing knickers?

 

[coventrygull]

Goodbye Gordon

 

[bigc]

I think the main fact with this by-election is that Labour came 5th being beaten by the two main parties and the Greens and the BNP.

I wonder what Gordon Brown will be thinking as he munches on his porridge.

Not wishing to defend Brown, but I would wager both those parties spent more money than Labour in the campaign. The party is very low on money and while they could have saved face by running a campaign, it was probably cheaper to lose their deposit because there was never a hope in hell of winning.

 

[Robot Chicken]

Not wishing to defend Brown, but I would wager both those parties spent more money than Labour in the campaign. The party is very low on money and while they could have saved face by running a campaign, it was probably cheaper to lose their deposit because there was never a hope in hell of winning.

It might be CHEAPER to lose their deposit but it just looks like they raised the white flag. At least put some fight into the campaign, think of the bigger picture.

 

[larus]

Not wishing to defend Brown, but I would wager both those parties spent more money than Labour in the campaign. The party is very low on money and while they could have saved face by running a campaign, it was probably cheaper to lose their deposit because there was never a hope in hell of winning.

I think this is too simplistic a view. Even if no advertising was done, this is a horrendous blow for Labour. They were never going to win, but to get less than 5% of the vote must be causing serious discussions within the leadership of Labour. They are really stuck now. Gordon Brown is a liability, but to remove him and then not call an election would be political suicide IMO. The country just wouldn't accept it a second time.

 

[Dandyman]

and where it to be repeated in Brighthelmstone...


Brighton Kemptown
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP Desmond Turner (LAB) Electorate 64,019 Turnout 60.30% Top
2005 Votes 2005 Share Prediction
LAB 15,266 39.54% 29.05%
CON 13,151 34.06% 45.32%
LIB 6,554 16.98% 13.38%
OTH 3,389 8.78% 11.62%
MIN 246 0.64% 0.64%
LAB Majority 2,115 5.48% Pred Maj 16.27% CON Gain
Results for 2005 implied from new boundary calculations

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brighton Pavilion
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP David Lepper (LAB) Electorate 69,699 Turnout 63.59% Top
2005 Votes 2005 Share Prediction
LAB 15,956 36.00% 25.51%
CON 10,343 23.34% 34.42%
MIN 9,252 20.87% 20.87%
LIB 7,071 15.95% 12.57%
OTH 1,699 3.83% 6.63%
LAB Majority 5,613 12.66% Pred Maj 8.91% CON Gain
Results for 2005 implied from new boundary calculations

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Care of the Election Calculus website, although I think they underestimate the possibility of the Greens capturing Pavilion, especially if it comes clear to Labour and/or Lib-Dem voters then the seat could turn Tory.

 

[The Clown of Pevensey Bay]

Assuming a uniform swing, that result (ie the changes in share of the vote for each party) repeated across the UK would result in a Tory majority of 16, according to Electoral Calculus.

Sounds about right to me. Although I don't think the Lib Dems will present quite so much of a challenge, and Labour will instead lose seats to the SNP.

 

[bigc]

From what I've heard, the Tory candidate is fairly odious for Pavilion, some ex-Dr from Newsround!

My prediction for the local area..

Brighton Pavilion will either stay Lab or go Green, if Greens look like they might win, some Tories may back them who think their candidate is a bit rubbish(which is he, from what I've heard) and any Lib Dem with sense would vote Green. Add to that Lepper leaving and his personal profile with voters going, the Greens certainly have every chance.

Brighton Kemptown/Hove= Tory victory, I still can't believe they didn't win Hove in 2005.

Lewes will stay Lib Dem, and knowing Stormin' Norman, he'll probably increase his majority!

 

[coventrygull]

Not wishing to defend Brown, but I would wager both those parties spent more money than Labour in the campaign. The party is very low on money and while they could have saved face by running a campaign, it was probably cheaper to lose their deposit because there was never a hope in hell of winning.

Are you really trying to say that the BNP and Greens have more money to waste than Labour.

 

[bigc]

Are you really trying to say that the BNP and Greens have more money to waste than Labour.

At the moment it wouldn't surprise me!