[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - The Staying Up Tracker - season 21-22 Final Update - 11 ABOVE

[pb21]

Meanwhile Crystal Palace are bottom of 'The Other 14' Twitter tracker with only 3 home games left against Bottom 14 clubs. So much for the 'Hardest start since football began' nonsense

I'm not sure that's correct?

[tweet]1492936999979913218[/tweet]

 

[McTavish]

All to play for but our position highlights the tough run to come.

And also emphasises that everyone from Leeds down is far from safe.

 

[Giraffe]

And also emphasises that everyone for Leeds down is far from safe.

Certainly. Although that does rather hinge on Burnley rediscovering the ability to score, which seems unlikely right now.

 

[Berty23]

Certainly. Although that does rather hinge on Burnley rediscovering the ability to score, which seems unlikely right now.

You just ruined Saturday!

 

[Madafwo]

I haven't been on NSC for about 6 months but recently I've been keeping an eye on this thread and the fact that it's been 2 days since the game and no one has posted this is shocking.



You're a fudging disgrace, the lot of you.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Meanwhile Crystal Palace are bottom of 'The Other 14' Twitter tracker with only 3 home games left against Bottom 14 clubs. So much for the 'Hardest start since football began' nonsense

Indeed , and their away form is dire (freak win against City aside)

 

[Giraffe]

I haven't been on NSC for about 6 months but recently I've been keeping an eye on this thread and the fact that it's been 2 days since the game and no one has posted this is shocking.

View attachment 145123

You're a fudging disgrace, the lot of you.

Reprimand taken. Must do better...

 

[Giraffe]

Marvellous scenes.

Have we ever been 7 (Seven) over before?

Yes, but that is the previous highest matched. One more point for the record. We beat Everton on 29th December 2018 to go 7 points ahead of the tracker and we maintained that 7 points ahead until we lost to Fulham on 29th January 2019. We finished that season on minus 4.

Looking back that season really did end badly as we were still 6 over 9th March 2019 when we beat Palace, so lost ground by 10 points by the end of the season. A sobering lesson in not counting your chickens!

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Certainly. Although that does rather hinge on Burnley rediscovering the ability to score, which seems unlikely right now.

Strewth. You've done it now.

 

[Giraffe]

Just to add to this see the graph below showing all seasons performance against the tracker. We generally end the season poorly on this measurement!

 

[Igzilla]

Does go to show what a shocker 18-19 was!

 

[Bold Seagull]

So, after 23 games we're +7 on tracker, that is +0.3 pts per game above tracker.

15 games left, if we convert those the same, that's another +4.6 pts above tracker so +11.6 in total above tracker at the end of the season.

#TrustTheTracker

 

[Giraffe]

Does go to show what a shocker 18-19 was!

Yes! I must admit until I went back and looked I hadn’t realised how bad a fall away it was. Dreadful run of not beating teams we were predicted to beat. That’s probably the difference between that season and this. Then we needed to get a lot of expected points to stay ahead whereas this season we still have a lot of potential to get more bonus points.

 

[Acker79]

Does go to show what a shocker 18-19 was!

Yes! I must admit until I went back and looked I hadn’t realised how bad a fall away it was. Dreadful run of not beating teams we were predicted to beat. That’s probably the difference between that season and this. Then we needed to get a lot of expected points to stay ahead whereas this season we still have a lot of potential to get more bonus points.

In fairness, it's the only other seasion we've been +7 above the predicted total at any other time, and the low point of -5 was beaten the very next season. I think calling the whole season a shocker is a bit unfair on the first 24 games. Even as late as 29 games (3/4!) into the season we were +6 over the prediction (a 2nd highest that has only been matched by this season).

I'd say it highlights how the results for most of that season are better than usually credited. Only soured, probably, by that late drop in results, and the dour football.

 

[Machiavelli]

In fairness, it's the only other seasion we've been +7 above the predicted total at any other time, and the low point of -5 was beaten the very next season. I think calling the whole season a shocker is a bit unfair on the first 24 games. Even as late as 29 games (3/4!) into the season we were +6 over the prediction (a 2nd highest that has only been matched by this season).

I'd say it highlights how the results for most of that season are better than usually credited. Only soured, probably, by that late drop in results, and the dour football.

Yes, but the things that stand out to me from that season are:
-- those three one-nils in a row (Wolves, Newcastle and A N Other -- West Ham?). We were probably battered on xG in all of those, but stole victories. This little run in no small part contributed substantially to our being so far ahead of the tracker as 2018 reached 2019
-- Murray scored a load of goals in that first half of the season. He got a couple against Fulham in the first half, Propper then hit the bar. Mitrovic then bullied Duffy and Dunk (the only player to do that), and we lost 4-2. He stopped scoring from that game onwards, and we stopped winning.
-- we then went on to lose a load of games at home against teams in the bottom half, Southampton being one but, most memorably, Bournemouth then Cardiff within a few days (these are two of the only Amex PL home games I've missed)
-- CH eked a few points through draws (eg Wolves, Aresnal) that secured our survival. We were clearly on a downward slide, and Bloom acted the day after the last game of the season

 

[dolphins]

And of course, still SEVEN over on the tracker!

The disappointment of the result, and the dodgy reffing, has been tempered by the tracker still giving me the faith (and something to do with the 15% - yes, you read that correctly, 15%! - Tiny Rebel Quadruple IPA which I had during the second half...)

 

[Giraffe]

Yes still seven over. Need to win the next two to maintain that though.

 

[Change at Barnham]

According to the tracker, in the 14 games we have remaining there are 8 games that are free hits with no points expected.

If we can get the 7 points expected from our next 3 games against Burnley, Villa and Newcastle we will be very strongly placed for a late run into Europe.

 

[marcos3263]

None of this makes any difference when you are an 8 year old allowed to stay up late on a school night to watch Brighton. my son was distraught last night. he had a tear at the Ronaldo goal, was visibly upset at the dunk sending off and howled at the late second. I tried to tell him that this was expected, its better than a 0-1 loss to Stoke on a rainy Tuesday night, not to be a girl, etc etc but none of that helped.

Im taking him to the Amex Saturday and need a win or else - tracker be damned.

 

[jcdenton08]

It really is a nightmare run coming up after Burnley and Villa.