To the amateur Meterologists(sp?) on here

[Dave the OAP]

So the cause of all this weather is the Jet Stream that is currently flowing just off Portugal so driving the Low Pressure and rain our way coming from the South west. This happened two years ago, when we had a completely shite summer.

How does the jet stream actually move north and south? Is there evidence to suggest it is doing so now or is the long range forecast that we are in for another crap summer?

the weather for Friday till middle of next week is supposed to be worse than last week!!

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Has the jet stream been affected by global warming ?

 

[TWOCHOICEStom]

Hi, I did a geography degree. So I've heard of the jet stream.

Hope that helps!

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

What's the gulf stream?

 

[Digweeds Trousers]

great question. I fear i will be losing cricket every saturday at this rate
it's possibly the most dismal start to a summer that I can imagine
Where is Papa Lazarou? urel;y he is as good at this type of symopsis as he was with snow?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

At a basic level - the jet stream marks the boundary between (in our case) cold polar air and warm tropical air. The jet is a result of the temperature differential between these 2.

The position of the jet is driven by the prevalent pressure setup at the time. So, if we get a large high pressure to our north (in the polar airmass) the jet would be forced south over us.

This boundary zone, as well as containing the jet at altitude, also contains the active storm systems, also driven by the sharp temperature differential.

The pattern of the jet can go from directly across the Altantic (zonal) to in large loops or meanders (meridional). In either setup depending upon the pressure patterns, the position can become fixed. What we have experienced over the last 3 or 4 summers is an abnormally souterly flowing jet stream, which has got locked into this position (across southern England) - which gives a seemingly unending series of low pressure systems.

Interestingly the overall trend over the last 10-15 years in the N Hemishere is for the polar front to move northwards each year (climate change?), but in the UK we've seen it a lot further south than it should be.

The key is in the summer we'd expect the jet to weaken and be much further north than it currently is.

Does that help Dave?

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

What's the gulf stream?

Is it Tony Bloom's private jet

 

[Papa Lazarou]

As a further note

What we want to see in the summer is the establishment of a semi-permanent Azores High, which will tend to extend into Europe from mid-Atlantic. This is the typical summer pressure pattern.

What we're seeing is continual northerly 'blocking' with pressure high toward Greenland or Iceland, which prevents the establishment of high pressure further south.

It's frustrating. As a snow lover, we seem to be getting classic winter setups in the summer and the reverse in the winter.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

So the cause of all this weather is the Jet Stream that is currently flowing just off Portugal so driving the Low Pressure and rain our way coming from the South west. This happened two years ago, when we had a completely shite summer.

How does the jet stream actually move north and south? Is there evidence to suggest it is doing so now or is the long range forecast that we are in for another crap summer?

the weather for Friday till middle of next week is supposed to be worse than last week!!

El niño/nina cold/hot Pacific current/weather system is the daddy that affects us all with the impact of it's positioning

 

[Doc Lynam]

El niño/nina cold/hot Pacific current/weather system is the daddy that affects us all with the impact of it's positioning

Has it been moving alot this year?

 

[swindonseagull]

What's the gulf stream?

its a nice modern executive jet..... The World's Most Advanced Business Jet Aircraft - Gulfstream

 

[Tony Towner's Fridge]

What's the gulf stream?

It's where I drive my ball, nearly everytime I play!

Bloody annoying it is too!

TNBA

TTF

 

[beorhthelm]

Has the jet stream been affected by global warming ?

in princple it can be. however, it should in theory cause heating up so make the stream move further north. we dont see this. we dont see alot of things predicted by global warming.

 

[bn1&bn3 Albion]

It's where I drive my ball, nearly everytime I play!

Bloody annoying it is too!

TNBA

TTF

 

[Muhammad - I’m hard - Bruce Lee]

hope the bloody weather sorts itself out for the REMF golf day next friday

 

[Rugrat]

we dont see alot of things predicted by global warming.

which is why they changed it to "climate change" I think

 

[Digweeds Trousers]

What's the view then Papa - are we doomed to never-ending loop of low pressure and shitty weather or is there a chance that things could change for the better?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

What's the view then Papa - are we doomed to never-ending loop of low pressure and shitty weather or is there a chance that things could change for the better?

There is some hope that high pressure will establish (at least temporaily) over the UK next week. We may not get a heatwave from it (although that is possible) but at least it would be more seasonal, and a vast improvment on what we've had for the last couple of months.

There is still disagreement between the different models, but all play with an encroaching Azores High, and the jet migrating northwards.

I'd go for something of this type, with perhaps a brief high, and then a more traditional spell, with the jet stream to the north of the UK, and the south periodically under the influence of high pressure over the continent, with cooler spells as front brush past us to the north.

 

[chucky1973]

There is some hope that high pressure will establish (at least temporaily) over the UK next week. We may not get a heatwave from it (although that is possible) but at least it would be more seasonal, and a vast improvment on what we've had for the last couple of months.

There is still disagreement between the different models, but all play with an encroaching Azores High, and the jet migrating northwards.

I'd go for something of this type, with perhaps a brief high, and then a more traditional spell, with the jet stream to the north of the UK, and the south periodically under the influence of high pressure over the continent, with cooler spells as front brush past us to the north.

I hope your right, but fear the wet weather is going to continue for a while longer yet, the shame is my daughters and I have created a cracking veg garden and its just not working due to the weather, it really does need a prolonged spell of warmth and sun, but I cant see it happening, every forecast you look at tells the same story....unsettled and favouring the low pressure side.

 

[Dave the OAP]

There is some hope that high pressure will establish (at least temporaily) over the UK next week. We may not get a heatwave from it (although that is possible) but at least it would be more seasonal, and a vast improvment on what we've had for the last couple of months.

There is still disagreement between the different models, but all play with an encroaching Azores High, and the jet migrating northwards.

I'd go for something of this type, with perhaps a brief high, and then a more traditional spell, with the jet stream to the north of the UK, and the south periodically under the influence of high pressure over the continent, with cooler spells as front brush past us to the north.

WOOOHOOO...Papa has predicted summer is on its way next week.